Training camp opens in about a month and I’m worried that the Miami Dolphins basically have the same offensive personnel they had last season.
Why is that a worry?
The Dolphins still need offensive versatility, meaning a way to move the ball aside from the big play, and still need improvement on third downs. There’s no evidence they’ve found either.
Reflect back to last season.
The Dolphins offense wasn’t good against playoff teams, especially down the stretch. The Dolphins were 2-3 against playoff teams when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa started and finished the game (the Dolphins were 2-5 overall against playoff teams, and 2-6 if you include the wild-card round loss).
Beyond that, you know I make a big deal about the Dolphins being 24th in the league on third-down conversions last season. Nothing has changed in that regard.
So, in a departure from the usual chorus regarding the Dolphins offense, my worries don’t start with Tagovailoa staying healthy. Even when he was healthy, the Dolphins didn’t have success against the best teams on their schedule.
For this team to have success against playoff-caliber teams, and win a playoff game, it needs more than Tagovailoa’s good health.
Yes, the Dolphins had the sixth-best offense in the league at 364.5 yards per game, and the 11th-best scoring offense at 23.4 points per game.
But this offense is still about two things — Tyreek Hill, and the threat of Tyreek Hill.
If you’re a defensive coordinator, there’s nothing that scares you about this offense aside from Hill, the speedy (and likely future Hall of Fame) wide receiver.
Well, maybe Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead.
But not Tagovailoa (he’s not scary if Hill isn’t open). Not wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (he’s good, but not scary good). Not running backs Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson Jr., or tight end Durham Smythe.
All of those players, with the exception of Armstead, and possibly Smythe, feed off of Hill, or the threat of Hill.
Without Hill, this offense can’t beat you.
Heck, without Hill, or the threat of Hill, this offense might have trouble scoring.
That’s why the offense needs versatility.
As for the lack of third-down production, that’s partly because this is a finesse offense. There’s very little aggression, very little threat of smash-mouth football.
When this offense needs to get mean, needs to show its aggression, such as on third downs, or short yardage, or in goal-line situations, no defense gets concerned.
In those five aforementioned games against playoff teams, Tagovailoa was 94 for 159 for 1,329 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. He completed 59.1 percent of his passes and posted a 99.4 passer rating. Those are respectable numbers.
The Dolphins averaged 25.2 points per game in those five games. That’s a respectable number.
But delve one level inside the scoring and you’ll see offensive inconsistency.
The Dolphins showed their explosive potential in that 28-point fourth-quarter outburst at Baltimore that fueled their dramatic 42-38 victory in September.
The Dolphins followed that by scoring just 21 points in a victory against Buffalo the following week (totaling 227 yards).
In December, the Dolphins scored just 17 points apiece in back-to-back losses at San Francisco (23-17) and the Los Angeles Chargers (33-17). And in the Chargers game, Hill’s 57-yard fumble return accounted for one of their two touchdowns.
The Dolphins scored 29 points in a 32-29 shootout loss at Buffalo the following week, a game in which Tagovailoa was good but needed help.
So, to review, the offense produced at a high level for five quarters in its 20 quarters against playoff teams when Tagovailoa was healthy, and started and finished the game.
This isn’t a specific plea for a running back such as Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry, although either would be a great addition and a great help toward offensive versatility.
This is a plea for recognition of the offensive limitations, and then to have them addressed.
Rookie running back De’Von Achane is an outstanding third-round draft pick, but he adds more speed, an asset the offense already possessed.
This offense needs some toughness and versatility, meaning ways to move the ball consistently aside from Hill and the big play.
A year ago, Tagovailoa was playing the best football of his career, and the Dolphins were riding a five-game win streak before the offense hit a brick wall.
Both the 49ers and Chargers figured out that if they focus heavily on Hill and Waddle, thereby limiting big plays, the Dolphins offense can’t move the ball, especially on third downs. The 49ers and Chargers were right.
In the last four games Tagovailoa played (San Francisco, Los Angeles, Buffalo and Green Bay), the Dolphins scored nine touchdowns, and six came on plays of 45 yards or longer.
The big play was the big threat. But that was all the Dolphins had.
The Dolphins totaled 328 yards against the 49ers, but were 0 for 7 on third downs.
The Dolphins totaled 237 yards against the Chargers and were 3 for 11 on third downs.
Every team doesn’t have the defensive capability to throttle the Dolphins offense. But many playoff-caliber teams have it.
And the Dolphins finish this season against the New York Jets, Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo — all playoff-caliber teams.
