Tesla has ended the day down 15% at $222.15, its lowest point since October.
That confirm the company has halved in value since its all-time high in December.
Wall Street close
A late update, just to catch the close of the New York stock market.
And there’s oceans of red across Wall Street tonight, where the Dow Jones industrial average has shed 890 points, or just over 2%, to close at 41,911 points tonight.
The S&P 500 index had a grim day too, ending 2.7% lower, or -155 points, at 5,614 points, as growth fears hammered US stocks.
The tech-focused Nasdaq slumped by 4%, its biggest daily drop since September 2022.
Donald Trump’s seemingly blasé attitude to the risks that his policies might push the US into recession are being blamed for today’s selloff, which also hit European stocks today.
Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky, says:
“The Trump administration seems a little more accepting of the idea that they’re OK with the market falling, and they’re potentially even OK with a recession in order to exact their broader goals.
“I think that’s a big wake-up call for Wall Street. There had been a sense that President Trump kind of measured his success on stock market performance. There was even somewhat of a “Trump put” so to speak. And I think we’re seeing that’s not the case, so the market is starting to reflect that reality.”
Updated
Historian (and ace TV presenter) Simon Schama draws a parallel between events today, and after the UK’s mini-budget of 2022:
Trump doing a Liztruss - the most colossal own goal - but unlike her cant be got out of office
— Simon Schama (@simon_schama) March 10, 2025
Updated
Closing post
With the London stock market closed, it’s time for a recap…..
Wall Street is still in the red, with investors concerned that Donald Trump doesn’t seem concerned about the economic damage – or market turmoil – his policies may cause.
Here’s the damage:
Dow Jones industrial average: down 516 points or -1.2% at 42,285 points
S&P 500: down 130 points or -2.2% at 5,639 points
Nasdaq composite: down 648 points or 3.5% at 17,547 points
Tesla’s shares continue to be hammered – they’re now down 11.8% at $231.65, more than 50% below the all-time peak scaled last December.
The Wall Street sell-off has pushed up stock market volatility, amid rising concerns that tariffs and trade wars may hurt the US economy.
Economists fear that the risks of a “Trumpcession” had increased as the president’s brinkmanship and stop-start approach to tariffs rattled global investors, exemplified by last week’s decision to pause US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico for the second time in as many months.
Kathleen Brooks of the trading platform XTB said Trump was putting his political goals ahead of the strength of the economy and the stock market. “[His] flip-flopping on tariffs, and his old-fashioned views of America first, is weighing on consumption and knocking confidence.”
It comes as Wall Street economists downgrade their growth forecasts for the US, warning that Trump’s trade wars are proving more damaging for the US economy than first anticipated.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said on Friday that the chances of a US recession had increased from 15% to 20%, as it revised its forecasts to incorporate higher tariffs and inflation, alongside a hit to gross domestic product and employment.
Here’s the full story:
European markets have also closed in the red.
Germany’s DAX has fallen by 1.75%, France’s CAC lost 0.9% and Italy’s FTSE MIB is down 0.95%.
Photos from Wall Street today
Here are some photos from the trading floor of the New York stock exchange today:
Tomasz Wieladek, an economist at US asset manager T Rowe Price, has also warned that the sell-off is getting “ugly”.
Wieladek says (via the FT):
“There is the realisation that Trump doesn’t care about the real economy in the short term. Markets are now beginning to take a trade war future seriously . . . and beginning to realise how painful this will be.”
Updated
FTSE 100 closes at one-month low
Last week was the worse for the London stock market this year, with the FTSE 100 falling by 1.4%.
This week has got off to a bad start too – the ‘Footsie’ has just closed at its lowest level in over a month.
The blue-chip share index has ended the day down 0.9%, or 79.6 points lower, at 8,600 points, the lowest close since early February.
Gambliing firm Entain (-8.6%) was the top faller, followed by jet engine maker and servicer Rolls-Royce, with mining companies and banks also lower amid economic slowdown fears.
AJ Bell: It's an ugly-looking selloff
“The US market sell-off is starting to look ugly,” says Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.
He writes:
“Many people have been worried about elevated valuations among US equities for some time and looking for the catalyst for a market correction. A combination of concerns about a trade war, geopolitical tensions and an uncertain economic outlook could be that catalyst.
