Confirmation that Chris Hipkins will travel to China this month is a sign the bilateral relationship remains strong despite growing differences. Yet Hipkins’ trip is not without risk in several areas, as Sam Sachdeva writes
Comment: In recent years, visits to China by a New Zealand prime minister have gone from an everyday occurrence to something much more precious - and precarious.
In his eight years leading the country, John Key made his way to China half a dozen times, yet in the best part of six years, a Labour prime minister has been there just once (albeit with the Covid-19 pandemic largely responsible for that scarcity).
Even that trip, by Jacinda Ardern in 2019, was preceded by uncertainty due to the decision to shut Huawei out of our 5G network, and heavily truncated as a result of the Christchurch terror attack.
So it was likely with relief as much as anything that Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed he was officially taking up the invitation extended to his predecessor by Xi Jinping late last year.
READ MORE: * The China Tightrope: War on our doorstep? * China after the end of 'zero Covid' * NZ's uneasy stability with China
Hipkins will head to Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin later this month alongside what is likely to be a hefty trade delegation of representatives from various sectors.
The exact itinerary – including whether or not the Prime Minister manages to secure an all-important sit-down with Xi – is still to be confirmed, but the mere fact of the trip will be welcome news to those who believe the Government has begun to tilt too far towards the United States in its foreign policy.
If anything, the news should bolster the argument that New Zealand can afford to be critical of China when necessary, and work more closely with other ‘like-minded’ states, without paying a diplomatic price or being forced into neutrality.
Indeed, the Australian government has managed to improve its ties under Anthony Albanese despite still moving ahead with plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines through the Aukus security pact.
For all that New Zealand’s approach to China has changed in the past six years, we are still friendlier towards Beijing than many other Western nations, a fact that helps open the door to opportunities.
That’s not to say there isn’t a growing list of sensitivities that Hipkins will need to carefully navigate during his time in the Asian nation, however.
“Smearing other countries, either directly or indirectly, won’t whitewash one’s own dismal record on coercion and hegemony." - Chinese embassy in New Zealand
Just last weekend, New Zealand joined its Five Eyes partners and Japan in signing a joint declaration against trade-related economic coercion that also condemned the use of “state-sponsored forced labour”.
China wasn’t named, but it didn’t take much imagination to see the statement as a criticism of the Chinese state’s actions to punish Lithuania and Australia economically following political disputes, as well as its treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang province.
Indeed, the Chinese embassy in New Zealand felt sufficiently targeted to issue a statement of its own criticising the “blatant accusations” being made by the nations.
“Smearing other countries, either directly or indirectly, won’t whitewash one’s own dismal record on coercion and hegemony,” the embassy said, in a possible taste of the message Hipkins could receive in Beijing.
There could also be awkward conversations about efforts to push back against foreign interference in New Zealand, given allegations about a senior public servant providing sensitive information to the Chinese government and the Government’s recent decision to fund an investigation into interference affecting ethnic communities.
Asked by Newsroom what message he would be taking to Beijing in relation to foreign interference, the Prime Minister said it would be the same as that offered in any international forum.
“New Zealand is a free and open democracy, and that is something that we really value. We want our citizens to be able to participate freely in the election process, to make their own judgments and their own decisions as they participate in our democratic process ... and that message applies to all other countries,” Hipkins said.
Minimals wins, high risks
The nature of such foreign visits is that diplomacy reigns supreme, with any such topics only glancingly referenced in favour of discussion about areas of agreement.
That is a reasonable approach, but it also comes with risks as seen in the opprobrium generated by National leader Simon Bridges’ glowing praise of the Chinese communist regime’s “amazing story” during a 2019 visit.
Hipkins has enough staff around him to head off a similar faux pas, but he will have to walk a fine line in offering praise for the relationship with China while still talking tough on human rights and other differences.
His trip to the Nato summit in Lithuania just weeks later could help to offset any negativity attached to photo opportunities with Xi, while the Prime Minister is likely to be pressed for any insights on the Chinese leader’s thinking by European leaders there.
With little in the way of tangible wins to take away from China – at least in the short term – and plenty of potential hurdles, the stakes are high.
* Sam Sachdeva is Newsroom's national affairs editor and author of The China Tightrope, a book about the changing NZ-China relationship published on May 30 by Allen & Unwin. The book can be bought at Whitcoulls, Paper Plus and Good Books, or from your local bookstore.
