The NFL playoffs are set, and the Kansas City Chiefs will get a much-needed week’s worth of rest.
The Chiefs did their job in Week 18 by defeating the Las Vegas Raiders, earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. The wild-card round will take place January 14-16, and the Chiefs will play the lowest remaining seed in the AFC on January 21 or 22.
Here’s a look at who the Chiefs could play based on the outcome of the three AFC wild-card round matchups:
| (7) MIA at (2) BUF | (6) BAL at (3) CIN | (5) LAC at (4) JAX | Chiefs play… | Probability* |
| Dolphins | Ravens | Chargers | Dolphins | 1.89% |
| Dolphins | Ravens | Jaguars | Dolphins | 1.49% |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Chargers | Dolphins | 5.39% |
| Dolphins | Bengals | Jaguars | Dolphins | 4.23% |
| Bills | Ravens | Chargers | Ravens | 12.67% |
| Bills | Ravens | Jaguars | Ravens | 9.95% |
| Bills | Bengals | Chargers | Chargers | 36.05% |
| Bills | Bengals | Jaguars | Jaguars | 28.33% |
Since the Chiefs will play the lowest remaining seed, it’s not possible for them to face the Cincinnati Bengals or Buffalo Bills in the divisional round — those two could only play the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
But before we look too far ahead, let’s preview the upcoming matchups.
*Implied probabilities based on Tipico NFL odds.
(7) Miami Dolphins at (2) Buffalo Bills
When: Noon CT on Sunday, Jan. 15 (CBS)
Tipico odds: Bills -11
Implied probability: Bills 87%
If the Dolphins manage to win this game, they’ll take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional round. The biggest storyline in that matchup would surely be receiver Tyreek Hill’s return to Kansas City after the Chiefs traded him to Miami during the offseason.
Getting past the Bills will be a tall task for the Dolphins, but they did manage to split 1-1 with Buffalo this season. The big factor will be whether Miami will have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who missed Weeks 17-18 due to a concussion. A healthy Tagovailoa would give the Dolphins a fighting chance, but rolling with a backup QB would make this an almost impossible feat for Miami.
If the Bills win, they’ll take on the highest remaining seed in the divisional round. Keep in mind that if the Bills and Chiefs face in the AFC Championship game, the game will be played at a yet-to-be-determined neutral location.
(6) Baltimore Ravens at (3) Cincinnati Bengals
When: 7:15 p.m. CT on Sunday, Jan. 15 (NBC)
Tipico odds: Bengals -6.5
Implied probability: Bengals 74%
The Bengals just defeated the Ravens in Week 18 and now they’ll need to run that back one more time in the playoffs. The Bengals notably defeated the Chiefs earlier this season and in the AFC Championship game last year, so a potential Chiefs-Bengals AFC Championship matchup would be must-see TV.
The Ravens — who will hope to return QB Lamar Jackson for this game — could play the Chiefs if they beat the Bengals and the Bills defeat the Dolphins. The Chiefs and Ravens haven’t played since last season when Baltimore beat K.C. by one point.
(5) Los Angeles Chargers at (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
When: 7:15 p.m. CT on Saturday, Jan. 14 (NBC)
Tipico odds: Chargers -2
Implied probability: Chargers 56%
The Chiefs are 3-0 against these teams this season, with two wins against the Chargers (both by three points). However, beating a division rival three times in one season seems difficult, so the Jaguars may be the preferable opponent for K.C. The Chiefs beat the Jags 27-17 in Week 10.
Regardless, Chiefs fans will want to keep an eye on this game because it’s likely that the Chiefs will meet the winner in the divisional round — playoff wins by the Bills and Bengals would guarantee that the Chiefs would play either the Chargers or Jaguars.
NFC playoff games
(7) Seattle Seahawks at (2) San Francisco 49ers
3:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Jan. 14 (FOX)
The Chiefs are 2-0 against these squads in 2022. They beat the Seahawks 24-10 in Week 16 and the 49ers 44-23 in Week 7. It’s probably looking way too much ahead by saying this, but the 49ers would be one of the more interesting opponents for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl considering that’s who K.C. beat in Super Bowl LIV.
(6) New York Giants at (3) Minnesota Vikings
3:30 p.m. CT on Sunday, Jan. 15 (FOX)
It’s been a while since the Chiefs met these teams. K.C. beat the Giants in 2021 on Monday Night Football while the Vikings haven’t played the Chiefs since 2019. Chiefs fans may remember that game fondly — it was the Matt Moore-led Chiefs who beat the Vikings as Patrick Mahomes missed the game with a knee injury.
(5) Dallas Cowboys at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7:15 p.m. CT on Monday, Jan. 16 (ESPN)
The last time the Chiefs faced the Cowboys was in 2021 — the Chiefs won that one in an oddly low-scoring game. The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 41-31 in Week 4 of this season in what was sort of a Super Bowl LV revenge game. Hypothetically, a Bucs-Chiefs Super Bowl rematch would also carry a ton of intriguing storylines.
