A Coalition proposal to limit the rollout of renewable energy could stop at least $58bn of private investment in new developments and halt billions of dollars in flow-on spending in communities, new analysis has warned.
The estimation by consultants Green Energy Markets, on behalf of industry group the Clean Energy Council (CEC), assessed what would happen if renewable energy in Australia was capped at 54% of total use, the level assumed in Frontier Economics modelling relied on by the Coalition to support its nuclear power policy.
The analysis compared this with Labor’s promise to have 82% renewable energy by 2030. It found the 54% level would likely be met in 2028. Stopping industry expansion at that level would result in nearly 29 gigawatts of new large-scale solar and windfarms not being built.
Those developments would be expected to lead to 37,700 full-time-equivalent construction jobs and 5,000 ongoing jobs in operations and maintenance.
The CEC’s chief executive, Kane Thornton, said the Coalition’s position would cost “real dollars for farmers, real dollars for country towns and real blue-collar jobs that pay Australians’ bills”.
“The clean energy sector injected $40bn in essential electricity infrastructure into the national economy over the past five years alone,” Thornton said. “We need all sides of politics to embrace this private-sector investment into regional Australia.”
The analysis was released ahead of a debate between the climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, and the opposition shadow minister, Ted O’Brien, on Thursday.
The Coalition has said it would cover the gap created by slowing renewable energy construction by using more fossil fuel energy. It says it would extend the life of coal-fired power plants and use more gas power until it could build taxpayer-owned nuclear plants at seven sites, mostly after 2040.
It has not said it would limit renewable energy to 54% but it has said it would not support as much solar and wind energy, and would scrap Labor’s $20bn rewiring the nation fund to build transmission links across the country.
Labor has released separate analysis ahead of the debate arguing the Coalition’s nuclear policy could lead to blackouts, costing the economy billions, because of a reliance on ageing coal-plants, some of which have suffered outages in recent years.
It said energy department advice provided to the government before the election was called showed on average 22% of the country’s coal-fired capacity was unavailable last year due to shutdowns or reduced operations. More than 60% of Australia’s capacity is more than 40 years old and approaching the end of its life. The energy department advice said a two-hour blackout across the national grid would cost the economy about $2.8bn.
Bowen said the analysis showed Australia’s “ageing, expensive and unreliable coal plants” were a risk to the grid and the economy. “Australia needs new, cheap power now,” he said.
While the major parties debate energy policy in Canberra, the Greens’ leader, Adam Bandt, plans to launch a plan that would give renters the right to install taxpayer-funded solar panels to cut their power bills.
Pitched as a measure to both address cost-of-living concerns and the climate crisis, the Greens proposal would allow renters to request a solar panel system of up to 8 kilowatts to be installed. Landlords would not be able to refuse except under certain conditions, including restrictive body corporate rules, engineering challenges or local energy congestion issues.
The Greens have proposed that the program would be paid for through a new $10bn fund established through the Snowy Hydro, and the panels would be listed as an asset on the public agency’s balance sheet. Landlords could choose to either pay for the panels when the property was sold or earlier.
Bandt said the policy was “good for renters, good for the environment”.
“There are seven million renters in Australia and they deserve to be able to cut their power bills and reduce their emissions, just like homeowners can,” he said.
He said Labor had effectively adopted a Greens policy this week by promising a 30% subsidy for household batteries. “I hope they adopt our renters’ right to solar, too,” he said.
