Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's mass deportation plan has dominated the political conversation over the past months, from his claim that implementing it might result in "a bloody story" to his recent assertion that, were it not to happen, the U.S. will be "transformed into a third-world hellhole."
Beyond the statements, Trump has also hinted at specific measures around immigration such as terminating the CHNV humanitarian parole and the CBP One App, both of which were implemented by the Biden administration. He has also anticipated that other programs such as the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which are sent to end within the next two years unless extended, could also see the same fate.
In all, up to 2.7 million individuals could lose protection from deportation due to the expiration of current immigration safeguards, according to a report by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), which draws on data from the Department of Homeland Security,
Groups at risk include recipients of TPS from countries like Haiti, Venezuela, and El Salvador, as well as beneficiaries of humanitarian parole programs initiated under the Biden administration, such as Cubans, Ukrainians, and Afghans. A Trump administration would likely face difficulties in deporting certain populations, such as Venezuelans, due to limited cooperation from their home countries.
Analysts consulted by Forbes note that deporting long-time residents who have built lives and families in the U.S. would have wide-reaching implications for communities and the broader economy.
Research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics suggests that for every one million undocumented immigrant workers removed from the country, approximately 88,000 U.S.-born workers could lose their jobs. Deporting three million people could result in 263,000 fewer jobs for native-born Americans.
Forbes also offered some insights into the greater impact of these numbers on the U.S. economy:
"Fewer immigrant workers will also shrink the demand for U.S.-born workers due to less consumer spending on 'grocery stores, leasing offices and other nontraded services.' According to the American Immigration Council, 'Due to the loss of workers across U.S. industries, we found that mass deportation would reduce the U.S. gross domestic product by 4.2% to 6.8%."
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