SCOTLAND will be the only part of the UK to see child poverty rates fall over the next four years, a major new report has found.
Forecasting by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) suggests Scotland’s child poverty rate could fall to 21.8% by January 2029 from the current rate – believed to be 23.7%.
Wales will see an increase from 32.3% to 34.4%, while England’s rate will rise from 30.8% to 31.5%, and Northern Ireland’s from 25.5% to 26.2% over the same time period.
The JRF report, which is considered the leading annual barometer of UK poverty rates, said that by 2029 and without further policy changes:
- The gap between child poverty rates in Scotland compared to England and Wales will have grown, with Scotland moving from being seven percentage points to 10 percentage points below the rest of the UK.
- Almost one in three children would still be in poverty in England, but in Scotland there would be closer to one in five children in poverty “in large part due to Scotland-specific policies”. Child poverty in Scotland would be just 70% of the level in England.
- If the rest of the UK were to see the same reduction in the share of children in poverty achieved in Scotland, 800,000 fewer children would be in poverty.
The research uses central projections from the UK Government’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
First Minister John Swinney has made tackling child poverty the central pillar of his government, while Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party say economic growth must come first.
The JRF said that, under its modelling, “even if the UK economy grows significantly more than expected, overall child poverty rates show little change and could even rise if growth benefits higher income households more than lower income ones”.
The charity, which researches poverty and inequality, said that targeted policies are needed if child poverty rates are to come down.
JRF analysis further showed that “none of the nine English regions are likely to see a fall in child poverty between 2024 and 2029, with five regions modelled as having increases over the period and the remaining regions showing no change”.
The charity said its analysis "strongly suggests that welfare policies, such as the Scottish Child Payment and mitigating the two-child limit from 2026, which boost the incomes of the parents of who receive them, are behind Scotland bucking the trend of rising child poverty rates elsewhere in the UK".
The charity said that the UK Government should follow Scotland in plans to scrap the two-child cap on benefits – which limits what parents can claim for third or subsequent children. The SNP have said that the cap will be scrapped for Scottish families from 2026.
However, Chris Birt, the JRF associate director for Scotland, said that the Scottish Government must be held “fully accountable to make sure the progress made thus far is not the summit of our ambitions”.
“The First Minister has said eradicating child poverty is his government’s number one priority, but these figures show just how far we are from that day,” Birt said.
“If the child poverty reduction targets are met, compared to our central scenario over 100,000 fewer children would be living in poverty – a mountain to climb but a radically better Scotland than the one we see today.
“What people in Scotland deserve is for both their governments to work in their interest.
“The Scottish Government has set themselves lofty ambitions, but the UK Government has also promised change.
“We need to see concerted efforts from UK Government, including on social security, to deliver the better society free from poverty that our children deserve.”
Fiona Steel, the national director at Action for Children in Scotland, said that while the report “shows that Scotland will have lower child poverty rates than the rest of the UK, this figure is still unacceptably too high”.
“However, we now need a giant leap, especially if Scotland is to meet its own legal child poverty targets.
“We know Scottish families should benefit from all three layers of government – Westminster, Holyrood, and local authorities – working together to provide a ‘triple lock’ to ensure children do not enter poverty, or are able to exit poverty and stay out of poverty.
“However, many families feel that rather than three levels of government working in unison, each is pulling in its own direction. We need grown up politics and partnership working from across all Governments to help Scotland’s children.”
Responding to the data, Labour Scotland Office minister Kirsty McNeill said: “The UK Government is delivering our plan for change to put more money in people’s pockets.
“The best route out of poverty is secure, well-paid work, which is why we are delivering the biggest upgrade to workers’ rights in a generation, with an increase to the minimum wage and starting the process to ban exploitative zero-hour contracts.
“Our reforms to Universal Credit mean families will be better off by around £420 a year on average and our Child Poverty Task Force, set to report in the spring, will seek lasting reductions to child poverty.
“This government ended austerity, with the largest settlement for the Scottish budget in history – an extra £4.9 billion.”
