The Chargers continue their gauntlet of must-win games on their quest to earn an AFC playoff bid with a rivalry game against the Raiders on Sunday.
While Las Vegas has struggled in the wins department and dropped the Week 1 matchup between these teams, victory is never guaranteed in the AFC West.
Here’s what Los Angeles must do to come away victorious.
Load up defensively
It’s no secret that the Chargers are a moribund run defense, allowing 6 100 yard rushers in 11 games so far this season. Part of that is injuries, certainly. But part of it is also by schematic design: Brandon Staley wants to live in the nickel, which results in 2-4-5 fronts with light boxes, essentially daring opposing offenses to run the ball. Well, you don’t have to dare the Raiders, who have run Josh Jacobs 57 times in their last two games. Without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, Davante Adams is the only threat in the passing game. Asante Samuel Jr., Michael Davis, and Derwin James have all played well this season and should be trusted to handle that. I’d like to see Staley adjust and bring in someone like Breiden Fehoko to play the majority of snaps as a third-down lineman with Sebastian Joseph-Day and Morgan Fox.
Keep Austin Ekeler fresh (and involved)
Joshua Kelley is back from injured reserve. Isaiah Spiller has shown flashes in his limited run this season, enough so that Sony Michel was a healthy inactive last week against Arizona. The narrative around this room in training camp was that the Chargers (and Ekeler himself) didn’t want Ekeler taking a massive amount of snaps the way he did last season, and now is the time to put that plan forth. Despite the per carry numbers, Ekeler looked at his burstiest against San Francisco when Spiller took more of his rushing work. LA has largely moved away from running the ball, which will probably continue, so getting Kelley and Spiller more involved in the passing game is the next step in this evolution. Getting your best players the ball is always a good plan, but 15 targets to Ekeler, as was the case last week, is perhaps an overcorrection.
Spread the ball around
The Chargers were successful in the Week 1 matchup with Vegas when they let Justin Herbert find an open man, regardless of name recognition. No Chargers player had more than four targets on Herbert’s 34 attempts, and nine players caught a pass. The Raiders have since proven they’re one of the worst pass defenses in the league, the worst by DVOA, and that’s even before Anthony Averett hit injured reserve this week. eight of the nine players who recorded a reception in Week 1 are healthy and available in this one, with Mike Williams still sidelined by an ankle injury. That’s been a rare thing for the Chargers this season, and hopefully, it means Joe Lombardi is willing to open up the passing game and let Herbert do what he does best.
Pressure Derek Carr
We all know the story when it comes to Carr: make him feel uncomfortable and reap the rewards. LA recorded six sacks and nine hits on Carr in Week 1, forcing two fumbles and three interceptions as a result. When pressured this season, Carr’s completion percentage craters to 52.2% from 67.7% when he has a clean pocket. Blitzing Carr drops his completion percentage from 65.1% to 56.5%, 23rd out of 27 QBs with at least 75 dropbacks against the blitz. Brandon Staley has been more aggressive with the blitz since the bye, sending an extra defender a third of the time over the past four games. That’s tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league.
Stay aggressive
While we’re on the topic of aggressiveness, Staley has finally found a bit more moxie as a fourth down and late-game decision-maker this season. Going for two to win the Cardinals game in regulation was the right decision because LA did not deserve to win that game after trailing for most of regulation and likely would not have come away with an overtime victory. The Chargers were 4 for 4 on fourth down against the Chiefs in a game where Staley punted on a 4th and 6 with 4 minutes left to salt the game away essentially. It’s been a relearning curve, especially because LA has struggled in short-yardage situations. But more often than not, rivalry games are about breaking the other team’s spirit. Las Vegas looked listless until Carr questioned his teammates’ drive and led them to two straight overtime victories. The Chargers will need to hit the gas and keep their foot pressed all game if they’re going to break the Raiders.
Finish strong, for once
I mentioned the two overtime wins for Las Vegas, and that’s a key point because of how badly the Chargers have struggled in the second halves of games this season. Even in Week 1 against this Raiders team, LA jumped out to a 17-3 halftime lead only to squeak by with a 24-19 victory that featured three punts and a missed field goal on their last four non-kneel drives. It’s been the story all season: the Chargers go into the half with the lead, come out looking somewhere between mediocre and awful in the third quarter, then spend the final frame scrambling to keep up (if they’ve already blown the lead) or tripping over themselves (if they’re still ahead). In the six games where the Chargers have held a lead going into halftime, they’ve gone 3-3, including both losses to the Chiefs and the Sunday Night collapse against San Francisco. The Raiders have shown they won’t go quietly, so LA needs to bring their A game for all four quarters to come away with a win.
