It’s the last meeting at Prestbury Park this Saturday before the Festival in March, so we’ve more pointers and clues to take in as punters start to firm-up their main fancies. To help along the way, Andy Newton has got the Cheltenham trends for ALL this weekend’s Festival Trial races – with the action getting going at 12:40pm.
Cheltenham Trends and Stats: Put History On Your Side At Festival Trials Day 2025
Seven races on Festival Trials day and hopefully by using the Cheltenham trends below this will help rule out some and point you in the direction of others.
We get going at 12:40pm with the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase. Where all eyes will be on the JP McManus-trained Jagwar.
The Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle is the first ITV race now – a contest a certain Sir Gino won and is now the big fancy for the 2025 Arkle Novices’ Chase with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.
Just Two Winning Cotswold Chase Favourites In The Last 21 – Can L’Homme Presse Defy That?
The action moves on through the afternoon with the Cotswold Chase at 2:25pm, which is deemed a Gold Cup Trial – but the last horse to win this and the ‘big one’ at the Festival was Looks Like Trouble in 2000. King George VI Chase third L’Homme Presse heads the market.
However, the Cheltenham trends highlight that we’ve only seen two winning market leaders in the last 21 renewals.
No Lossiemouth unfortunately to take on Constitution Hill in the Unibet Hurdle at 3:00pm – that clash might have to wait till the Champion Hurdle (fingers crossed) on March 11th.
If (sorry, when) Constitution Hill wins on Saturday – he’ll be looking to become the first Unibet Hurdle winner since Rooster Booster to follow-up that same season in the Champion Hurdle.
Then at 3:35pm the Staying Hurdlers strut their stuff in the Cleeve Hurdle – a race former Grand National winner Noble Yeats won last year.
The key Cheltenham trends here tell us eight of the last 19 favourites have won here.
Five of the Saturday Cheltenham races will also be shown LIVE on ITV Racing.
Plus, you can also listen to SportsCasting’s Andy Newton on this week’s Final Furlong podcast with TalkSport host Emmet Kennedy and Peter Michael.
Let’s get going.
Cheltenham Trends – Key Stats For ALL The Festival Trials Day Races (Sat 25th Jan 2025)
Read on as we showcase the main stats and Cheltenham trends for each Festival Trials Day race this weekend. Hopefully there will be a few more pointers towards March.
12:40 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RTV
- 20/20 – Aged 8 or younger
- 19/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (4 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase, 2023 Stage Star, Turners’ Novices Chase)
- 18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
- 18/20 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
- 17/20 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
- 17/20 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
- 16/20 – Rated 128+
- 15/20 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
- 14/20 – Irish bred
- 13/20 – From top 3 in the betting
- 12/20 – Carried 11-2 or more
- 10/20 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
- 9/20 – Won last time out
- 7/20 – Ran at Kempton last time out
- 5/20 – French bred
- 4/20 – Won with 11-12 in weight
- 4/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 3/20 – Winning favourites (2 in the last 14 runnings, but last 2)
- 9 of the last 11 winners aged 7 or 8
2024 Winner: GINNY’S DESTINY (Paul Nicholls) 4/1 fav
1.15 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RTV
- 18/20 – 1st or 2nd in last race
- 17/20 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
- 16/20 – Placed favourites
- 15/20 – Top 3 in the market
- 13/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
- 13/20 – Won last time out
- 12/20 – 2/1 or shorter
- 12/20 – Won at least once over hurdles in the UK
- 11/20 – French bred (8 of last 9 winners)
- 10/20 – Winning Favourites (1 joint)
- 8/20 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil 2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
- 5/20 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
- 4/20 – Trained by Alan King
- 4/20 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
- 4/20 – Won by an Irish bred horse
- 3/20 – Won by a German bred horse
- 4 of the last 7 been owned by JP McManus
2024 Winner: SIR GINO (N Henderson) 5/4
1.50 – Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV
- 18/20 – 9/1 or shorter
- 18/20 – Rated 130 or higher
- 17/20 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
- 17/20 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
- 16/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
- 15/20 – Top 4 last time out
- 15/20 – Raced over fences at Cheltenham before (8 won)
- 14/20 – Aged 8 or older
- 14/20 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
- 12/20 – 1st or 2nd last time out
- 12/20 – From the top 3 in the betting
- 12/20 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
- 9/20 – Carried 10-7 or less
- 7/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 7/20 – Won last race
- 5/20 – Raced at Newbury last time out
