Sea temperatures around Ireland have reached record breaking heights this June - with up to 5 degree hikes in some places according to satellite data.
Fair Seas Ireland fear the rise could impact everything from animal behaviour to movement and destabilise ecosystems that provide us with food, coastal protection and climate regulation.
Our oceans do the lion’s share of the work when it comes to absorbing the heat created by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
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But at just 1.3 degrees of global warming from pre-industrial levels, Met Eireann climatologist Paul Moore says water off Ireland’s south west coast is at 17.4 degrees - almost 4 degrees higher than the average June temperature.
And warmer waters could be partly to blame for recent flash flooding in the midlands and Tralee, as they lead to more moisture in the air which can in turn, lead to heavy rainfall.
Mr Moore said: “We are seeing sea surface temperatures around what we would get in August rather than June.
“The whole North Atlantic on our side is quite a bit above average in places.”
Paul says while satellite images show “5 degrees above average in places” their buoys are showing provisional approximate temperatures of 14.5°C in the Irish Sea, 17.4°C off Cork, 17.1°C off Donegal and 16.9°C in the deep Atlantic.
Normally, he says the Irish Sea would be 12.1 degrees and sea surfaces off the southwest coast, 14 degrees.
“There are a number of factors that’s involved here,” he added.
“Background warming due to climate change, which is ongoing, and in a linear sense is going up all the time and then you have the natural variability of El Nino-La Nina which oscillates the temperature up and down.
“We are moving into a El Nino period now which is going to push the temperature up over the next year globally.”
He said there are also factors over the Atlantic related to high pressure weather systems just to the north of us and low pressure in the mid Atlantic “which is drawing up warm water from the south to our shores”.
“Having higher sea surface temperatures around us in the west and south... gives a higher likelihood that we will stay warmer than average through the summer,” he continued.
“Any air that’s coming in over Ireland will be warmer than average too.
“Warmer air can hold more moisture - that’s in the climate projections for the future in Ireland.
“That’s why they are saying in the future we will have more intense rainfall periods.
“You might get a situation where, as it has been mostly dry... if we get intense rainfall as we have in the midlands, there has been thunderstorms and flash flooding.”
Climate expert, Professor John Sweeney, from Maynooth University said: “Ocean warming over the next few months is likely to be widely reported as the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) event proceeds.”
That’s when irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affect the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics.
The International Union for Conservation of Nature says rising sea temps “also affect the benefits humans derive from the ocean; threatening food security, increasing the prevalence of diseases, causing more extreme weather events and the loss of coastal protection”.
Dr Donal Griffin, Marine Policy Officer with Fair Seas says we are lucky our oceans soak up heat from the atmosphere, providing an “important service for humankind”.
But he raised major concerns for marine ecosystems.
He told us: “Increasing ocean temperatures can impact everything from animal behaviour and movement, as well as physiology and distribution.
“It can also destabilise and disrupt ecosystem services that humans benefit from, including food security, coastal protection and climate regulation itself.
“Rising sea surface temperatures may cause the redistribution of mobile marine species polewards as species migrate to cooler latitudes,” he continued.
“Considering the scale of the challenge, Ireland must do all it can to help prevent global warming and the resultant warming of the ocean.
“Key to this is lowering our greenhouse gas emissions as a country, and properly protecting our marine environment so it can be healthy, productive, and resilient.
“This is why ambitious new Marine Protected Area legislation which allows Ireland to protect 30% of its seas by 2030, including a 10% strictly protected target, is so important to help combat not only the biodiversity crisis, but the climate crisis also.
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