December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ24) Thursday closed up +436 (+6.30%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ24) closed up +329 (+5.99%).
Cocoa prices surged on Thursday as a decline in the dollar sparked short covering in cocoa futures. Also, comments Thursday from the CEO of Barry Callebaut, one of the world's largest chocolate producers, lifted cocoa prices when he said that while cocoa crops in West Africa are showing "significant improvement versus last year," they are still not at levels seen in the 2022/23 season.
Shrinking global cocoa stockpiles are also bullish for prices. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 17 months and fell to a 19-year low Thursday of 1,718,356 bags.
On Wednesday, cocoa prices fell to 1-week lows after the dollar rallied to a 4-month high and as the Ivory Coast cocoa harvest accelerated. Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 365,072 MT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to November 3, up +26% from 288,686 MT shipped the same time last year. The Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa producer.
Cocoa prices were undercut when the Ivory Coast regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao on October 18 raised its Ivory Coast 2024/25 cocoa production estimate to a range of 2.1-2.2 MMT from a June forecast of 2.0 MMT.
Recent global cocoa demand news was mixed. The National Confectioners Association on October 17 reported that North American Q3 cocoa grindings rose +12% y/y to 109,264 MT. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 Asian cocoa grinding rose +2.6% y/y to 216,998 MT. However, the European Cocoa Association reported that European Q3 cocoa grindings fell -3.3% y/y to 354,335 MT.
Cocoa found support after Ghana's Cocoa Board (Cocobod) on August 20 cut its 2024/25 Ghana cocoa production estimate to 650,000 MT from a June forecast of 700,000 MT. Due to bad weather and crop disease, Ghana's 2023/24 coca harvest sank to a 23-year low of 425,000 MT. Ghana is the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, and its 2024/25 cocoa harvest begins in October.
An increase in cocoa production by Cameroon, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer, is bearish for cocoa prices. On August 21, Cameroon's National Cocoa and Coffee Board reported that in 2023/24 (Aug/July), Cameroon cocoa production rose +1.2% y/y to 266,725. Also, Nigeria's August cocoa exports rose by +6.8% y/y to 14,984 MT. Nigeria is the world's sixth-largest cocoa producer.
In a bullish factor, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) on August 30 raised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -462,000 MT from May's -439,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO also cut its 2023/24 cocoa production estimate to 4.330 MMT from May's 4.461 MMT. ICCO projected a 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio of a 46-year low of 27.4%.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
