Despite warnings a new wave of coronavirus driven by the latest XBB variants could peak at up to 65 million cases per week, China's health authorities say the situation remains stable and under control.
Respected respiratory disease specialist Zhong Nanshan told a conference in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou last week modelling indicated a new wave had begun in April and that up to 40 million people per week were already likely being infected during May.
The increase in cases was "expected", he said, and would likely peak in June with 65 million new cases per week.
Dr Zhong said health authorities had given preliminary approval for two new XBB-specific vaccines that would be released soon.
The current wave is the second since China suddenly abandoned the strict policy of COVID-zero — which had suppressed the virus for nearly three years using harsh lockdowns and frequent testing — in December.
The government also stopped releasing daily figures for new COVID-19 cases and deaths about the same time.
The dramatic change in approach resulted in a huge surge in cases, with an estimated 900 million new cases in just weeks and at least tens of thousands of deaths.
'Stable and controllable'
Wang Liping, a research fellow with the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Chinese Center for Disease Control (CDC), said the number of patients at fever clinics had increased since the end of April but the overall number was still "far" lower than at the peak of the previous wave.
He said most patients were experiencing mild symptoms.
"Therefore, based on our monitoring data from multiple channels, the epidemic caused by XBB variant strains will continue for a while in the future, but the situation of epidemic prevention and control across the country is stable and controllable," he said.
Chen Cao, another researcher at the CDC, said monitoring had found that the three most common subvariants circulating in China were the same as Omicron XBB variants found internationally.
"With the constant increase of imported mutant variants and the decline in our population's antibody levels, infections of XBB variants are likely to go up," Dr Chen said.
'No way to know' size of wave
George Liu, a professor in the School of Psychology and Public Health at Latrobe University who attended a conference in China earlier this month, said people there appeared "very relaxed" about coronavirus.
Professor Liu said he was not surprised by the emergence of another COVID-19 wave.
A large number of people were infected within weeks of the COVID-zero policy being scrapped, and six months later their immunity would likely be waning, leaving them at risk of another infection, he said.
However, Professor Liu said it was impossible to say if the modelling was being borne out in reality.
"This is a modelling estimation, and there's no way to know exactly how many people are infected or will be infected simply because there isn't a system to confirm that … with very few people, if any, in China still doing PCR testing," he said.
"But we need to take care of those vulnerable populations … especially those who are older and people who have existing health conditions. We need to look after them.
"So it's not it's not a good idea to simply let it [run its natural course], but I do know many people took a very relaxed approach to that."
He said he was not concerned about a new and more dangerous COVID-19 variant emerging during China's current wave.
"I don't think we have evidence to support that kind of argument right now," he said.
"During the first wave … in December last year, in January, February, and March, people were very worried of the new variants from China, but that didn't happen.
"From a scientific perspective, I don't see real evidence to show the variance can emerge."
'I don't see people are panicking'
Glen Gu, a Beijing resident who travels frequently for work, told the ABC his wife recently caught COVID-19 for the second time in six months but was unwell for just a day.
"My son and I were unaffected," he said.
"I guess currently the number of people infected with COVID is less than [the first wave] earlier this year.
"I don’t see people are panicking, but many still have their masks on, just in case."
Li Xiang, a 73-year-old retiree from Jiangsu Province's capital Nanjing, lives in a residential compound of about 400 households.
She said she had heard about the second wave on TV but there was no sign of an increase in cases in her area.
"As a precaution, I always eat well to pump up my immunity," she said.
ABC/Reuters
