The EV bust, despite fears, didn’t happen this year. Throughout the year, automakers scaled back their EV plans, blaming lackluster customer demand. Even Tesla, the market leader in battery electric vehicles, cut production at its EV plant in Shanghai, while keeping quiet on plans to produce an affordable EV.
But as 2024 comes to a close, analysts say global EV sales didn’t fall as much as feared. Sales will likely fall short of forecasts by just 1%, according to Will Roberts, head of automotive research at Rho Motion, a research firm.
According to Rho Motion’s latest data, 15.2 million EVs were sold between January and November. Over half of those—9.7 million—came from China.
Even in China’s battered economy, the car market is growing. According to a recent report from Macquarie analysts Eugene Hsiao and Fergus Kwan, Chinese auto sales by volume are expected to grow by 5% this year, much better than the initial forecast of a 2% decline. Much of that sales growth is due to demand for new energy vehicles, a category that includes battery-powered vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
China in the driver's seat
Analysts anticipate that the EV market will grow across the world next year, mostly thanks to China, still the world’s largest and most competitive auto market.
China made up 64% of EV sales in 2024, and shows “no signs of losing ground on this metric in 2025,” Roberts says. China “will add nearly twice as many EV sales next year as the rest of the world combined.”
In their report for Macquarie, Hsiao and Kwan predicted that Beijing will maintain its “cash for clunkers” subsidy program, which encourages Chinese consumers to trade in their older cars for a new model, in some form.
Both warn against putting too much stock in first-quarter sales, which will likely be weak due to national holidays like Lunar New Year.
Roberts from Rho Motion holds a similar view for first-quarter sales in China.
“Time and again, it has been proved that Q1 is not an indication of the year ahead in China,” Roberts said.
Hsiao and Kwan from Macquarie also note that substantial updates to China’s subsidy program may only come after March, when the country hosts the “Two Sessions,” the country’s largest annual political gathering.
Plug-in hybrids surge
Car companies around the world turned towards hybrids this year, catering to consumers worried about making the switch to a battery powered vehicle due to concerns over range and a lack of charging infrastructure.
China was no exception in 2024, where plug-in hybrids drove sales. BYD sold just under 2.2 million plug-in hybrids in the first 11 months of the year, a 70% increase from the same period the year before.
Analysts predict that plug-in hybrid sales will continue to outperform battery electric vehicle sales next year.
Roberts expects plug-in hybrids and extended range electric to gain ground in the U.S., as they assuage consumer concerns over range.
Auto companies are already switching to offering plug-in hybrids compared to battery electric vehicles as a short-term way to address range anxiety and make up for a slowdown in sales, said Vincent Cheng, CEO of Delta Electronics Thailand, in an interview with Fortune in late-October. The company, Thailand’s most valuable firm by market value, manufactures powertrains for European and U.S. clients in the EV market.
The long-term view
Chinese EV brands will likely continue their overseas expansion next year. But manufacturers face new tariff threats in North America, Europe, and even some emerging markets like Brazil and Turkey.
That could shift Chinese automakers to relatively friendlier markets in the Middle East and elsewhere in Latin America. Chinese EV brands are already investing in manufacturing facilities in countries like Thailand, which have sizeable auto markets and governments with better relations with Beijing.
Macquarie expects Chinese car exports to grow by 29% in 2024, but predicts that the rate of growth will slow in 2025.
Yet EVs will make up a growing share of China’s auto exports going forward–potentially as much as 60% by 2030, up from 30% today.
While Cheng notes that EV sales growth was less robust this year, he explains that the sector has still maintained sales volume. Delta Electronics Thailand still projects growth in EV sales over the coming decade as governments try to cut carbon emissions.
“Cars, to reduce emissions and be more efficient, need to be electrified,” Cheng says.
