Riding a two game winning streak, the Chargers host the 6-2 Lions at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
Here are four reasons to be worried about Los Angeles falling back under .500.
Four down contest
Brandon Staley has often been talked about as one of the league’s most aggressive coaches after the 2021 Chargers set a record with 22 fourth down conversions.
But those Chargers needed six conversions in Week 18 against the Raiders to clear the previous mark, because Dan Campbell’s Lions squad had 21 conversions that season. Campbell entered his tenure in Detroit with the opposite impression from the general public: his comments about biting kneecaps and penchant for hard-hitting players in the trenches seemed to suggest he’d be an old-school conservative ball coach. But that couldn’t be farther from the truth. The Lions and Chargers have combined for 170 fourth down attempts over the last two and a half seasons.
Campbell and Staley have also added the most win probability of any coaches with their decision making per SumerSports. Detroit has continued this aggressive approach, while Los Angeles has become a bit more conservative than their 2021 outfit. The Chargers also give up the most fourth down conversions in the league at 1.4 per game, allowing opponents to convert fourth down over 60% of the time.
Returning talent
In their last three games, Detroit has scored a touchdown in only 12% of their red zone possessions. On the season, that number is 48%, the 24th best mark in the league. On the surface, the Lions are a team that scores field goals, not touchdowns.
Look a little deeper, however, and you realize that Detroit’s issues in the red zone have been affected heavily by injuries. Center Frank Ragnow missed the Lions’ last game against the Raiders, while guard Jonah Jackson and running back David Montgomery have missed all of the last three. With Detroit on bye last week, the Lions got all three back at practice and will have them available against the Chargers on Sunday.
When healthy, Montgomery has been one of the best red zone backs in the league this season. His 68 yards and 5 touchdowns inside the 20 are both in the top ten in the NFL despite having only played in 5 games this season. Rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs had a breakout performance against the Raiders with Montgomery absent, meanwhile, which could open a lane for the Lions to utilize their 1-2 punch in the backfield the way they envisioned entering the season.
Over the middle
Jared Goff has been one of the best quarterbacks from the pocket in the NFL this season. A lot of the credit can be attributed to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, but Goff has undeniably hit a second stride in his pro career.
One of Goff’s best traits is his ability to throw over the middle: 61.5% of his passing yards have come on passes between the hashes. The bulk of those yards come on shallow or intermediate routes, which the Chargers have struggled to slow down because of their off-coverage shells. Detroit rarely throws to the sidelines, largely because their two best receivers are at their best over the middle. Receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the league’s premier talents out of the slot and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has proven to be a legitimate threat up the seam.
Los Angeles has not shown that they have a solution for defending passes over the middle yet this season. Their allowed explosive play rate on short passes between the hashes is 18.75%, the worst in the league, as they allow more than 6.5 yards after the catch on those plays. Those numbers improve slightly when the pass gets deeper, as LA’s explosive play rate allowed on intermediate passes over the middle is 27th in the league despite allowing 7.8 yards after the catch.
Long and short
The Chargers enter this game following a Monday Night victory over the Jets, putting them on a short turnaround before their contest with the Lions. Los Angeles also elected to stay an extra day in New York, flying back home on Tuesday instead of after the game on Monday.
Detroit, on the other hand, enters this game coming off their bye week after a romp over the Raiders that caused the firing of Las Vegas’ head coach, general manager, and offensive coordinator. The Lions also return three key players on offense, as previously mentioned. In short: Detroit has had two weeks to get healthy and prepare for this contest, while LA has had five days.
The Chargers, to their credit, do not have a single player on the injury report entering Sunday’s contest. That’s a rarity for Los Angeles, but Brandon Staley told the media that their strategy of flying back a day late from New York was aimed to lessen the load on their veteran players. But LA does not have a clear talent advantage on Sunday for the first time in three games. The short week could compound that issue and cause additional problems at SoFi Stadium.
