With every year that passes, John Pettigrew worries more and more for his neighbours on the banks on the Goulburn River.
Living in the federal electorate of Nicholls in northern Victoria, the chair of the Goulburn Valley Environment Group has long been campaigning for climate action and it is front-of-mind during the federal election.
But as well as the effects of climate change, the region could be one of the worst hit by an insurability crisis experts say is looming across the country.
"We've been forecasting for over a decade that the ability to insure properties against extreme weather events will be more difficult as time goes on," he said.
A new report from the Climate Council has found almost one in 25 Australian homes are at high risk of becoming effectively uninsurable by 2030, with the risk far higher in certain areas.
In Nicholls, which includes Shepparton, Moira, Campaspe and Mitchell, one in four homes is expected to become uninsurable as extreme weather causes insurance premiums to soar.
In Shepparton, the report found that could be the case for up to 90 per cent of homes.
'A very grave picture'
The Climate Council said riverine flooding posed the biggest risk to properties such as those in Nicholls – many of which flank the Goulburn, Broken, Campaspe and Murray rivers.
The council has urged the next federal government to "meaningfully" tackle climate change, and help Australians prepare for the worst.
"There's a very grave picture here," Climate Council research director Simon Bradshaw said.
Richmond in New South Wales and Maranoa, Moncrieff and Wright in Queensland are also in the top five high-risk electorates.
It is feared costs for the repair, maintenance and replacement of properties will increase as extreme weather patterns worsen.
"What we're measuring here is the level of risk," Dr Bradshaw said.
"Now at that level, we're saying a property is effectively uninsurable, because premiums would likely be pushed so high as to become unaffordable for most people."
Election issue
For residents in high-risk areas, like Mr Pettigrew, the outlook is devastating and will be front of mind as the May 21 federal election approaches.
Mr Pettigrew said strong leadership on the issue was "desperately needed" in Nicholls.
"I think we're fortunate that we have more candidates to choose from at this election that understand – maybe not fully – but fairly well understand climate change," he said.
Created in 2019, the Division of Nicholls is held by Nationals MP Damian Drum, who announced he would be retiring at the forthcoming election and not recontesting the seat.
Nicholls is currently the site of a three-cornered contest between Liberal Steve Brooks, Nationals candidate Sam Birrell and Independent Rob Priestly, with Labor also fielding a candidate, Bill Lodwick, who ran in the electorate in 2019.
Mr Brooks claimed his party's climate policy walked the line between reducing emissions and supporting local economies.
"We're not putting taxes on our local manufacturers or businesses or farmers, but we've got a clear goal and that is to be net zero by 2050," he said.
Mr Birrell said his party was also dedicated to this goal, but added the move to net zero should not be hurried.
"If we just rush to something because it makes us feel good, we could seriously damage our economy," he said.
If elected, Mr Priestly said he would fight for government policies that contributed to net zero, while also bringing economic opportunities to the region.
"We’re an ideal location to be at the centre of bioenergy production in Australia," he said.
"We produce the highest quantity of agricultural biomass and waste per hectare in Australia, are a major food manufacturing and transport hub, and have the population and skills base to work in these industries."
Candidate sceptical
Mr Lodwick, however, was sceptical of the Climate Council report, saying it made "extreme claims", especially regarding insurance.
"[The report] requires close examination and consideration," he said.
But Dr Bradshaw maintained the Climate Council's data only emphasised the importance of climate action in the coming decade.
"What we see with climate change is that as the atmosphere becomes warmer and wetter and more energetic, we tend to get more of our rainfall in the form of very heavy downpours, often interspersed with prolonged dry periods," he said.
"That means that already flood-prone areas are likely to face greater flood risk over the coming decades.