- 4/20 – Favourites (just 1 joint-fav in the last 10 runnings)
- 3/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
- 2/20 – Won by the Hobbs yard
- 2/20 – Paul Nicholls yard (2 of the last 6)
- 2/20 – Venetia Williams yard (2 of the last 11)
- 2/20 – Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (2 of the last 7)
- 3 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
- Last 9 winners aged 8 or younger
- Jockey Gavin Sheehan has ridden 2 of the last 10 winners
- Il Ridoto won this in 2023
2024 Winner: GA LAW (Jamie Snowden) 8/1
WATCH: All The Finishes From Cheltenham Festival Trials Day 2024
2.25 – Betfair Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV
- 21/21 – Rated 151 or higher
- 20/21 – Raced at Cheltenham over fences before (10 had won)
- 19/21 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
- 19/21 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
- 17/21 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
- 16/21 – Priced 7/1 or less
- 14/21 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
- 13/21 – Raced at Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time
- 13/21 – Favourites placed
- 11/21 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
- 10/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 10/21 – Unplaced last time out
- 8/21 – Won last time out
- 7/21 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
- 7/21 – Won by a French-bred horse
- 3/21 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
- 2/21 – Won by the Henderson yard (2 of the last 5)
- 2/21 – Favourites
- 1/21 – Irish-trained winners (2024)
- 1/21 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
- 1/21 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
- 10 of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
- The average winning SP in the last 21 runnings is 7/1
- Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
- Nicky Henderson has won the race 3 times (1980, 2020, 2022)
- No back-to-back winners of the race
2024 Winner: CAPODANNO (Wille Mullins) 7/2
3.00 Unibet Hurdle (Reg as the International Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m1f ITV
- 20/20 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
- 18/20 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
- 17/20 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously
- 17/20 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
- 17/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
- 16/20 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
- 14/20 – Favourites placed
- 14/20 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
- 13/20 – Favourites (1 joint)
- 13/20 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
- 12/20 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
- 12/20 – Won last time out
- 11/20 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
- 9/20 – Rated 162 or higher
- 8/20 – Winning distance: 4+ lengths
- 6/20 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
- 6/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
- 5/20 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 6)
- 5/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (4 of the last 10)
- 4/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
- Rooster Booster 2002 was the last horse to win and follow-up in the Champion Hurdle (same season)
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
2024 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH (Wille Mullins) 4/7 fav
3.35 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV
- 18/19 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
- 17/19 – Aged 9 or younger
- 16/19 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
- 16/19 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles
- 15/19 – Ran at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
- 14/19 – Rated 154 or higher
- 13/19 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
- 12/19 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
- 12/19 – Placed favourites
- 12/19 – Top 3 in the market
- 9/19 – Won last time out
- 8/19 – Favourites
- 7/19 – Won by a French-bred horse
- 3/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
- 6 winners in total won the Stayers’ Hurdle (same season)
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown
2024 Winner: NOBLE YEATS (Emmet Mullins) 3/1
4.10 – AIS Novices’ Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV
- 18/18 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
- 17/18 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
- 15/18 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
- 15/18 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
- 15/18 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
- 14/18 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
- 14/18 – Won last time out
- 13/18 – Placed favourites
- 12/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
- 11/18 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
- 9/18 – Ran at Cheltenham previously
- 6/18 – Favourites
- 5/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 5/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
- 3/18 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
