As Christmas Day rolls around each year, amid the festive chaos and the shopping and the planning and the socialising, the same question is at the back of everyone’s minds: What is the weather going to be like?
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. It has been a year of unpredictable weather and meteorologists are yet to unveil what they think will be in store for Christmas Day.
There are some limitations to predicting the weather, even mere days in advance, so the Bureau of Meteorology is yet to say what kind of weather can be expected across Australia.
On December 16, nine days out from Christmas, Weatherzone released a news story that outlined a few possible weather scenarios for December 25.
Weatherzone showed three models that forecast possible rainfall and what the maximum temperature might be.
The ECMWF Model, the GFS Model and the ACCESS-G Model have vastly different results for Christmas Day.
Weatherzone explained modern computer-based weather models can do an “outstanding job” at predicting the weather patterns three to five days out.
However, beyond that, they aren’t that great.
“At longer ranges of seven to 10 days, there is usually so much uncertainty in the forecast that it’s better to look at broad weather patterns rather than what to expect at any one location,” Weatherzone said.
A rough idea of the weather at Christmas
The disparity in the three maps is the reason why meteorologists can’t accurately forecast the Christmas Day weather.
But we do have a very rough idea about what to expect, in a more general sense.
Weatherzone pointed out the models predict it will be raining in several states and territories on Christmas.
As for how much rain, that’s yet to be seen.
“There is potential for heavy rain in the Interior, but it is not guaranteed,” Weatherzone said.
“All models anticipate rain in the northern tropics, which is typical for this time of year.”
Of the three models, two predict temperatures in north-west Western Australia will soar past 40 degrees Celsius on Christmas.
There is too much uncertainty with the models days out from Christmas to say what each capital city will be experiencing.
However, Weatherzone said it is unlikely for any capital to swelter through temperatures exceeding 40 degrees on December 25.
Last year, Perth suffered through the hottest Christmas Day on record when the mercury soared to 42.8 degrees, which beat the capital city record set by Adelaide in 1888, Weatherzone said.
As for south-eastern Australia, two models suggest it’s going to be “relatively cool” on Christmas Day.
