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Teladoc (TDOC) was one of the top beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic. The telemedicine provider shot into the spotlight in 2020, as the market suddenly realized its growth potential. With patients increasingly choosing to have their medical needs met online, shares soared nearly 300% from the start of January to their peak near $294 set in February 2021.
But as quickly as it shot up, Teladoc shares have fallen from their peak to trade near $10 now. Shares are down more than 80% over the past three years and are down 26% over the past 52 weeks.
However, there may be reason for investor optimism. Shares are outperforming the broader market in 2025, up 20% in the year to date. Plus, one key investor thinks Teladoc is a “hidden” winner.
Citron Research Believes Teladoc Has AI Catalysts Worth Considering
Citron Research, run by noted investor Andrew Left and known for publishing high-profile short reports, believes that Teladoc is a company that has significant upside potential due to artificial intelligence (AI). This is particularly interesting because it seems most of the market views Teladoc as a “pandemic relic.”
Citron’s view is that other AI-driven stocks, which rely on hype to support valuations that are largely out of touch with reality, stand in stark contrast to Teladoc. That’s because Teladoc’s core technology is out of favor with the broader market. Left also sees room for AI integration in its core business, and called out its recent acquisition of Catapult Health as a positive.
It’s worth noting that Teladoc has not marketed itself as an AI company. However, Citron believes it could be an M&A target that Big Tech firms may find attractive given its multi-year weakness.
Teladoc’s Fundamentals Point to an Intriguing Opportunity
Teladoc isn’t yet generating net profits, but it is a tech company with meaningful top-line growth as well as growth in gross profit. Its gross profit has increased from $368.9 million in 2019 to $1.8 billion in 2024. If Teladoc can take control of its expenses, perhaps due through AI integrations or other efficiencies, without impacting the company’s overall growth trajectory, it could see meaningful EBITDA growth. This should translate into positive net income over time.
Of course, the question is just how long it could take Teladoc to achieve profitability.
Teladoc does appear to be trending in the right direction. However, most investors today appear to be scrutinizing their portfolios, focusing on names that have pristine balance sheets and meaningful cash flow growth. If Citron is right, and this stock is about to turn the corner, perhaps the recent market-driven beatdown could be a buying opportunity.
Q4 Earnings Just In
Teladoc reported fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, Feb. 26 which did little to assuage investor concerns about the company’s path to profitability. Aside from noting the company’s guidance for EBITDA margins of 14.8%, plus or minus 50 basis points, it’s unclear when management believes it can achieve break even and move into the black.
Teladoc reported full year revenue of $2.57 billion in 2024, which was actually down 1% on a year-over-year basis. Q4 revenue was down 3% year-over-year, so the company’s 15%-plus decline in Thursday trading is understandable.
Here’s What Other Analysts Think
Broadly speaking, Wall Street analysts appear to be relatively neutral on TDOC stock, with a consensus “Hold” on the name. Out of 25 analysts covering the telemedicine giant, only six rate the stock as a “Strong Buy.” The stock has one “Moderate Buy” rating and 18 “Hold” ratings.
Analysts’ average price target of $11.10 implies just 17% upside potential, but investors should note that most of that upside is a result of its Q4 earnings-driven selloff.
There is certainly some speculative upside with this name. But at current levels, it may already be baked into Teladoc’s valuation. Without any visibility into its path to profitability, it’s going to be hard for most value investors to jump aboard Teladoc at current levels. Additionally, speculation and hype are not really the factors moving the market in 2025, at least not to start the year.
