Closing post
After a red letter week for the European markets, and beyond, it’s time to wrap up.
A quick recap:
The US labor market continued to grow in February even as threats of mass layoffs in the federal government and uncertainty around Donald Trump’s tariff policies rattle the US economy.
In February, 151,000 jobs were added to the economy, up from an adjusted 125,000 jobs gained in January. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, little changed from 4% in January.
A total of 10,000 federal jobs were lost over the month but those losses were countered by hiring in healthcare, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.
European stock markets have slumped after Donald Trump’s second reversal on tariffs caused deep uncertainty among investors, while the euro was on track for its biggest weekly rise since the financial crisis.
Germany’s Dax index is down 1.9% in late trading, as weak factory data added to the signs of difficult economic conditions. France’s Cac 40 is down 1.3%.
In London, stocks have shrugged off their earlier losses, but that still leaves the FTSE 100 on track for its worst week this year.
China’s foreign minister has accused the US of “two-faced” behaviour, condemning the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and warning against the “law of the jungle” that could emerge from Donald Trump’s “America First” policy.
Wang Yi was speaking after the latest trade data showed a drop in Chinese imports, suggesting trade war fears were hitting demand.
UK house prices unexpectedly fell last month as concerns over the sluggish economy outweighed an anticipated rush of people trying to complete purchases before stamp duty increases in April.
Donald Trump’s flip-flopping over tariffs is causing chaos for farmers and food producers on both sides of the US-Canada border, Bloomberg reports.
Trump slapped 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods on Tuesday, only to then delay the new duties on many products on Thursday,
“This is the biggest challenge we’ve ever faced and I’ve been doing this for over 20 years,” said John Nickel, a Manitoba hog producer who sells exclusively to the US.
His first of two weekly shipments of piglets crossed the border tariff-free on Monday, but he doesn’t know whether a 25% markup will appear on the invoice for the animals he sent Thursday morning. More here.
Wall Street has reversed its earlier small fall:
U.S. STOCK INDEXES TURN POSITIVE; S&P 500 UP 0.3%, NASDAQ UP 0.5%, DOW UP 0.2%
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 7, 2025
Reuters: Recession risks rise for all three North American economies over US tariff chaos
Donald Trump’s threatened trade war against Mexico and Canada risks dragging both countries into recession, and the US with it, economists fear.
A Reuters poll of economists across North America found that the risks to the Mexican, Canadian and American economies are piling up, and that the chaotic implementation of U.S. tariffs that has created deep uncertainties for businesses and decision-makers.
Reuters polled 74 economists across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and 70 said that the risk of a recession in their respective economy had increased.
Donald Trump threatens Russia with additional sanctions and tariffs
Donald Trump has another target for tariffs – Russia.
On his Truth Social site, the US president has just threatened to impose new sanctions on Moscow unless a peace deal with Ukraine is agreed soon.
Trump, who has faced criticism for being much harder on Ukraine then Russia, writes:
Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely “pounding” Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.
To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!
Wall Street opens down, again
Today’s jobs report hasn’t changed the mood on Wall Street, it seems.
Stocks have opened in the red, adding to losses yesterday as trade war fears rattle investors’ nerves.
The Dow Jones industrial average has dipped by 138 points, or 0.33%, to 42,440 points.
The broader S&P 500 index is also slightly lower, down 0.12%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is flat.
We’ll probably have to only wait a month to see the impact of Elon Musk’s axing of federal government services in the jobs data.
Sara Pineros, economist at the CEBR thinktank, predicts March’s non-farm payroll (due on 4 April), will include a DOGE effect.
Pineros says:
Nonfarm payroll employment in the US increased by 151,000 in February, falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1%. These were the first full-month figures under the new Trump administration and come amidst large-scale cuts to federal government jobs by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
However, these cuts did not influence the February data much, as they mostly commenced after the mid-month snapshot. They will instead be evident in the March data published next month.
Beyond the impact of government job cuts, Cebr expects the ongoing uncertainty around US economic policy, specifically tariffs, to pose a downside risk to the labour market and the wider economy in the coming months.”
