Garbage time.
It’s the scenario in which a game has become a blowout and the final result has been determined, but there’s still time left on the clock. The defense for the winning team starts playing more conservatively, which can lead to “garbage time points” for the trailing offense. Those points are meaningless as it pertains to the game’s final outcome … but they still count just like “regular points” in our fantasy matchups.
While managers shouldn’t be building their fantasy rosters based on acquiring the players who could accumulate garbage-time points on a regular basis, it’s good to know which players might often be in negative game scripts and could accumulate late points in games that are already out of reach. To find out that information, let’s look at the lowest projected team win totals on SI Sportsbook.
So, who could become this year’s version of garbage-time poster boy Blake Bortles?
Here’s a look:
Arizona Cardinals
Win total O/U: 4.5
Michael Chow/USA Today Sports
The Cardinals are projected to win the fewest games this season, and their schedule is the 11th-toughest based on Vegas' forecasted win totals. That could mean plenty of garbage points for Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz. Look for the Cardinals to be underdogs more often than not this season.
Houston Texans
Win total O/U: 5.5
The Texans have the second-lowest projected win total in the league but they also have the seventh-easiest slate based on Vegas projections. Regardless, they’ll likely be playing from behind often, so C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins (or insert random Texans wideout here), Dalton Schultz and others could benefit in garbage time.
Indianapolis Colts
Win total O/U: 6.5
Like the Texans, the Colts are expected to have a rookie quarterback under center. While their projected win total is low at 6.5, the Colts have the third-easiest slate of games based on Vegas projections. Still, Richardson, Michael Pittman Jr. and the team’s receivers could score more often in potential blowout losses.
Los Angeles Rams
Win total O/U: 6.5
The Rams have gone sideways since their Super Bowl win, so much so that they’re projected to lose double-digit games this season. Their Vegas strength of schedule is middle of the road, but they’ll find themselves in plenty of negative game scripts. That will benefit Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win total O/U: 6.5
The Buccaneers will often be underdogs with Baker Mayfield under center, but that could be good news for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and their pass catchers. And if Mayfield can’t keep the Bucs close, we could see Kyle Trask under center. Regardless, garbage time points in Tampa Bay could be reason for fantasy optimism.
Washington Commanders
Win total O/U: 6.5
The Commanders have a nice core of receivers with Terry McLaurin, sleeper Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel in the mix, and the potential for playing from behind could mean more from Sam Howell and the passing game. Vegas projected win totals have Washington facing the ninth-toughest schedule in the league, too.
Carolina Panthers
Win total O/U: 7.5
Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports
The Panthers will also go into this season with a rookie signal-caller, the third such squad that is projected to have a losing record by Vegas. Their slate is actually the third-easiest based on project win totals, but there’s a good chance they’ll be playing from behind. That could help Bryce Young, Adam Thielen and the receivers.
Chicago Bears
Win total O/U: 7.5
The Bears made a ton of moves to improve themselves in the offseason, but Vegas still projects them to have a losing record. That might be a surprise, since Chicago also has the sixth-easiest slate based on projected wins. Their division might not be so great, either, but Justin Fields could be throwing in some negative scripts.
Green Bay Packers
Win total O/U: 7.5
The Packers are projected to be a sub-.500 team for the first time in what seems like forever, and that has everything to do with Aaron Rodgers being in New York. The good news is that Jordan Love has the easiest schedule for fantasy quarterbacks, so he could be in a good position to go all garbage time in games this season.
Las Vegas Raiders
Win total O/U: 7.5
The Raiders will have a new look with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but even the folks in Sin City don’t see them as a .500 or better team. Couple that with the fact that the Silver & Black have the second-toughest slate based on Vegas win totals, and we could see Garoppolo slinging it to his receivers late in games.
New England Patriots
Win total O/U: 7.5
Mac Jones could rebound in the stat sheets after a disappointing season in which he lacked a real offensive coordinator. The fact that Vegas projects a sub-.500 season for New England, coupled with them having the hardest slate of games based on projected win totals, and Jones could bring home garbage time love.
Tennessee Titans
Could DeAndre Hopkins become a garbage time star in Tennessee? I’m not sure that will happen, but the Titans are projected to be under .500 this season. Their schedule is the eighth-easiest based on projected wins, though, and they’ll continue to run the rock a ton as long as Derrick Henry is upright and on the field.
