Talking to people in and around the college football coaching industry, this year seems like it will be a quiet one in the coaching cycle. But observers said things would slow down during the COVID-19 year in 2020, and it didn’t. And it didn’t in 2021, either, when two of the most seismic changes in the history of the sport happened (Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly leaving Oklahoma and Notre Dame, respectively). Not all the coaches below are on a boiling hotseat, and many are borderline enough to win their way back on the right side of job security … but the only truism is the coaching industry is churn, so despite how little preseason chatter there might be in 2023, in the words of one industry source: “every year I’m blown away by how much activity there is.”
ACC
Jeff Hafley (Boston College)
Eagles brass is patient, but if BC underwhelms and misses a bowl game this year, questions may be asked. Could a decent 5-7 with the right wins do the trick? Losing defensive coordinator Tem Lukabu to the NFL was a blow, as was losing talented receiver Zay Flowers and QB Phil Zurkovec to the NFL Draft and the transfer portal, respectively. Steve Shimko takes over as the third offensive coordinator in the last three seasons.
Dino Babers (Syracuse)
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Entering his eighth year at the school, Babers has two winning seasons at the helm, and he may need another (or at least a bowl berth) to ensure another year in charge. A buyout that was reportedly $10 million last year will certainly drop this year. The question is whether an athletic department in some flux is willing to replace a vaunted men’s basketball coach and its football coach in the same calendar year. Syracuse is working with new coordinators, but there’s reason to believe continuity still exists. The offensive coordinator in promoted QB coach Jason Beck and defensive coordinator Rocky Long, is someone Babers attempted to hire a few years ago and will continue the same defensive system the Orange have been running.
American
Mike Bloomgren (Rice)
A new AD is always cause for caution for an underwhelming coach, and Rice recently hired Tommy McClelland from Vanderbilt. Rice is a deeply difficult place to win, and Bloomgren finally cracked bowl eligibility last year in his fifth season (albeit with five wins and an APR waiver).
Ryan Silverfield (Memphis)
After Justin Fuente and Mike Norvel, expectations at Memphis are high. A third middling season in a row and a buyout around $2 million at the end of the 2023 season may not be a good combination of circumstances.
Big Ten
Tom Allen (Indiana)
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The positive vibes of the 2020 season are looking more like a bug and not a feature of Allen’s tenure. But the sky high buyout—reportedly $20 million—is designed to prevent the IU administration from making a rash decision.
David Braun (interim) (Northwestern)
Even before the hazing scandal threw everything into flux, Northwestern probably wasn’t going to be very good this season. But with the scandal casting the long term futures of both the school’s president and athletic director into doubt, there’s no telling what the future holds for Braun. If he can rally the troops, perhaps there’s a way forward for him to get the permanent job (he was already a newcomer to the program when he was hired in January). But permitting team staffers and players to wear shirts in support of Pat Fitzgerald stating “Cats against the world” was already publicly rebuked by AD Derrick Gragg and isn’t a good start to his interim tenure before a game is even played.
Big 12
Dana Holgerson (Houston)
Houston’s now punching above their weight class as one of the new Big 12 entrants, but they’re an ever-present coaching carousel wild card because of expectations. This is the school whose chancellor, Renu Khator infamously said “we’ll fire coaches at 8-4” and she meant it, firing Major Applewhite after a 7-5 and 8-5 season, the latter of which was nearly good enough for a conference championship game berth.
Brett Venables (Oklahoma) and Steve Sarkisian (Texas)
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In a coaching carousel not expected to have standout names, industry sources searching for one of the mega jobs to open have noted that if either of the Red River rivals seriously underwhelm, a quick change could be on the horizon with a nod to the wish to enter the SEC on the front foot next season. Both have Vegas win totals at around 9.5, so it would likely take a catastrophic failure for the cataclysmic to occur.
Neal Brown (West Virginia)
Brown was thought to have his job saved by a combination of an athletic director change and sky-high buyout at the end of last season (around $17 million at the time). That buyout has dropped, but only by about $4 million, and new AD Wren Baker will also likely have to do a men’s basketball search in the spring as well. Brown will resume play-calling after taking a year off.
MAC
Mike Neu (Ball State) and Chuck Martin (Miami (OH))
Middling in the MAC is a tough place to be, but among the schools there are two coaches who have been in their posts for eight and nine seasons respectively. If a spark is necessary after a subpar season, it may need to come at one of these spots.
Mountain West
Danny Gonzales (New Mexico)
The Lobos are a team that need a bowl in the worst way this season. So far, they have won just seven games in Gonzales’ three seasons in charge.
Pac-12
Justin Wilcox (Cal)
Everything about Cal’s athletic department is in flux right now including (chiefly) where exactly they’re going to play all their sports in 11 months, but after a flirtation with alma mater Oregon despite three straight subpar seasons, Wilcox’s tenure could get dicey if the Bears underperform again.
SEC
Eli Drinkwitz (Missouri)
Drinkwitz did get an extension at the end of last season that offered the school some additional protection if he was hired away, but the Tigers have been almost squarely .500 during his tenure at 17-19 overall.
Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)
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The Aggies should be much improved this year, and Fisher’s buyout remains tremendously expensive, but as with their future and former conference mates Texas and Oklahoma, if A&M surprisingly bottoms out, would trigger fingers start itching?
Sun Belt
Butch Jones (Arkansas State)
Expectations for the Red Wolves are high and the school has been the southeastern cradle of coaches. Jones has been overseeing a complete and total rebuild with a roster teardown and five wins across two seasons. If the foundations don’t start to show proof of improvement, things could get iffy.
Shawn Clarke (Appalachian State)
Few places have expectations like App, but there are plenty of reasons to think that last year’s 6-6 record was a fluke. Clarke has proven that he can win in Boone, and a spate of one score losses can easily swing the other way this season.
Shawn Elliott (Georgia State)
The Panthers backslid from being a reliable seven/eight-win team during Clark’s tenure. But the Sun Belt is deeply competitive, and has only gotten stronger after recent additions.
Retirement watch
College coaching is increasingly no longer a young man’s game with the changes to NIL and the transfer portal. As the sport continues to adapt, sources point to multiple spots that are, annually, on retirement watch for more than just their age. Opposing coaches do as well when they negatively recruit.
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