US jobs report: what the experts say
The US jobs market is “still in decent shape” argues Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics:
The modest 151,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February and 0.1%-point rise in the unemployment to 4.1% confirms the economy started the year soft but is not plummeting towards a recession.
Some of those fears may resurface in the March Employment Report, when recent federal government layoffs will be a much larger drag on employment than they were last month. But with private-sector hiring still running at a fairly healthy three-month average pace of 169,000, it suggests the labour market can handle it.
Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, says the jobs report could allay some fears over the health of the US economy:
The earnings number was solid as well, which is supportive for the consumer sector. Clearly we need to see more evidence on lay-offs in the public sector and to understand what impact they will have overall, but this number means we can breathe more easily as we go into the weekend.
Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, calls the report “disappointing”, though:
“Today’s jobs figures are below expectations, indicating that demand in the labour market is lower than anticipated.
This disappointing news comes at a time when the market is in need of a pick-me-up. Bearish sentiment has begun to grow as new tariffs have prompted concerns about the outlook for economic growth and a spike in initial jobless claims figures last week called into question the health of the labour market. Today’s numbers may be seen to reinforce anxieties on both fronts. With investors already concerned about a growth slow down, we will likely see greater sensitivity to economic data in the coming days and weeks.
As a result, this report could further weigh on the market after a forlorn February.”
This may sent alarm bells ringing: The number of Americans employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February.
These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
Heather Long, economic columnist at the Washington Post, says this can be an “early warning sign” of a weakening economy:
One worrying sign in February jobs report =
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) March 7, 2025
People working part-time for "economic reasons" (meaning they could not find a full-time job) jumped by +460,000 to 4.9 million.
This metric can be an early warning sign.
It's currently at the highest level since May 2021. pic.twitter.com/Ul2AE02TWp
Where were the 151,000 new jobs created?
Here’s a breakdown of some of the sectors of the US economy that added jobs in February.
Health care added 52,000 jobs in February
Employment in financial activities rose by 21,000, although commercial banking lost 5,000 jobs.
Transportation and warehousing employment rose by 18,000,.
Employment in social assistance rose by 11,000
Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers added 10,000 jobs.
But there were losses in other sectors too:
Within government, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.
Employment in retail trade fell by 6,0000
Employment in food and beverage retailers declined by 15,000, “largely due to strike activity”.
151,000 jobs gained in February. A solid number.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) March 7, 2025
January was revised down by 18k to 125,000.
-->Healthcare continues to be the big hiring driver. A large cut to Medicaid could really hurt that.
Health care +52,000
Financial +21,000
Local gov't +20,000
Construction +19,000…
US dollar hits election low after jobs report
The US dollar is continuing its recent swoon, after the US added slightly fewer jobs than expected in February.
Following today’s news that payrolls rose by 151,000, and the jobless rate rose, the dollar dropped further against other major currencies.
The euro is now up 0.7 of a cent today at $1.0853, adding to earlier gains and seemingly cementing this week as its best against the dollar in 16 years.
The dollar has also weakened against the Japanese yen, to 147.29 yen to the dollar.
This has pulled the US dollar index down by 0.37% today, to its lowest level since 5 November – the day of the presidential election…
Dollar drops post NFP, lowest since Election Day
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) March 7, 2025
Under 104 pic.twitter.com/SrZm1LW9Z5
It’s not unusual for non-farm payroll data to be revised.
And this month, we have upward revisions to December’s data, wiped out by a trimming of January’s jobs growth.
The report says:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000.
With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 2,000 lower than previously reported.
Average hourly earnings up 4% per year
Happily for US workers, wages continues to rise last month.
The jobs report says:
In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $35.93. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0 percent.
Another disappointing aspect of today’s US jobs report is that the labor force participation rate fell last month, from 62.6% to 62.4%.
That means fewer people were either in work or looking for a job (and had thus dropped out of the labor market altogether).
US unemployment rate at 4.1%
Today’s jobs report shows that the US unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, up from 4% in January.
That’s still pretty low in historic terms, taking the jobless rate back up to its level in December.
As the BLS point out, the US unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024.
Updated
At 151,000, job creation in February is weaker than the average monthly gain of 168,000 over the prior 12 months – the last year of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.
