Your support helps us to tell the story
A chilling disaster simulation predicted the devastation a Category 5 hurricane like Milton would unleash on Tampa over a decade ago.
Now, the effects of the worst-case-scenario hypothetical storm – dubbed Hurricane Phoenix – could become a reality for Floridians who are bracing for “life-threatening” Milton to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday night, with forecasters warning it could be the “worst storm in a century.”
Hurricane Milton’s projected path is currently right through Tampa, which – despite its location – has before now been lucky to avoid the worst of the hurricanes that slam into the Sunshine State each year. The last time the eye of a large storm passed through Tampa was more than 100 years ago.
But in a harrowing simulation produced in 2010 by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, Project Phoenix painted a bleak picture of what could happen if a Category 5 were to hit the area.
The prediction includes 30,000 people being missing after the storm, and 165 killed. In the model, more than 300,000 people are displaced, seeking shelter in the schools and churches that are still standing, while 42 out of 57 of the area’s hospitals are damaged.
The simulation also predicted that the Port of Tampa has the potential for “environmental catastrophe” following damage, and in total, the property damage would amount to $200bn.
The projection said Phoenix would arrive in October when more hurricanes make their way to the Gulf of Mexico and turn north – as Hurricane Helene did and as Milton is also forecast to do.
That was in 2010. The doomsday simulation provided an updated version in 2020 – Project Phoenix 2.0.
Realistic news footage depicted almost post-apocalyptic scenes where the Howard Franklin Bridge is destroyed and the Tampa General Hospital is submerged by 20-foot storm surges.
The devastating hypothetical images shows businesses, homes, and the airport completely flattened. Its world-famous beaches such as Treasure Island and Clearwater are “essentially gone,” the simulation warned, and the city of St. Petersburg becomes an island, cut off from the Pinellas County peninsula.
The damage from Phoenix in 2020 is estimated to be in the region of $300bn. Recovery would take a decade, according to the project, and power would not return to some areas for months.
“It’s both a warning about the chilling impacts of a catastrophic storm and a call to action for people to plan and prepare for a severe hurricane today — even if they’ve weathered many hurricane warnings in the past,” planning council executive director Sean Sullivan told theTampa Bay Times in 2020.
Project Phoenix 2.0 delivered a series of training exercises for small business owners and emergency managers so they could prepare for a real-life scenario.
“What if a Category 5 hurricane struck the Tampa Bay region? How would the events unfold, and what would the region look like in the aftermath of the storm?” the simulation asks.
Milton is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Florida on Wednesday night, with sustained winds of 165mph.
President Joe Biden has warned Florida residents that evacuation orders are a matter of “life and death”, while the National Hurricane Center warned that the “dangerous major hurricane” could be “one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