“Four months ago, Donald Trump was seen as the market’s saviour, promising lower taxes and less stringent regulation. Now his actions represent the harbinger of doom. The R word is back on everyone’s lips as people ponder if trade tariffs will backfire and lead to recession rather than US economic prosperity.
“The Nasdaq peaked at 20,204.58 on 16 December 2024 and dropped to 17,502.51 in early trading on Monday.
“Leading the market lower were many of the stocks that produced stellar gains during the past few years including MicroStrategy, Tesla, Palantir and ASML.
“It was telling that the top risers on the Nasdaq were healthcare, utility and drink/snack companies. Investors were spooked by talk of recession so they hid in industries that should tick over regardless of the state of the economy.
“Tins of baked beans from Kraft Heinz, packs of crisps from Walkers’ owner PepsiCo, and energy drinks from Monster Beverage are everyday essentials for many, helping them get through the day without breaking the bank. It’s no wonder shares in all three companies were in demand during a chaotic day for the markets.
“During his first term as US president, Donald Trump often cited a rising stock market as being representative of his success. As such, he will not want to see a full-blown market crash months into his second term. Quite what rabbit he could pull out of the hat to put markets back on an upwards path is unknown, but Trump might feel compelled to come up with something.”
Oil also appears to be suffering from growth fears.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, is down 0.75% at $69.82 per barrel.
Updated
While US stocks are falling, government bond prices are rising.
That’s pushing down the yield, or interest rate, on Treasury bills. 10-year Treasury yields are down 10 basis points (0.1 percentage points) at 4.21% today.
Falling yields can be a sign that investors are gloomier about economic prospects, and prepared to pay a higher price for safe-haven assets, accepting a lower rate of return.
Updated
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, is confident that president Trump won’t push the US into recession with policies such as tariffs on major trading partners.
Schmieding told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” today:
“I don’t think we will talk about a U.S. recession. The U.S economy is resilient, I would say, largely despite Donald Trump.”
Updated
Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’, the VIX index, has risen to its highest level since mid-December, up around 12% today.
$VIX The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based gauge of expected volatility in the S&P 500 widely known by its trading symbol, VIX, jumped Monday morning to its highest level since December.
— Top Stock Alerts (@TopStockAlerts1) March 10, 2025
In recent action, it was trading at 26.70, after hitting its highest intraday level…
Nasdaq at six-month low
The Nasdaq composite has now sunk by over 3%, to its lowest level in six months.
The tech-focused index is down 611 points, or 3.36%, at 17,584 points.
Updated
Crypto is not immune to the sell-off either, with Bitcoin down 4% today at around $80,000.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be suffering from disappointment about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile created by Donald Trump.
Those entities will hold crypto which has been forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture; that has dampened hopes that the US government would become an active purchaser.
An index tracking US technology stocks has fallen 4.2% in early trading, to a near six-month low.
As well as Tesla (-8.5% today), other big fallers include software firm turned ‘bitcoin treasury’ MicroStrategy (-11%) and Palantir (-7.4%), while Amazon (-3.3%), Microsoft (-3.3%) and Salesforce (-3%) are also lower.
Recession fears are pushing Wall Street lower, reports Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com:
US equity futures started the week on a weaker note, continuing the recent trend of softness.
The Nasdaq 100 extended heavy losses from Asian and European trading sessions, shedding nearly 500 points (2.5%) at the US open. Investor sentiment remains fragile as uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies fuels concerns about a potential global trade war and its implications for economic growth.
Recession fears have exacerbated the selling pressure on US equities, contributing to the market’s current downturn.
Today’s selloff also means Tesla have lost all their post-elections gains.
At around $240, Tesla’s shares are the lowest since 4 November 2024, the day before the US presidential election.
Donald Trump’s win sparked a dramatic rally which had doubles Tesla’s value by mid-December – but now, that surge has been wiped out.
Tesla share price has halved since post-election rally
Shares in Elon Musk’s electric carmaker Tesla have slumped by over 8% in early trading, meaning they have more-than-halved in the last three months.
Tesla shares are down 8.8% at $239.57 each, as some analysts worry if Musk move into the political sphere – and his vocal support for hard-right parties – will hurt its brand.
Tesla’s stock hit an alltime high of $488/share on 18 December, amid the ‘Trump bump’ that propelled the US stock market higher.
