China’s economic growth was outpacing forecasts in the months up to the start of Donald Trump’s global trade war, new data released by Beijing on Wednesday showed.
Gross domestic product grew by 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, beating an expected increase of about 5.1 per cent.
Compared to the previous quarter, October to December 2024, the economy grew by 1.2 per cent between January and March 2025.
The data covered the period before Mr Trump hiked tariffs on China to 145 per cent earlier this month, suggesting that at least part of the growth came from businesses ramping up activity to evade crushing import levies in a phenomenon called “front loading”.
Analysts expect that trend to reverse sharply in the coming months as the hefty US levies took effect.
Mr Trump announced levies on almost all countries early this month but hit a pause on enforcement after the move spooked global stock and bond markets. He made an exception for China, however, increasing the cumulative tariff rate to 145 per cent after China retaliated with a 125 per cent levy on American goods.
The impact of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies was likely to show on economic activities starting April as companies moved to pause orders and cut back on production.
In addition to increasing tariffs on American goods in retaliation, Beijing last week suspended exports of critical rare earth minerals.
Speaking after releasing the data, the deputy commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics said the government strongly opposed America's "tariff barriers and trade bullying" as he acknowledged “pressure” on the country’s trade.
Sheng Laiyun said the tariffs violated international laws and principles of the World Trade Organisation, with serious implications for the global economic order.
"At the moment, the imposition of high tariffs by the US will put certain pressures on our country's foreign trade and economy.”
However, Mr Sheng said the growth data underscored China's resilience despite the crisis. He added that China was likely to adopt a more proactive approach to stimulating growth, noting that Beijing had a “robust” set of policy tools at its disposal to support the economy.
