China Watches Closely as US Presidential Campaign Heats Up
As the US presidential campaign gains momentum, China finds itself in a state of unease. The concerns stem from the potential impact the campaign could have on the delicate improvements in US-China relations observed in recent months. Both candidates, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, are expected to adopt a tough stance on China, which could further strain the already fragile relationship between the two nations.
While Biden has sought areas of cooperation with China in the past, Beijing remains cautious about his efforts to unite US allies in the Indo-Pacific region against China. Additionally, China is apprehensive about Biden's approach to Taiwan, as he has repeatedly expressed his willingness to defend the island in the event of a conflict with China. On the other hand, Trump's isolationist foreign policy approach may make him more hesitant to defend Taiwan. However, given his unpredictability and his consistent tough rhetoric on China, Beijing cannot rule out any potential actions he may take that could escalate tensions even further.
Zhao Minghao, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, expressed China's perspective, stating that regardless of the election outcome, both candidates are seen as adversity to China. He described them as 'two 'bowls of poison'.' This sentiment is echoed by several analysts who believe that while Beijing may find Biden's steadiness preferable to Trump's unpredictability, they are also concerned about Biden's ability to form partnerships to counter China's rise.
Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, stated that regardless of the election outcome, America's strategic competition with China will continue. China has had experience dealing with both Trump and Biden, having navigated their respective policies over the past four years.
Interestingly, in China's social media, many commentators seem to favor Trump, viewing him not only as a deal-making businessman but also as a disruptive force that weakens American democracy and global leadership to China's advantage. Trump's policies and remarks during his presidency have even earned him the nickname 'Trump, the (Chinese) nation builder.' However, concerns remain about Trump's willingness to defend Taiwan, as his recent accusation that Taiwan took the chip-making industry from the US has been interpreted as a possible signal of his reluctance to protect the self-governed island.
Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, warned against nationalistic sentiments in China that may contradict the views held by government officials and elites. She expressed concerns about the risks and uncertainties associated with Trump, including the possibility of military conflict. While there may be some short-term benefits for China if Trump undermines alliances and partnerships, the long-term damage to US-China relations may outweigh those benefits.
The US-China relationship has faced numerous challenges during Trump's presidency. It started off on rocky footing when he took a congratulatory call from the president of Taiwan in 2016, angering Beijing. Though relations temporarily improved with high-level meetings, tensions escalated in 2018 when the trade war began, leading to tariffs on both sides that remain in place today. The COVID-19 pandemic further strained relations, as Trump sought to blame China for the outbreak.
Before the 2020 election, US intelligence agencies reported that China viewed Trump as unpredictable and opposed his reelection, although subsequent assessments concluded that China did not interfere in the election. However, experts suggest that China is unlikely to interfere in the current election due to both unwillingness and the lack of capabilities. If any interference were to occur, it would likely focus on discrediting US democracy, amplifying partisan discord, and undermining faith in the election process.
Since taking office, President Biden has largely continued his predecessor's policies towards China. He maintained tariffs, limited access to advanced technologies for Chinese companies, sanctioned Chinese officials for human rights violations, and expanded restrictions on financial transactions with China. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has even labeled China as the 'most serious long-term challenge to the international order.'
Tensions between the US and China escalated again in early 2023 when a Chinese spy balloon was shot down by the US. Months of diplomatic efforts led to a meeting between President Biden and President Xi, resulting in some modest agreements and a commitment to stabilize relations. Experts suggest that both major US political parties now share a similar approach towards China, and China's ruling Communist Party has adapted its policy accordingly.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University of China, believes that China may prefer Biden due to his steadiness, which could potentially offer some stability in managing the already tumultuous US-China relations. Conversely, Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, emphasizes that China's primary concern lies with Trump's hostility towards globalization rather than Biden's efforts to build alliances worldwide.
Overall, China is closely watching the US presidential campaign, well aware of the significant implications it may have not only on US-China relations but also on peace in the Asia-Pacific region. While experts hold differing opinions on which candidate may be more favorable for China, one thing is certain - the relationship between the two global powers will continue to be complex and challenging, regardless of the election outcome.