But they have gone into a sharp reversal since, as Musk has attracted criticism for supporting’s Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland party, and attacked Sir Keir Starmer over his track record fighting UK child sex gangs.
$TSLA down 50% from its all time high. that escalated quickly!
— Steven Spencer (@sspencer_smb) March 10, 2025
Updated
David Morrison, senior market analyst at fintech and financial services provider Trade Nation, says there are several possible factors for this morning’s sell-off:
First up, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs. The President appears to be taking a scatter-gun approach in terms of targets, while teasing the markets with last minute reprieves, delays or softening in scope. All-in-all, it’s proving difficult to price all this in. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell alluded to this in a speech on Friday. But he repeated his view that the Fed should remain patient and be in no rush to cut rates further until they had more clarity over inflation and other economic indicators.
Aside from this, there are some concerns over the US economy. Recent data, particularly those numbers which attempt to measure confidence, have deteriorated.
There’s also been some mixed jobs data, although Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls were relatively benign. Nevertheless, inflation remains well above target, yet bond yields have fallen and forecasts for US growth have been downgraded sharply for the rest of the year.
Banks and technology companies are among the Wall Street fallers, such as Goldman Sachs (-3.75%) and Apple (-3.7%).
Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank suggests that comments last weekend, by US treasury secretary Scott Bessent and president Trump, could be a signal to the markets to expect changes.
Reid told clients this morning:
Although the weekend was relatively quiet we did hear from both Bessent and Trump and they seem to be telling us that they are prepared for some pain to reorientate the economy.
Bessent said, “Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure. And look, there’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending,” “The market and the economy have just become hooked. We’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period.”
Meanwhile Trump told Fox that “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” “What I have to do is build a strong country. You can’t really watch the stock market,” “If you look at China they have a hundred-year perspective”.
So taken at face value these quote suggest that their pain level is higher than most would have believed a few weeks ago.
Wall Street falls as tariff fears grip markets
Boom! The US stock market has opened sharply lower, as fears that a trade war could spark an American recession sweep Wall Street.
The Dow Jones industrial average, which tracks 30 major US companies, has dropped by 0.9% – shedding 383 points to trade around 42,418.
The broader S&P 500 index is down 1.4%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has slumped by 2%.
This follows last week’s selloff, in which the S&P 500 fell by over 3%, its worst run since early September.
Stocks are sliding today after China today imposed reciprical tariffs on US imports, targeting agricultural products, in response to the 10% tariff imposed by the US on Chinese imports.
Beijing’s tariffs will make American goods, such as soyabeans, pork, beef, chicken and cotton more expensive for Chinese consumers, and may lead importers to buy goods from elsewhere instead, hitting sales for US farmers.
Hopes that Donald Trump’s more erratic actions could be reined in by the markets appear to be being eroded, after the US president failed to rule out a recession in his weekend interview with Fox.
Instead, Trump spoke about how there would be “a period of transition”, implying the White House was relaxed about economic damage, expecting it to be short-term.
Rupert Thompson, chief economist at asset manager IBOSS, explains:
The hope had been that Trump’s bark on tariffs would be worse than his bite but recent actions suggest this is not the case. A 20% tariff hike has been imposed on China, along with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico although their scope has changed by the day. And more tariffs are on the way. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports are due to start this week and hefty tariffs on Europe, as well as ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on countries more generally, are set to be announced on 2 April.
The problem is that these plans, along with all the uncertainty caused by the constant changes, is slowing activity in the US as well as elsewhere. Government lay-offs resulting from the efficiency drive of Musk’s DOGE are also now becoming a drag.
Far from US growth picking up, as had been expected, the concern now is that growth could slow sharply. It had been thought that a decline in US stocks would reign in Trump’s more damaging policy inclinations but he seemed to accept last week that some economic pain might be needed to achieve longer term gain.
European stock markets have sunk deeper into the red, as traders brace for fresh falls on Wall Street today.
In London, the FTSE 100 is now down 80 points, or almost 1%, at 8,600 points.
Germany’s DAX has lost 1.25%, with stocks also hit by the news that the country’s Green party opposes plans to increase borrowing to fund higher defense and infrastructure spending.
Pound hits four-month high against the dollar
The British pound has nudged a four-month high against the US dollar today, as investors fret over a possible US economic slowdown.
