March NY world sugar #11 (SBH25) Monday closed up +0.62 (+2.87%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH25) closed up +18.50 (+3.33%).
Sugar prices Monday rallied to 1-week highs on the prospects of further seasonal mill closures in Brazil to curb sugar production. Wilmar International projects the number of closed sugar mills in Brazil, currently at 38, to more than triple this month, sharply reducing the country's sugar output. Sugar mills in Brazil typically stop processing cane during the wetter months of December and January and can resume operations as early as March, depending on the weather. However, recent heavy rains this month in Brazil have led to sugar mills closing earlier than expected.
Sugar prices were under pressure last week and dropped to 2-month lows last Wednesday after the dollar index (DXY00) soared to a 1-year high.
The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On October 29, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board projected that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production would jump by +18% y/y to 10.35 MMT. Thailand produced 8.77 MMT of sugar in the 2023/24 season that ended in April. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.
Optimism that above-average monsoon rains in India will lead to a bumper sugar crop is negative for prices. The Indian Meteorological Department reported that India received 934.8 mm of rain during the current monsoon season as of September 30, the most in four years and 7.6% more than the comparable long-term average of 868.6 mm. India's monsoon season runs from June through September.
A supportive factor for sugar was last Tuesday's report from Unica that showed sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region during the second half of October fell -24.3% y/y to 1.785 MMT. Conversely, the cumulative 2024/25 Center-South sugar output through October rose +0.3% y/y to 37 MMT.
Recent drought and excessive heat caused fires in Brazil that damaged sugar crops in Brazil's top sugar-producing state of Sao Paulo. Sugar cane industry group Orplana said that as many as 2,000 fire outbreaks affected up to 80,000 hectares of planted sugarcane in Sao Paulo. Green Pool Commodity Specialists said that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires. Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, cut its overall 2024/25 Brazil Center South sugar production estimate on August 22 to 42 MMT from a previous forecast of 42.7 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. Similarly, Rabobank, on September 20, cut its 2024/25 Brazil sugar production forecast to 39.3 MMT from a previous forecast of 40.3 MMT, citing excessive dryness. Also, Datagro cut its 2024/25 Center-South sugar production estimate on Monday to 38.7 MMT from a September estimate of 39.3 MMT, citing drought and limited capacity by mills.
In a supportive factor for sugar prices, India's Food Ministry on August 30 lifted restrictions on sugar mills producing ethanol for the 2024/25 year that starts November, which may prolong India's sugar export curbs. Last December, India ordered sugar mills to stop using sugarcane to produce ethanol for the 2023/24 supply year to boost its sugar reserves. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, on October 3, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) said India will have 2 MMT of sugar to export next season and urged the government to lift its current sugar export restrictions.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) reported on May 13 that India's 2023/24 sugar production from Oct-Apr fell -1.6% y/y to 31.4 MMT. Also, the ISM on September 26 projected India's 2024/25 sugar production would fall by -2% y/y to 33.3 MMT and that India's 2023/24 sugar reserves will be at 8.4 MMT on September 30, compared with a May projection of 9.1 MMT.
In a supportive factor for sugar prices, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on August 30 forecasted a 2024/25 global sugar deficit of -3.58 MMT, much larger than the estimated -200,000 MT deficit for 2023/24. ISO forecasted 2024/25 global sugar production of 179.3 MMT, down -1.1% y/y from 181.3 MMT in 2023/24.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on May 23, projected that global 2024/25 sugar production would climb +1.4% y/y to a record 186.024 MMT and that global 2024/25 human sugar consumption would increase +0.8% y/y to a record 178.788 MMT. The USDA forecasted that 2024/25 global sugar ending stocks would fall -4.7% y/y to a 13-year low of 38.339 MMT.
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