Today’s jobs report shows that federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.
That could that be an early impact of Elon Musk’s DOGE programme, which has led to layoffs at a number of US federal agencies in recent weeks
US jobs report released
NEWSFLASH: Hiring across the US economy picked up slightly at the start of Donald Trump’s second term in office.
The US economy added 151,000 new jobs in February, the latest non-farm payroll report shows, slightly below the 160,000 expected by economists.
But that’s a pick-up compared to January – payroll growth that month has been revised down to 125,000, from 143,000 first reporter.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports:
Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
Peter Berezin, chief global strategist and director of research at BCA Research, suggests the markets don’t actually expect the jobs report to come in close to the consensus (for a 160,000 rise in payrolls):
I don’t think the market is expecting anything close to the 160K consensus for NFP. Anything above 100K would be a “beat”.
— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) March 7, 2025
Ahead of the US jobs report in 10 minutes, Derren Nathan, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:
“It’s not just Elon Musk’s public sector efficiency drive that’s impacting (the job market). Cuts are also being felt in retail and technology.
“While weaker (jobs) data may support the case for further Fed rate cuts, job creation remains a key engine of economic growth.”
Investors brace for US jobs report
Tensions is building in the financial markets as investors await the latest US jobs report.
February’s non-farm payroll (NFP) – covering the first full month of Donald Trump’s second presidency – is expected to show a rise in employment. The data is due at 1.30pm UK time, or 8.30am on the east coast.
Wall Street economists predict the NFP rose by 160,000 in February, up from a 143,000 increase in January.
But, there are fears that Elon Musk’s push to reduce the size of the government and to cut government spending through his Doge initiative could be weakening the labour market.
Earlier this week, a survey of private sector payroll growth was much weaker than expected – with hiring slowing to just 77,000 new jobs last month.
The strength of the US jobs market is a crucial factor determining how quickly the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year.
We’ll also get an updated unemployment rate reading, and estimates of how much wages rose last month.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, says:
The consensus for today’s NFP print sits at +160K jobs, with unemployment steady at 4%, and wage growth holding at 4% YoY.
A negative surprise could send the dollar tumbling, especially after this week’s policy-driven repricing across markets.
Updated
World food prices rose in February
The rising cost of sugar, dairy and vegetable oil pushed up global food commodity prices in February, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported today.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks a basket of food commodities, rose by 1.6% in February. While the meat price index remained stable, all other price indices rose, with the most significant increases recorded for sugar, dairy and vegetable oils, the FAO says.
Sugar prices jumped by 6.6% in the month, due to concerns over tighter global supplies in the 2024/25 season.
The FAO explains:
Declining production prospects in India and concerns over the impact of recent dry weather on the upcoming crop in Brazil, which exacerbated the seasonal effect, underpinned the increase in prices. Additionally, the strengthening of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar, which tends to affect exports from Brazil, further contributed to the overall increase in global sugar prices.
The Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 2%, driven by higher prices for palm, rapeseed, soy and sunflower oils.
The report says:
After a brief decline in January, international palm oil prices rebounded moderately and maintained their premiums over competing oils. The increase was largely underpinned by seasonally lower outputs in Southeast Asian producing countries and expectations of increased demand from the biodiesel industry in Indonesia.
Dairy prices rose by 4%, driven by higher prices across all major dairy products.
According to the FAO:
International cheese prices increased for the third consecutive month, rising by 4.7 percent from January. The rise was fueled by strong import demand, as recovering production in Europe was offset by seasonal output declines in Oceania.
Trump says tariffs could go up over time -Fox Business interview
U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. tariffs could go up over time but gave no other details, according to an excerpt of a Fox Business interview taped on Thursday that aired on Friday, Reuters reports.
Asked whether businesses could get clarity about his tariff plan, Trump said:
“Well, I think so. But, you know, the terms could go up as time goes by, and they may go up and, you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability.”
