The Chargers stare down yet another must-win game on Sunday against a Titans team currently leading their division. With a victory, Los Angeles’ playoff chances jump from 55% to 76%.
Buy Chargers TicketsHere are six keys to a Week 15 win.
Air it out
The Titans allow the highest neutral pass rate in the league, a stat in which the Chargers’ offense also leads the NFL in. Tennessee also has a stout run defense, even with Denico Autry (knee) out on Sunday, as Jeffery Simmons has quickly become one of the best run defenders in the league. LA has struggled to run the ball all season, especially between the tackles, meaning Sunday’s game plan should probably avoid trying more than necessary. We’ve seen what this offense can do with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both healthy last week, and asking Justin Herbert to shoulder most of the load on offense isn’t much different than the last few weeks.
Play action
Tennessee has the fifth-worst defense against play action by EPA/dropback, which plays well into the hands of the Chargers. This defensive struggle is twofold: the Titans often sell out to stop the run, making them one of the better ground defenses in the league. They also have an exploitable secondary, especially with Kristian Fulton (groin) out on Sunday. LA benefited hugely from running more play-action last week against Miami – getting Herbert on the move with half rolls and bootlegs helped mask some of the struggles along the offensive line and opened up more avenues for Herbert to make plays. On Sunday, continuing that pattern should pay dividends for LA.
Convert in the red zone
The Chargers scored touchdowns on only two of their six red zone opportunities last week, bringing their season conversion rate to 49.7%, 27th in the NFL. We’ve dissected and diagnosed why this is the case many times here at Chargers Wire, but here’s the short version. LA can’t run the ball in short-yardage situations because they don’t trust Joshua Kelley for some reason. They also refuse to throw the ball into the actual end zone. Against the Titans, assuming all else is equal, I’d expect Tennessee to convert in the red zone more often than the Chargers, considering that they’re the ones with Derrick Henry. As such, it’s imperative that LA scores touchdowns, not field goals, once they get inside the 20.
Limit the run
Limiting Derrick Henry is easier said than done, I understand. But in four of Tennessee’s six losses, Henry has rushed for 82 yards or less, including 30 yards against the Eagles (24th in run defense DVOA) and 82 against the Giants (31st). The Chargers currently sit at 25th in run defense DVOA, but the run defense looked much improved last week against the Dolphins, who, to be fair, is a bad rushing offense. Breiden Fehoko’s enlarged snap count has resulted in many more rushes being stuffed at the line, while Morgan Fox, Kyle Van Noy, and others have stepped up in various roles. Sebastian Joseph-Day (knee) is also questionable on Sunday after missing the Dolphins game and would give the defensive line a boost. LA is 4-1 when they can hold an opposing offense under 150 yards, and while doing that against Henry is a tough task, there’s a blueprint to success from earlier in the season.
Make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable
Tannehill (ankle) has never been a great avoider of pressure in the pocket, but his lingering ankle injury certainly hasn’t helped matters. This season, 22.8% of Tannehill’s pressures result in sacks, 5th worst in the NFL among QBs with at least 116 dropbacks under pressure. (For reference, Justin Herbert is 3rd best at 12.9%.) Brandon Staley has gotten more aggressive as the season has gone on, using Drue Tranquill and Kenneth Murray more often as blitzers to generate extra pressure. Tennessee’s two starting tackles, Nicholas Petit-Frere and Dennis Daley, are also both in the bottom 12 in pass block efficiency, at 95.6 and 92.8, respectively. This is a vulnerable offensive line protecting an immobile quarterback, and the Chargers would do well to get after him to put Tennessee in long-yardage situations.
Blanket the tight ends
Tennessee’s wide receivers are one of the most minor threatening groups in the league, especially so with Treylon Burks (concussion) out on Sunday. Of the healthy receivers on the Titans, their leading receiver in yards per route run is Robert Woods at 1.19, tied for 80th among receivers with at least 27 targets this season. Move to tight end, however, and Tennessee has the league leader in yards per route run: rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo at 2.58, more than three-tenths higher than Travis Kelce in second place. To slow Tennessee’s passing offense, the Chargers will have to find an answer for Okonkwo without using their Derwin James-shaped trump card, as the safety is doubtful with a quad injury.
