December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ24) Friday closed up +448 (+5.30%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ24) closed up +413 (+5.62%).
Cocoa prices soared Friday, with NY cocoa posting a 2-1/2 month high and London cocoa posting a 4-1/4 month high. The impact of recent heavy rains on the Ivory Coast is pushing cocoa prices sharply higher, based on reports of high mortality rates of cocoa buds on trees because of the heavy rain.
Gains in London cocoa accelerated Friday after the British pound (^GBPUSD) tumbled to a 6-1/2 month low. The weaker pound boosts cocoa, which is priced in terms of sterling.
Recent adverse weather in West Africa is underpinning cocoa prices. Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast flooded fields, increased disease risk, and affected crop quality. Recently harvested cocoa beans from the Ivory Coast signal lower quality, with counts of about 105 beans per 100 grams. The Ivory Coast cocoa regulator allows exporters to buy bean counts of 80 to 100 or slightly more for every 100 grams, with the best quality cocoa having the lower count.
Shrinking global cocoa stockpiles are bullish for prices. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 1-1/2 years and fell to a 19-year low Friday of 1,595,940 bags.
A bearish factor for cocoa prices is increased supplies from the Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer. Government data Monday showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 548,494 MT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to November 17, up +32% from 415,523 MT shipped the same time last year. Meanwhile, cocoa prices were undercut when the Ivory Coast regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao on October 18 raised its Ivory Coast 2024/25 cocoa production estimate to a range of 2.1-2.2 MMT from a June forecast of 2.0 MMT.
Recent global cocoa demand news was mixed. The National Confectioners Association on October 17 reported that North American Q3 cocoa grindings rose +12% y/y to 109,264 MT. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 Asian cocoa grinding rose +2.6% y/y to 216,998 MT. However, the European Cocoa Association reported that European Q3 cocoa grindings fell -3.3% y/y to 354,335 MT.
Cocoa found support after Ghana's Cocoa Board (Cocobod) on August 20 cut its 2024/25 Ghana cocoa production estimate to 650,000 MT from a June forecast of 700,000 MT. Due to bad weather and crop disease, Ghana's 2023/24 coca harvest sank to a 23-year low of 425,000 MT. Ghana is the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, and its 2024/25 cocoa harvest begins in October.
An increase in cocoa production by Cameroon, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer, is bearish for cocoa prices. On August 21, Cameroon's National Cocoa and Coffee Board reported that in 2023/24 (Aug/July), Cameroon cocoa production rose +1.2% y/y to 266,725. Also, Nigeria's August cocoa exports rose by +6.8% y/y to 14,984 MT. Nigeria is the world's sixth-largest cocoa producer.
In a bullish factor, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) on August 30 raised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -462,000 MT from May's -439,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO also cut its 2023/24 cocoa production estimate to 4.330 MMT from May's 4.461 MMT. ICCO projected a 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio of a 46-year low of 27.4%.
