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Newcastle Herald
Newcastle Herald
National

China's own goals: Australia emerges as serious middle power

In December 1979, I found a newsagent in New York's Times Square and anxiously began looking for news from Australia.

I had been away from home on sabbatical leave for three months, and I didn't see Australia mentioned in the media during this time.

The newsagent retrieved a copy of one of the Sydney papers from the backroom, but it was three months old.

In the US, in the pre-internet age, it was as if our country didn't exist.

Now, 43 years later, Australia has the world's 14th-largest economy, and we are regarded as a significant world middle power. In the intervening years, our products, mainly iron ore, coal, and gas, have become key ingredients for the world's largest economies, particularly China and Japan.

Soon this will include the US, UK, and the EU, as nations become increasingly dependent on rare earth mineral production. Australia is now poised to become a top-five supplier of these minerals, including lithium, cobalt, and tungsten, which are critical for the manufacture of mobile phones, TVs, computers, lasers, and electric cars.

Additionally, in international relations, Australia's counsel is now keenly sought.

Have you noticed how frequently Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attends international meetings of world leaders? This is a far cry from our lack of involvement in 1979 when our PM's main international meeting was the Commonwealth Heads of Government Conference (CHOGM).

We have been elevated from a minor player allied with the US to a significant power in our own right, all within the past five years. Now we are a member of the G20. In June 2021, Australia was a special guest of the G7, who were keen to hear our advice on dealing with a China, which had adopted increasingly aggressive trade and foreign policy towards our country.

In response, Australia has formed regional alliances such as the Quad (Australia, Japan, India, and the United States). It has played a critical role in creating AUKUS, a defence cooperation pact with our traditional allies, the UK and the US. Its remit includes the production of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia and our acquisition of other high-tech defence systems, such as long-range missiles.

The focus will now be on defending Australia from China, including the deterrent of being able to project force beyond our borders.

Recently, the Mississippi, a US Virginia class SSN-774 nuclear-powered submarine, made a goodwill visit to Perth. US Rear Admiral Richard Seif described it as: "the apex predator of the region because of its range, stealth, and firepower," particularly its torpedoes and deadly Tomahawk missiles.

He added that while Australia proceeds to develop its fleet, the US would consider basing some of its Asia-Pacific region submarines in Perth and significantly lift the planned number of Australian sailors aboard its boats for training.

Such an arrangement would enhance the deterrence we participate in with the US and might happen before 2030.

However, a better option would be for the US to sell or lease Australia, the last two Virginia-class submarines on their production run.

Beyond that lies the next-generation nuclear-powered submarine, the SSNX, which is shaping up as a joint AUKUS alliance project.

In addition to our defence plans, our nation has been at the forefront of countries resisting China's "wolf warrior' diplomacy for the past five years. China has responded by producing a list of 14 grievances against Australia. This included our foreign interference laws, a ban on telecommunication giant Huawei's involvement in our G5 rollout, Australia's call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID and speaking out on human rights abuses against their Uyghurs minority.

In retaliation, China slapped restrictions on their imports of our coal, wines, beef, barley, timber, and seafood. Although these measures severely affected the listed products, with Australia's balance of trade, there was little change because of the rising demand for our iron ore, coal, and natural gas.

With the change of government in May 2022, the Australian trade, defence, and foreign policy transition were seamless, as Australia has continued to stand up to China. As a result, by the time of the G20 meeting in Indonesia in November 2022, China realised its economic punishment of Australia had failed. It has now started on a path to reconciliation.

This is a typical pattern in Chinese diplomacy.

On the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Indonesia, the leaders of Australia and China met for the first time in five years.

The sharp change in the attitude of President Xi, from bully to friend, occurred because China realised that its aggressive Australian foreign and trade strategy had backfired and turned into a massive own goal.

Newcastle East's Dr John Tierney AM is a former Hunter-based Liberal federal senator

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