Concerns over climate change are breaking the traditional left-right political divide and helping drive the 'Teal' vote as conservative voters rebel without having to choose Labor or the Greens, according to Vote Compass analysis.
Independent candidates are mounting challenges against sitting MPs in traditionally Liberal-held, wealthy electorates on a platform of climate action.
Vote Compass has already told us that more Australians mentioned climate change as their number one issue than any other topic.
We have taken Vote Compass data and examined all 151 electorates on the same issue.
A higher proportion of voters in Liberal seats like Wentworth, Kooyong, Goldstein and Mackellar listed climate change as their most important issue – above the national mean.
ABC election analyst Antony Green said Vote Compass data showed climate change cut across the usual left-right debate.
"If you look at the economy... at one end of the scale, you've got most of the Labor electorates, and at the other end, the Liberal electorates," he said.
"When you look at climate change and whether it's important, the electorates are all jumbled up on the same scale.
Green said this meant candidates like "teal" independents — mostly women taking on Coalition MPs in wealthy electorates throughout Australia — had appeal with people who traditionally voted Liberal.
"What's going on in these Liberal electorates where teal independents are doing well is that if Labor or the Greens ran on the climate change agenda in the same way, the voters would still vote Liberal because Liberal voters view Labor and the Greens as having other left-wing views they don't find attractive," Green said.
"But for an independent to run on the issue entirely who's got other conservative credentials, then they are more attractive to voters who are traditionally Liberal voters who are attracted to getting a candidate who will do something with climate change."
In Tasmania, the Hobart seat of Clark has been held by independent Andrew Wilkie since 2010.
Nyrelle Suhr, casting her vote ahead of May 21, said environment and climate change were among her top issues.
"Economy has a lot to do with it, people are losing their jobs, and COVID-19 has had a lot to do with things," she said.
Another Clark voter said he was casting his vote based on "stability in the economy".
Teal independents have also been campaigning for a federal anti-corruption commission.
The second most salient issue among independent voters was government accountability, with 16 per cent of people saying it was their most important issue this election.
In third was the environment, nominated by almost 10 per cent of independent voters.
About the data
- Vote Compass responses have been weighted by gender, age, education, language, religion, place of residence and past vote to match the Australian population, creating a nationally representative sample
- Find out more about the methodology in this explainer