(One can assuse Trump of many things, but predictability would not be at the top of the list)
The US dollar is “losing its crown”, reports Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB:
US stocks might be dragging other markets with it, but the decline in the dollar has allowed the euro to roar back to life. EUR/USD is higher by 3.3% this week and is the second best performing currency in the G10. $1.10 is looking like the next major level for this pair. The currency has been boosted by Germany’s planned fiscal bazooka to reboot its flagging economy.
Although the European bond market has stabilized at the end of the week, Eurozone sovereign yields have still surged 32 bps so far this week. The bond market does not seem to care about the details of Germany’s spending plans, the timeline or the fact it has been announced by Friedrich Merz, even though he has not yet managed to form a government. This could lead to a short-term recovery in bond yields, although the euro is continuing to rise, suggesting that the euro’s rise has untethered from Europe’s bond market.
Good news! The eurozone grew faster than previously thought at the end of last year.
Eurozone GDP rose by 0.2% in October-December, new data from statistics body Eurostat shows, up from a previous estimate of 0.1% growth.
The change follows a big upgrade to Ireland’s GDP in Q4 2024 – it grew by 3.6%, due to growth among its multinationals.
However, France (-0.1%) and Germany (-0.2%) are both on the brink of recession after contracting in October-December.
European stock markets are on track for a weekly loss.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has dropped by around 1% this week.
Today, Germany’s DAX has dropped by 1.5% after the early-morning drop in factory orders (see earlier post), but is still up over 2% this week, cheered by the ‘big bazooka’ fiscal loosening plan.
Updated
The euro has now nudged a new four-month high of $1.086 against the US dollar.
BofA Global Research has raised its forecast for the euro to reach $1.15 by the end of 2025.
In a note published today, BofA argue that German’s new fiscal package is “a watershed moment” for the currency, Reuters reports.
Euro on track for best week in 16 years
After a seismic week for the future of Europe, the euro is on track for its best week since the financial crisis 16 years ago.
The euro has climbed by 4.6% so far this week against the US dollar, from $1.0375 a week ago to $1.086 today.
That would be its biggest gain, in percentage terms, since the week to 20 March 2009, when the financial markets were being rattled by the recession following the global financial crisis.
In value terms, it’s on track to be the sixth best week in at least the last 20 years.
This week has seen the sixth biggest weekly upmove in EURUSD since the Euro’s inception in 1999!
— Philippe Loustaunau (@philoust) March 7, 2025
- The top four were all during the financial crisis – with the biggest upmove on record being the +692 points rise on the week ending 20th March 2009
- Outside the Financial crisis –…
This week, the euro has benefitted from the slide in the value of the US dollar as Donald Trumps’s threatened trade wars hurt the US currency.
But the euro has also gained against sterling, up to 83.95p, from 82.46p a week ago.
“The euro continues to benefit from the apparent change in the eurozone’s fiscal stance,” says Achilleas Georgolopoulos, senior market analyst at Trading Point.
There was a fiscal sea change in Germany this week, where major parties are pushing plans to reform the country’s debt brake, to allow for higher defense spending.
Last night, European leaders agreed to a massive increase to defence spending, to bolster Europe’s defence industry and increase its military capability.
Updated
All Eurostar Paris trains cancelled on Friday amid French rail disruption over suspected WW2 bomb – Europe live
There’s significant disruption to Eurostar services today, after an suspected unexploded bomb from the second world war was found on railway tracks in the commune of Saint Denis.
Eurostar has just confirmed to the Guardian that “all Eurostar trains are cancelled to and from Paris today.”
That includes all services on lines: London-Paris, Paris-London, Brussels-Paris and Paris-Brussels.
Our Europe live blog has all the action:
Oil on track for biggest monthly drop since October
This has also been a rough week for the oil price.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, has dropped by 4% so far this week to just over $70 per barrel.
That would be its biggest weekly drop since last October.
Oil has been hit by concerns that a trade war would hurt economic growth, dampening global demand for energy. The Opec+ group’s plan to raise production also weighs on crude prices.
Oil is struggling with “a mix of tariffs, US growth concerns, the potential lifting of US sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ opting to increase output,” reports Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
There is “a sense of chaos” in the markets today, reports Neil Wilson, analyst at TipRanks.com, after yesterday’s Wall Street wobble:
Trump paused tariffs and the market sold off. The old adage that the market hates uncertainty rings true. How the heck are you supposed to make investments or plan?
