Climate change caused by human activity increases the risk of devastating fires, like the ones in Los Angeles, California,according to the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network. The fires left at least 29 dead and thousands homeless.
Human-driven climate change set the stage for the devastating Los Angeles wildfires by reducing rainfall, parching vegetation, and extending the dangerous overlap between flammable drought conditions and powerful Santa Ana winds, according to an analysis published Tuesday.
The study, conducted by dozens of researchers, concluded that the fire-prone conditions fueling the blazes were approximately 35 percent more likely due to global warming caused by burning fossil fuels.
"Climate change increased the risk of the devastating LA wildfires," said Clair Barnes of Imperial College London, the lead author of the study by World Weather Attribution, an international academic collaboration.
"Drought conditions are increasingly pushing into winter, raising the likelihood of fires breaking out during strong Santa Ana winds that can transform small ignitions into deadly infernos.
"Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier, and more flammable."
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Windy conditions increasing
The study does not address the direct causes of the wildfires, which erupted around Los Angeles on 7 January, killing at least 29 people and destroying more than 10,000 homes, the most destructive in the city's history.
In the span of just three weeks, more than two dozen fires have broken out across the region, cumulatively burning more than 57,000 acres, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, as of Monday.
That’s an area nearly equivalent to Washington, D.C. and Manhattan, New York City combined.
Researchers from WWA analysed weather data and climate models to assess how such events have evolved under today's climate, which has warmed approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Using peer-reviewed methods, they found that the hot, dry, and windy conditions were 1.35 times more likely due to climate change.
Looking ahead, the study warns that under current scenarios, where global warming reaches 2.6C by 2100, similar fire-weather events in January will become a further 35 percent more likely.
Historically, October through December rainfall has marked the end of wildfire season.
However, these rains have decreased in recent decades.
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'Precipitation whiplash'
The study found that low rainfall across these months is now 2.4 times more likely during neutral El Nino conditions, leading to drier, flammable conditions persisting into the peak of the Santa Ana wind season in December and January.
The relationship between climate change and Santa Ana winds – which form in western deserts, then heat up and dry out as they flow down California's mountains – remains unclear.
While most studies predict a decline in these winds as the climate warms, some suggest hot Santa Ana wind events and particularly strong years will persist.
This year's fires followed two wet winters in 2022-2023 and 2023-2024, which spurred the growth of grass and brush. However, almost no rain this winter left the vegetation dry and highly flammable.
Globally, extreme shifts between very wet and very dry conditions, known as "precipitation whiplash," are becoming more common. These swings are driven by a warmer atmosphere that can hold and release greater amounts of moisture, exacerbating weather extremes.
(with AFP)