Sterling traded as high as $1.2946, just above its highest levels last week, which is its strongest position against the dollar since early November.
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index says the ‘turbulence’ created by Donald Trupm has weighed on the dollar:
Last week was anything but dull for the markets, with the ebb and flow of trade tensions keeping investors on their toes. Risk assets took a sharp tumble as Trump slapped tariffs on Canada and Mexico, only to stage a midweek rebound before slipping once more—then bouncing back yet again on Friday after the US President dramatically widened the list of goods exempt from the very tariffs he had imposed just two days prior.
Adding to the turbulence, Trump later rattled markets with the prospect of fresh tariffs on Canada, triggering further intraday volatility on Friday. He also announced he was “strongly considering” sweeping sanctions and tariffs on Russia, contingent on a ceasefire in Ukraine. Yet, in characteristic fashion, he soon shifted tone, suggesting that dealing with Ukraine was proving “more difficult, frankly, than Russia” in efforts to broker peace, before declaring that US relations with Moscow were “doing very well.”
This is the sort of an environment we are at right now, so expect lots of headline-driven moves this week. But on the whole, the FX markets have favoured a weaker US dollar and I don’t see that changing in the near-term outlook.
Lloyd’s of London forecasts $2.3bn losses from LA wildfires
Insurance market Lloyd’s of London has estimated that the Californian wildfires that ravaged Los Angeles in January will cost it aroudn $2.3bn.
Lloyds has released the estimate alongside its a trading update for 2024, which show it made an underwriting profit of £5.3bn last year, down from £5.9bn in 2023, while pre-tax profits fell to £9.6bn from £10.7bn.
Burkhard Keese, Lloyd’s CFO, says:
“2024 saw us maintain our focus on strong profitability and disciplined growth. Our market has delivered another excellent underwriting year for our investors, while providing best in class solutions for our customers to protect their business flows and balance sheets.
“We would like to extend our deepest sympathies to those affected by the California fires earlier this year. Although we are still assessing the full impact, we do not expect this to be a capital event.”
The total cost of the wildfires will be much higher, though – there were estimates in January that the total insured losses could exceed $20bn, with the total losses forecast to exceed $135bn.
After a shaky start to the year, UK consumer confidence bounced back in February, reports polling company YouGov.
The YouGov/Centre for Economics and Business Research consumer confidence index, just released, increases by 1.4 points in February, up from 111.1 to 112.5.
That takes it back to levels set in December:
YouGov reports:
However, Britons were less optimistic about household finances for the year ahead (-1.4), and workers more worried about job security (-0.5) compared to January 2025
Business activity measures for past 30 days (+2.0) and next 12 months (+1.2) rise
Outlook for house prices rises (+5.2), as do retrospective measures (+1.6)
Sam Miley, managing economist and forecasting lead at Cebr, says:
“Despite the headline YouGov/Cebr Confidence Index improving, consumers also reported some areas of concern. Notably, households’ views of their financial situation over the coming year have returned to negative territory.
This is likely a driver of the weak consumption levels we are seeing across the economy, despite ongoing improvements in real wage growth. Instead, consumers are opting to save at a higher rate and act more cautiously.”
Updated
Wall Street futures signal more losses ahead today
Wall Street is on track to fall when trading begins, in under twothree and a half hour’s time.
Investors may be in a less cheerful mood, after Donald Trump failed to rule out his trade policies causing either a recession or higher inflation in the US.
The Dow Jones industrial average is on track for a 0.95% fall, acccording to the futures market, with the S&P 500 being called down 1.2%.
Wall Street patience with the White House may be running thin, after Trump told Fox News yesterday that there will be “a period of transition” as his policies kick in.
RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy research, Lori Calvasina, says:
“Strong postelection vibes were an important part of the bullish consensus on 2025 for U.S. equities which hasn’t panned out.”
Updated
After years battling deflation, policymakers in Japan are starting to worry that inflation may be a growing problem.
Private-sector members of a key Japanese government panel called for vigilance to the risks of rising inflation hurting the economy today, as the country’s long-term government bond yields surged to 16-year highs.
The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) said that policymakers should watch out for the risks of food inflation dampening private consumption and of a potential surge in interest rates hurting the outlook for investment, adding:
“Vigilance is required that such risks could potentially reverse the ongoing economic recovery.”
