There’s an underlying theme of this spring’s ongoing NBA playoffs that might provides an important case study in roster building — something the Sacramento Kings should pay close attention to after they landed the No. 4 pick in the upcoming draft.
A number of the most important stars in the league are leading playoff runs, or have done so recently, for the team that drafted them.
Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antentokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Ja Morant, Nicola Jokic and Joel Embiid have all become stars for the teams that brought them into the NBA. Which is notable given the recent run the “player empowerment era” had when LeBron James and Kevin Durant dictated who would win championships based on the teams they decided to join for most of the last decade.
Recent playoff history points to the direction the Kings need to go when they make their selection June 23: draft a star.
Yeah, no kidding, idiot with a byline.
The Kings got lucky by landing pick No. 4. They entered the lottery with the seventh-worst record in the NBA meaning they had a 32% chance at landing a top-four selection. They might need to get lucky again, either by getting an elite prospect to fall to them, or identifying someone who ends up being better than where they get drafted.
It’s hardly a novel thought to say the Kings need to draft someone who could change the direction of the franchise. But it’s clearly their best avenue toward sustained success and ending their staggering 16-year playoff drought, the longest in NBA history. They can only get themselves out of the mud with talent on the floor and they have a real opportunity to land a player that could be part of the solution next month.
If they pick the right guy.
We know history says that’s a long shot. After all, Sacramento has to watch Doncic — a world-beater and arguably the best player remaining in the playoffs — take on the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. Doncic dispatched the Suns (who had the best record in the NBA) with a historic beatdown in Sunday’s Game 7 of the conference semifinals. Perhaps Doncic would be doing it for Sacramento had the Kings not royally misread the 2018 draft (sorry).
But those are the stakes. It’s why the draft is so important.
We won’t know for certain if the era of player movement is over for good, but we can say the Kings are unlikely to lure a star in free agency or make one happy after a trade regardless. Which means the draft is their best avenue and perhaps their only one.
So which player should they take? That’s for general manager Monte McNair to decide. McNair in the last two drafts has proven he has an eye for talent. He drafted Tyrese Haliburton and Davion Mitchell at picks Nos. 12 and 9, respectively, in the last two drafts. It stands to reason McNair should be able to land a good player at No. 4 in a draft class that’s considered strong at the top.
The Kings should take the best player that doesn’t play point guard or center, the two positions occupied by De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. That means a shooting guard, small forward or power forward. In modern terms: a scoring guard, a wing or four that can stretch the floor.
The early word on this class is it would be a surprise if Paolo Banchero (forward, Duke), Chet Holmgren (big man, Gonzaga) or Jabari Smith (forward, Auburn) were not the first three players off the board, in some order. Which means Shaedon Sharpe (wing, Kentucky), Keegan Murray (forward, Iowa), Jaden Ivey (guard, Purdue) and Jeremy Sochan (wing, Baylor) are the likely options McNair is sorting through.
According to The Bee’s Kings reporter Jason Anderson, the Kings have mostly had prospects expected to go later visit their headquarters in downtown Sacramento. They’ll likely bring in the top prospects ahead of the draft.
There are a few interesting scenarios to think about regarding this pick. Might the Kings consider a trade to move into the top two or three, perhaps packaging No. 4 with a future first to get Banchero or Smith? Either would seem to make sense and be a strong fit next to Fox and Sabonis, particularly if the dropoff is real after the first three prospects.
Would the Kings take Holmgren if he fell out of the top three? It would seem Holmgren would overlap with his fellow Gonzaga alum, Sabonis, while the two have similar skill sets. It could create another awkward dynamic, similar to when the Kings had too many guards last season with Fox, Haliburton and Mitchell all needing minutes. But if Holmgren is the best player available, take him and figure out the fit later. This is about the next five years, not just 2022-23.
What about trading for a veteran?
We know things could change quickly in the NBA, but it doesn’t appear there’s a star worth targeting in the trade market. Portland guard Damian Lillard’s core muscle injury that kept him out the entire season is concerning, plus it’s not clear if he’s going to ask for a trade. Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook and James Harden should be avoided at all costs. Plus there’s little value in trading for someone who won’t want to be in Sacramento for the long haul, or at least beyond their current contract.
There’s also an underlying dynamic involving McNair and his contract. He’s entering the last year of his three-year deal he signed when he was hired in 2020. The Athletic’s Sam Amick reported Monday there have been no talks about an extension for McNair.
Which is odd given he presided over a coaching search that landed Warriors assistant Mike Brown, who reportedly signed a four-year deal. So the Kings are starring at another possible scenario where their coach and general manager are not lined up on the same timeline, at least not until McNair signs a new contract. None of this is a great sign for an organization that’s lacked stability for as long as its been missing the playoffs. If McNair goes after the season, the new GM will be saddled with a coach they didn’t hire.
How does that impact the pick at No. 4?
It could depend on McNair’s marching orders from owner Vivek Ranadive.
If Ranadive is hell bent on making the playoffs next season more than building something sustainable, McNair might be forced to take a player most ready to contribute — or package the pick for a veteran, rather than a player who would need time to develop, which is most young players. A stronger argument can be made that drafting the player with the most star potential, regardless of developmental timeline, would be the best thing for the franchise.
But we know that isn’t necessarily how Ranadive operates.
Otherwise, yes, smart guy in the media says hitting on a star in the draft is the best way for the Kings to turn things around. But if it were that easy ... never mind.
