Good Morning!
All eyes are on the labor market right now, and what a slowdown in hiring could mean for the economy, interest rate cuts, the stock market, and the world at large.
The jobs report released this morning showed that the economy added around 142,000 jobs in August—less than expected. The unemployment rate remains nearly the same, falling from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August.
But the Beige Book, a collection of economic snapshots published by the Federal Reserve earlier this week, offers a more on-the-ground view of what the jobs market looks like right now, and a collection of qualitative perspectives via interviews with business owners and other sources. The August Beige Book is mostly in line with the jobs report in terms of relatively flat employment levels. And it also offers an important insight that job seekers likely already know well: Hiring managers are getting choosier, as bosses continue to have the upper hand in the labor tug of war.
“Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook,” the report reads. Or as one staffing contact in Minnesota said in the Beige Book: “a lot of businesses are getting a lot more picky.”
For their part, job seekers are facing “increasing difficulties” and a tougher hiring environment, with longer job search times—something that young people in particular have been increasingly vocal about over the past few months.
The jobs report released on Friday found that average hourly earnings for nonfarm payroll employees actually increased slightly by 0.4%, to $35.21 per hour. And the Beige Book found much the same—for workers who do land a job, wages are rising “at a modest pace.” But they’re earning less than they might have hoped, and losing out on the wage bumps they might have enjoyed just a few years ago.
“Most business contacts reported low or no wage pressure for most jobs outside of specialty trades as labor availability continued to improve,” the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia reported.
In general, it seems that hiring managers and job seekers are in a kind of holding pattern in which companies are treading water: They’re avoiding layoffs for the most part, but they’re not exactly in growth mode.
For people with niche jobs in high-demand specialties, however, the job market is still rosy. Those workers are still seeing wage increases, and so are union members—something we saw earlier this week when 1,000 workers at an EV battery plant in Tennessee got a big pay raise. And in one notable aside from the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia in the Beige Book, at least one anonymous company may have finally solved a longstanding labor crisis.
“They were recently able to hire accountants for positions they had been unable to consistently fill for nearly four years,” researchers wrote.
Azure Gilman
azure.gilman@fortune.com