The Nasdaq ended the session down 2.6%, while the S&P 500 finished 1.78% lower. Both are headed for weekly losses of around the 4% mark.
The Mag 7 stocks are down 15% from recent highs. European stock markets were lower Friday after the DAX hit a record high on Germany’s bumper spending plans and the ECB cut rates. The dollar continues to feel pressure while China’s imports tumbled amid trade war concerns.
FTSE 100 on track for worst week of 2025
Unless we get a turnaround rally today, the FTSE 100 share index will post its biggest weekly loss of the year so far.
Since Monday morning, the “Footsie” has dropped by 1.8% - its biggest weekly drop since 16-20 December last year.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says:
“Well-worn though the phrase may be, markets hate uncertainty – and investors are getting it in spades.
The constant changes of tack emanating from the White House on tariffs are beginning to test investors’ patience, not least because the differing messages have different implications for highly interconnected global markets. In addition, the US has seen a recent run of weakening economic data, quite apart from any inflationary and recessionary fears that investors are harbouring following President Trump’s aggressive tariff actions so far.
Updated
Shares have opened lower in London, at the start of the final trading day of the week.
After losses on Wall Street last night, the UK’s FTSE 100 share index is down 27 points, or 0.3% at 8655.
European markets are also lower, with the Stoxx 600 index dropping 0.4%.
The US dollar is weakening again today, down 0.25% against a basket of currencies.
The pound is up 0.2 cents to $1.2904, towards the four-month high touched yesterday.
The euro has gained half a cent, to $1.0831, which is also the strongest since last November.
UK house price dip 0.1%
In the UK, house prices edged down last month, lender Halifax reports.
The average UK house price dipped by 0.1% in February, lowering the average property price down to £298,602, down from £298,815 in January.
Annual house price inflation remained unchanged at 2.9%, while in Scotland they rose by 3.8% – the fastest pace in 13 months.
Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, says:
“February’s figures highlight the delicate balance within the UK housing market. While there’s been talk of a last minute rush on new mortgages ahead of the changes to stamp duty, inevitably we’ve seen some of the demand that was brought forward start to fade as the April deadline ticks closer, given the time needed to complete a purchase.
That may help to explain why growth in first-time buyer property prices eased in February, falling to +2.4%, in contrast to homemover price inflation which accelerated, reaching +3.7%.
House price growth remains hesitant as UK prices took a -0.1% step back in February, making the average property price now £298,602 according to lender @HalifaxBank
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) March 7, 2025
Annual growth however remained steady at +2.9%, but Scotland saw house prices rise at the fastest pace in 13… pic.twitter.com/rmFfZSNOl9
German factory orders tumble
Factory orders in Germany have slumped, showing the challenge facing chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz.
German industrial orders fell by 7.0% month-on-month in January, the federal statistics office reported this morning. Excluding large orders, incoming orders were 2.7% lower than in the previous month.
On an annual basis, orders were 2.6% lower than a year ago.
Der reale #Auftragseingang im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe ist im Januar 2025 gegenüber Dezember 2024 nach vorläufigen Angaben um 7,0 % gefallen. Hauptursächlich dafür sind Rückgänge von Neuaufträgen im Maschinenbau (-10,7 %) und Sonstigen Fahrzeugbau (-17,6 %). https://t.co/KktDAYxGbl pic.twitter.com/JsWjZ4e1TY
— Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) March 7, 2025
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has accused Washington of “meeting good with evil”, as anger over Donald Trump’s tariffs continues to bubble up.
Wang told a press conference today, on the sidelines of the country’s annual parliamentary session, that China will continue to retaliate to the United States’ “arbitrary tariffs”.
Associated Press reports:
Wang said China’s efforts to help the U.S. contain its fentanyl crisis have been met with punitive tariffs, which are straining their ties.
“No country should fantasize that it can suppress China and maintain a good relationship with China at the same time,” Wang said. “Such two-faced acts are not good for the stability of bilateral relations or for building mutual trust.”