They should also be mindful of how increasing interest payments on government debt would affect public finances, they added.
AJ Bell: $1.57trn wiped off value of the Magnificent Seven so far this year
Concerns that Donald Trump may damage the US economy have hurt US mega-tech companies this year.
Since the start of 2025, $1.57trn has been wiped off the value of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks so far this year, reports brokerage AJ Bell.
Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet have all fallen in value, leaving Meta as the only company worth more than at the end of last December.
Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, says:
“Tech stocks rallied when Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election on hopes of less stringent regulation. The euphoria around his return to the White House has now fizzled away, with all the S&P 500’s gains wiped out. That’s dampened investor sentiment in general.
“The dollar, as benchmarked by the trade-weighted DXY index, is down 5.4% from January’s peak, to erase the gains forged after the presidential poll.
“Investors are beginning to realise that Trump’s policies might have negative consequences, even for people in the US where the prospect of recession is now being talked up. A trade war is unsettling and there are far-reaching consequences if it blows up.
“We’ve seen a rotation into other areas such as cheap(er) stocks in the UK and Europe, and more defensive areas in the US like healthcare are getting their moment in the sun. Even China is attracting more attention as investors keep their fingers crossed for more government stimulus measures to prop up the economy.
“Investors have been sitting uncomfortably when it comes to the US and that’s made them look closer at their portfolios to consider if changes are needed. It’s natural to look at the areas that have previously done well and consider if it is time to lock in gains.”
The US dollar is slipping today, down 0.15% against a basket of major currencies.
That takes it close to the four-month low touched during trading on Friday.
The “Trump Bump” risks becoming the “Trump Slump” across financial markets. Dollar index dropped to the lowest since US elections due to recession fear. pic.twitter.com/NRS1G04ixT
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) March 10, 2025
In happpier news, investor morale across the eurozone has brightened substantially this month.
The monthly index of eurozone investor confidence from the Sentix research institute has risen this month, to -2.9 in March from -12.7 in February
Economic expectations have hit their highest reading since July 2021, as investors are cheered by Germany’s plan to issue more debt to fund defence spending.
As Sentix puts it:
“For Germany, investors are downright euphoric.”
European stock market volatility index hits seven-month high
An index of fear in Europe’s financial markets has hits its highest level since last August.
The Euro Stoxx Volatility index, which uses options pricing to measure market expectations of future volatility, has risen by almost 5% this morning to 23.8 points, a seven-month high.
The index has almost doubled since mid-December, when it dipped below 14 points, as investors have grown more nervous about the economic outlook.
China’s decision to impose retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural imports today (see earlier post) has highlighted the risks of a global trade war.
Analysts at Principal Asset Management have warned that escalating trade tensions are injecting fresh volatility into markets, adding:
The U.S. trade deficit, which remains sizable with key partners like China, Mexico, and Europe, underscores the stakes in ongoing trade disputes. However, while tariffs could increase costs and disrupt supply chains, history suggests that markets adapt over time.
A well-diversified portfolio remains the best defense against short-term uncertainty. Investors should avoid overreacting to short-term swings and instead focus on economic resilience, corporate earnings strength, and broader market trends.
Last week the VIX index, which tracks fear levels on Wall Street, hit its highest level since last December, as the early market enthusiasm following Donald Trump’s election victory subsided.
Vishwanath Tirupattur, global head of quantitative research at Morgan Stanley, says the mood has changed rapidly, telling clients:
Market sentiment has shifted quickly from post-election euphoria and animal spirits to increasingly serious concern about downside risks, driven by ongoing policy uncertainty and a spate of uninspiring ‘soft’ data. The macro markets now expect the Fed to pivot from fretting about inflation to worrying about growth. Market pricing of rate cuts in 2025 has swung from about one cut a few weeks ago to three cuts today.
he pricing of the terminal rate has also moved notably lower, with its arrival much sooner. After reaching an all-time high just a few weeks ago, the S&P 500 has given up all its gains since the election and then some, in line with our US equity strategy team’s outlook for a tougher first half and a 5,500-6,100 trading range due to slower growth.
Updated
Analysts at investment bank Jefferies remain optimistic about the prospects for the US economy in the second half of 2025 – while also fearing that it may slow more than expected in the first half of the year.
