What makes a draftable wide receiver in the NFL? There’s a good chance that if you ask a scout from all 32 teams across the league, you’ll get 32 different answers. Some will value certain combinations of height, weight, and speed; others will look to collegiate production, and others will turn to traits shown on tape. The New Orleans Saints have their own formula to determine their prototype and potential fits. While we can expect some of those benchmarks to shift after this offseason’s regime changes, there are some easily observable qualities that New Orleans values.
Looking over the draft classes since 2015, when Jeff Ireland joined the team as their college scouting director, we can build a rubric against which to evaluate this year’s incoming wide receiver class. We can also look at the team’s recent free agency pursuit of Marquez Valdes-Scantling to find a prospect that matches the mold almost identically.
Since 2015, the Saints have only drafted three wide receivers. That’s a small sample size to build a mold out of. However, if we expand the search back to 2007, we get similar measurables with 10 receivers. Based off the averages of those pass-catchers’ height, weight, speed, and production numbers, we can build our criteria.
- Height: 6-foot-1.5
- Weight: 207.5 pounds (trending heavier since 2015)
- 40 time: 4.47 seconds
- Dominator rating: 35%
- College target share: 25%
For reference, the dominator metric measures the a player’s share of their team’s receiving yardage and touchdowns. Target share, as you may imagine, measures that player’s share of passing targets. Both of these metrics are built off of collegiate play.
Among the receivers likely to be selected in this year’s draft, eight prospects across all rounds meet the size thresholds. We’ll break those out into tiers:
First Round Prospects
- Treylon Burks, Arkansas: 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds
- Drake London, USC: 6-foot-3 and 219 pounds
Top-100 Prospects
- Christian Watson, North Dakota State: 6-foot-4 and 208 pounds
- Alec Pierce, Cincinnati: 6-foot-3 and 211 pounds
Day 3 Prospects
- Erik Ezukanma, Texas TEch: 6-foot-1 and 209 pounds
- Tanner Conner, Idaho State: 6-foot-2 and 236 pounds
- Emeka Emezie, NC State: 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds
- Isaiah Weston, Northern Iowa: 6-foot-3 and 214 pounds
That list narrows a little when the 40 times are factored in. Emezie would be the first to go, running only a 4.65. The slowest the Saints have drafted since 2007 was 4.57 run by All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas. USC’s Drake London and Texas Tech’s Erik Ezukanma did not run at the combine. Arkansas’ Treylon Burks did come in slower than expected at 4.55, but that’s not entirely out of the range of “draftable” for New Orleans as evidenced by Thomas.
Next, the pool thins drastically when dominator and target share percentages are taken into account. At that point, the only remaining prospects are London and Burks. We could keep NDSU’s Christian Watson in the mix even though he doesn’t have an official target share rate on record. But based on Watson only having 105 career receptions, one can presume he did not meet the metric.
By the standards set by observing the drafted receivers since 2007, New Orleans has two clear and obvious fits: London (who is expected to run at his personal pro day on April 5) and Burks. Either would be a big time win for the Saints in the first round. However, scheme has to be taken into account.
Both Burks and London match the build and production of split end, X-receivers. Think Michael Thomas. Is that the type of receiver Jeff Ireland and Dennis Allen are prioritizing? If the team is looking for more of a Z/flanker type, they could break the mold. We’ve actually seen them do it as of late. The only receiver drafted in the Ireland era that met the target share average was Thomas. A bona fide No. 1 wideout. Tre’Quan Smith and Kawaan Baker both came in under that threshold and neither were drafted to be the team’s top option.
That could put Watson back in the conversation. He meets every piece of the criteria except for target share. Beyond that, he matches a mold the Saints have already shown us this offseason. Valdes-Scantling almost signed with the Saints before ultimately taking a deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. Looking at height, weight, and speed alone, there’s a great argument to made in favor of Watson being the ideal pick for New Orleans.
- Valdes-Scantling: 6-foot-4, 206 pounds, 4.37 speed
- Watson: 6-foot-4, 208 pounds, 4.36 speed
It also helps that Valdes-Scantling met neither the dominator nor target share metrics. Obviously signing a wideout you’ve already seen produce in the NFL is different than drafting a college prospect, especially one from a small school like Watson. Regardless of how deep this year’s wide receiver class is, there are some very specific fits that will only be available early in the draft for the Saints. If they want to go the draft-and-develop route, they’ll need to pounce quickly on one of the top prospects.