China's imports tumble as demand falls and trade war heats up
China imports have fallen sharply at the start of this year, as the prospect of a trade war with the US hits its economy.
Imports fell 8.4% year-on-year in January and February, new customs data shows, weaker than the 1% growth expected by economists.
That suggests that China’s manufacturing base could be cutting back on buying raw materials and parts, concerned that demand for their wares would fall due to new tariffs at the US border.
Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, says:
China’s economy got off to a weak start in 2025 as exports grew just 2.3% in the first two months of the year. A sharp slump in imports, meanwhile, resulted in a bigger-than-expected trade surplus.
Looking into the detail of the import data, Song explains:
We still saw strong imports in tech-related imports, with a 54.4% YoY ytd surge in automatic data processing equipment imports. And an overall 6.4% YoY ytd growth in hi-tech product imports. However, most other categories came in weak.
Commodities imports generally contracted over the first two months of the year, with crude oil (-10.5%), natural gas (-13.8%), and steel (-7.9%) all still soft. We’re already seeing a slump in soybean imports, which fell by -14.8% YoY ytd. This was even before the impacts of China’s retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products.
China’s exports rose, though, in the first two months of 2025 – up 2.3%.
#China exports: +2.3Y, imports: -8.4%Y, trade surplus (Jan + Febr): $170bn, chart @ING_Economics pic.twitter.com/Ly0QgAngAr
— ACEMAXX ANALYTICS (@acemaxx) March 7, 2025
Exports to the US rose to almost $76bn, Bloomberg reports, the highest total for January and February since 2022 when the Covid-19 pandemic was upending global trade.
US data yesterday showed that America’s trade deficit swelled to a record high in January, as firms tried to front-run tariffs by importing more goods.
Introduction: Trade war fears drive up volatility
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The markets continue to be buffeted by fears of a global trade war, as Donald Trump vacillates over the imposition of tariffs on major US trading partners.
Last night in New York, the S&P 500 index fell 1.8% to its lowest level since early November – the post-election Trump bump has well-and-truly vanished. Tech stock slid, pushing the Nasdaq index into a correction (more than 10% below its record high).
Wall Street’s fear index, the CBOE Volatility index, closed at its highest level since 18 December, showing investors are jittery.
They may also be flummoxed, after Trump temporarily delayed tariffs on many goods from Canada and Mexico yesterday.
Despite that u-turn, “the great unwind of US equity evolves and gathers momentum”, says Chris Weston, analyst at brokerage Pepperstone.
Weston explains:
Confusion reigns around the Trump Administration policy agenda, and while we’ve seen yet another pause on Canadian and Mexican tariffs until 2 April, the lack of consistency to hold policy firm further limits the visibility US businesses have to position margins and to make strategic planning decisions.
Trump detailed that he’s “not even looking at the stock market” … it’s easy to be sceptical on that call, but Trump needs to portray control when putting through the hard policies.
It’s never a great sign when politicians start blaming malignant forces when the financial markets give their policies the thumbs down. But that was Trump’s message yesterday; asked if his tariffs were scaring the markets, Trump replied:
“Well, a lot of them are globalist countries and companies that won’t be doing as well.
Because we’re taking back things that have been taken from us many years ago.”
European stock markets are expected to drop today, with the FTSE 100 index forecast to fall 0.55% or 48 points. Japan’s Nikkei has fallen over 2% today, to its lowest level since last September.
Investors are poised for the latest US jobs report. The consensus is that hiring picked up in February, lifting non-farm payrolls by around 160,000 last month.
But yesterday, Larry Kudlow – former Director of the US National Economic Council turned Fox News host – suggested the NFP report could be flat, or even negative….
Kudlow: "Some very smart people are telling me that the February jobs number coming out Friday could be flat, even negative. The GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed is showing for the first quarter a -2.5 or -2.8%. And we've had lousy numbers on things like housing and business… pic.twitter.com/zKFN5h6wJv
— Jeffrey Jonah (@JeffreyJonah5) March 6, 2025
The agenda
7am GMT: Halifax index of UK house prices in February
10am GMT: Eurozone GDP Q4 2024 (3rd estimate)
1.30pm GMT: US non-farm payroll for February