In an updated US Economic Outlook, Jefferies tell clients:
Broadly, these changes are modest relative to what we were looking for at the beginning of the year. We started out 2025 expecting growth to slow in the first half due to exactly the sort of tensions and uncertainty about policy that we are currently seeing. It now appears that the slowdown will be a bit more pronounced than we expected, but we remain optimistic about the second half of the year and beyond.
We expect that the labor market will continue to cool gradually in the months ahead, with downside risks due to government spending uncertainty. We continue to expect that the Fed cut rates again in June, followed by 2 more 25 bp cuts, but we’re now expecting they will be back-to-back in July and September (rather than every-other-meeting).
Trade tensions push down European markets
European stock markets have dropped at the start of the new trading week.
All the major indices are in the red, as investors continue to worry about the impact of global trade wars and a possible US recession.
In London, the FTSE 100 index has shed 36 points, or 0.4%, to 8643 points, with mining companies and banks among the fallers.
Germany’s DAX has dropped by almost 1%, and France’s CAC 40 has lost 0.4%.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
‘’Unease about the effect of Trump’s tariffs hangs over financial markets at the start of the week. The prospect of a recession in the US is lurking, with consumer confidence falling, companies facing increasing trade complexity and investors turning more nervous. China’s deflation problem is also weighing on sentiment, and geopolitical concerns are staying in focus, with attacks on Ukraine intensifying.
The FTSE 100 is on the back foot in early trade, unable to shake off the nervousness surrounding the concerns about slowing global growth.
Airport strike hits German air travel
There’s travel disruption at German airports today, where a 24-hour strike has led to thousands of flight cancellations in a dispute about workers’ pay.
The strike, called by the Verdi union on Friday, impacts 13 airports across the country, including Munich, Berlin and Dusseldorf.
The operator of Frankfurt airport, Germany‘s busiest, said no passenger flights would depart from there on Monday, with delays and cancellations also possible on Tuesday.
Verdi is demanding an 8% wage increase, or at least an increase of 350 euros ($380) more per month, as well as higher bonuses and additional time off.
Employers have rejected the demands as unaffordable, with negotiations due to continue later this month, Reuters reports.
German exports have tumbled, a sign of the troubles gripping Europe’s largest economy.
Exports from Germany fell by 2.5% in January, new data shows, weaker than the 0.5% rise which economists expected.
This pulled Germany’s trade balance down to 16bn for January, down from 20.7bn in December.
Die reale (preisbereinigte) #Produktion im Produzierenden Gewerbe ist im Januar 2025 gegenüber Dezember 2024 voraussichtlich um 2,0 % gestiegen. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat Januar 2024 war die Produktion im Januar 2025 1,6 % niedriger. Mehr dazu: https://t.co/LWXKgbGnv0 pic.twitter.com/obstOXnZFF
— Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) March 10, 2025
In cheerier news for Berlin, though, industrial production rose by 2.0% month-on-month in January.
This may show that Germany’s industrial downturn is bottoming out, suggests Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, telling clients:
Today’s data confirms the bottoming out of Germany’s industrial slump. However, it is too early to call any substantial turnaround. Manufacturing capacity utilisation is at lows comparable only to those seen during the financial crisis and the initial lockdowns, order books shrank again in January with particularly weak foreign demand, and inventory levels remain at elevated levels. This still paints a rather unflattering picture of a nation known as an industrial powerhouse.
With looming US tariffs on the EU and the expected modern version of ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ policies by the new US administration, the short-term outlook for German industry remains anything but rosy. This is not just because of the potential impact on German exports, but more so the effect on German investments if companies were to move production to the US.
Shipping firm Clarksons warns of rising uncertainties
Clarksons, the world’s biggest shipping services provider, has warned this morning that trade tensions and geopolitical conflict is hitting its sector.
Andi Case, chief executive officer of Clarksons, told shareholders that both freight rates and asset values have fallen this year, hitting its financial results in 2025.
Case explains:
For some years now we have started each new financial period with an uncertain geo-political outlook; 2025 has started with more uncertainty than most due to political change, ongoing regional conflicts, increased trade tensions, tariffs and sanctions, inflation and changing monetary policy across global economies.
