An extreme heatwave in central Asia last month was made at least 4C hotter due to the climate crisis and could have been up to 10C warmer than in a preindustrial climate, researchers said.
A new study, published by the World Weather Attribution group, warned that soaring March temperatures in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan were likely to become far more common as the planet continued warming, accelerating glacier loss and threatening water supplies, agriculture and electricity generation across the region.
In some parts of central Asia, March temperatures were as much as 15C above average. Weather stations recorded highs nearing 30C in some areas of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, far above normal springtime temperatures.
“This kind of change seems unreal,” said Dr Ben Clarke, co-author of the study and researcher at Imperial College London. “But fossil fuel burning is fundamentally altering the climate faster than humans have ever experienced.”
The 10C change above preindustrial levels was, he said, “quite frankly bonkers”.
The findings came after the World Meteorological Organisation and Europe’s Copernicus confirmed 2024 as the planet’s hottest year ever and the first that was hotter by 1.5C.
The rapid attribution analysis found the human-caused climate crisis made the five-day heatwave in central Asia at least 4C more intense.
But researchers cautioned that this might be a significant underestimate as current models failed to capture how fast March temperatures were rising in the region.
Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College, said the heatwave illustrated how even small rises in global temperature could have large, cascading effects.
“Climate change is death by a thousand cuts,” she said. “This heatwave didn’t make headlines, it happened in spring and in a region not known for blistering heatwaves, but it is impacting agriculture harvests, glacier-fed water systems, and people’s health.”
Glaciers in the region are a key water source for drinking, farming and hydropower. Their rapid melting threatens the flow of rivers like Syr Darya, which is shared by multiple countries, raising the risk of water shortages and conflict, the study said.
The heat also came during a critical time for crops, with blooming almonds, apricots and cherries at risk of premature fruit drop. Wheat harvests, already under threat from drought, are also likely to be affected, the researchers said.
The latest research, conducted by 10 scientists from American and European institutions, is one of more than 90 attribution studies by the WWA group showing how fossil fuel-driven warming is making extreme weather more frequent and intense.
Similar springtime heatwaves in central Asia can now be expected roughly once every three years – and will become hotter and more frequent unless emissions are sharply reduced.