As I write this report, the impact of these uncertainties is that freight rates and asset values have broadly fallen, which has meant that the value of spot business done to date is less than the same period last year.
Shares in Clarksons have tumbled by over 17% in early trading.
The company also reported record underlying pre-tax profits for 2024, and a 4% rise in earnings per share.
China’s stock markets have dropped today, as the double-whammy of trade war fears and deflation weighed on investors.
The CSI 300 index dropped by 0.4%, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng index slid by 1.8%.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, calls it an “ugly early week selloff in China”, adding:
The week starts on a sharp negative note for the Chinese stocks, as the latest inflation update showed that consumer prices in China fell the most in more than a year….
Overall, the week is expected to bring more tariffs the Chinese tariffs on US agricultural and some Canadian products will start today, while the US steel and aluminium tariffs will be live from Wednesday.
The US-China trade war comes at a time when the Chinese economy is already struggling with weak inflation.
Consumer prices fell in February, pulling the CPI inflation rate down to -0.7% in February, the first negative reading since January 2024.
China’s deflationary pressures are “deepening”, says Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, adding:
Monday kicks off with the same old deflationary drumbeat as China’s consumer inflation took a deeper dive than expected, slipping below zero for the first time in over a year. The data only reinforces what’s been clear for months—deflationary pressures remain firmly entrenched in the world’s second-largest economy.
The property sector remains stuck in the mud, domestic demand is weak, and despite a bounce in tech stocks, the broader wealth effect just isn’t filtering through to consumers.
China also announced new tariffs against Canada last weekend, creating an early headache for its next prime minister, Mark Carney.
Beijing is bringing in tariffs on over $2.6bn worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, in a retaliation against levies on China-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminium products which Ottawa introduced last October.
The commerce ministry said in a statement.
“Canada’s measures seriously violate World Trade Organization rules, constitute a typical act of protectionism and are discriminatory measures that severely harm China’s legitimate rights and interests.”
China will apply a 100% tariff to just over $1bn of Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes and pea imports, and a 25% duty on $1.6bn worth of Canadian aquatic products and pork.
Updated
China's retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods kick in as trade war escalates
Another front in Donald Trump’s trade wars opened up this morning, as China’s retaliatory tariffs on US imports kicked in.
The tariffs, announced last week, target about $21bn of agricultural imports from the US, in response to the extra 10% tariff imposed on China’s exports to the US by Trump.
Beijing’s move covers a wide range of commodities. Imports of US-grown chicken, wheat, corn and cotton will face an extra 15% tariff, the Chinese ministry said last week. Tariffs on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruit, vegetables and dairy products will be increased by 10%.
The move will make US products more expensive, and thus less competitive, in the Chinese market, which is likely to lead to more imports from other countries instead.
That is bad news for US farmers, and increases the risks that the US economy slows… or even drops into the dreaded recession.
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Introduction: Trump does not rule out recession
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
“If it isn’t hurting, it isn’t working,” was the cry of then-UK-chancellor John Major in 1989, as the British government tightened policy to fight inflation and drove the country into a recession.
But it could also be the catchphrase of the new American president, who appears relaxed about concerns he could trigger a US downturn.
Donald Trump has refused to say whether his trade policies means the US economy is facing a recession or higher inflation, arguing that a “period of transition” is taking place.
Instead, he told Fox News show Sunday Morning Futures:
“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.
And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
The comments echo Trump’s line about how tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’, in his State of the Union speech last week.
Trump was speaking to Fox shortly after the latest US jobs report showed a pick-up in the unemployment rate in February, but also a rise in hiring – with payrolls up 151,000 in February.
That jobs data calmed some nerves about a looming “Trumpcession”, but economists remain concerned that slapping tariffs on major trading partners and slashing the Federal government will hurt growth.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, says:
US President Trump implied he’s willing to tolerate weaker growth as the economy “transitions”, something that may sour investor sentiment further – with private sector job creation far outstripping modest public sector job creation.
The data added to the notion the US economy is moderating and its performance is converging with the rest of the world. The rates market, responding to increasingly disappointing data and downside surprises in activity, indicate that the Fed ought to re-starting cutting interest rates in July, if not potentially June.
The agenda
7am GMT: German trade balance data for January
2.15pm GMT: House of Lords Home-based Working Committee hearing on development of working from home
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