After a Week 1 loss to the Lions, the Chiefs have gotten back to their winning ways and now enter Week 7 at 5-1. The Chargers will look to halt that momentum on Sunday but will have to do so on the road in Kansas City.
Here are four reasons to worry that LA will drop to 2-4 instead.
Sputtering rushing attack
The Chargers have failed to generate many positive plays on the ground since Week 1’s matchup with the Dolphins, who have turned out to be one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season. Part of that can be attributed to Austin Ekeler’s ankle injury, but Ekeler returned on Monday versus the Cowboys and averaged just 1.9 yards a carry.
LA’s expected rushing yards outside the red zone this season has been just over 3 yards a carry, the worst in the league by over half a yard. That includes Week 1, meaning the Chargers have been even worse since then. Corey Linsley’s absence certainly hasn’t helped with this, but overall run blocking has been underwhelming. We saw the game when LA couldn’t run the ball and Justin Herbert wasn’t perfect on Monday night against Dallas. Kansas City has a real chance to force LA into that game state again, which would make a Chargers win a challenging task.
Defensive development
Kansas City has rounded into one of the best defenses in the league behind the development of several key young players. Pass rusher George Karlaftis is 22nd in the NFL in pass rush win rate, according to PFF, just under Khalil Mack. Linebacker Nick Bolton has become one of the best five players at the position. Cornerback Trent McDuffie is playing like a top-five coverage man this season in what’s quickly becoming a breakout season.
It’s all combined to give the Chiefs a top-ten defense by DVOA after years of mediocrity, not that it’s mattered for Kansas City’s championship aspirations in recent seasons. But with the offense still finding their groove – they’re sixth in DVOA, but that counts as a down year – the Chiefs have been winning games with their defense.
That’s another issue for the Chargers, who have pushed the Chiefs to the brink in their recent matchups by turning games into shootouts. The last four games with Kansas City have had point totals of 54, 62, 51, and 57, with neither team scoring less than 24 in any of the matchups. If the Chiefs’ defense can limit LA’s offense on Sunday, it’ll be a big ask to have the Chargers’ defense keep pace for LA to win ugly.
Keenan Allen kryptonite
Despite having over 1,000 yards against the Chiefs in his career, Allen hasn’t gone over 100 yards against Kansas City since 2018, when he had eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. That’s despite him drawing at least ten targets in the following games, except last November’s matchup when he only had eight.
On Sunday, this trend meets the reality of the 2023 season: LA’s offense runs through Allen. This season, his 11 targets per game are tied for third-most in the league behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. Allen’s 42 receptions are also tied for fifth most in the NFL, tied with AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill.
In the past, when Kansas City has limited Allen, Los Angeles has been able to turn to Mike Williams, who has been a Chiefs killer in his career. But with Williams out for the season with a torn ACL, a new Chargers receiver will have to begin their legacy if the Chiefs can contain Allen. Maybe that’s Josh Palmer, who was on track for a 100-yard game, if not for penalties against the Cowboys. Maybe it’s Quentin Johnston, the first-round draft pick who’s been mainly running cardio routes to start the season. Whoever it is, the Chargers would rely on a breakout performance against a quality defense.
Line movement
Chris Jones, as it turns out, is pretty good at football. The former NFL Defensive Player of the Year is 12th in the league in pass rush win rate according to PFF and third among interior defensive linemen. LA’s interior offensive line has been sufficient but not stellar this season, with two young guards still growing into the NFL game and fill-in center Will Clapp now dealing with a knee issue.
Kansas City will only add reinforcements this week, with Charles Omenihu eligible to return from suspension. Omenihu was a solid contributor for the 49ers last season and signed with the Chiefs on a two-year, $16 million contract this offseason. Kansas City hasn’t been able to pair Jones with another pass-rushing presence on the inside – Tershawn Wharton has a pass-rush win rate of 2.1% on 99 snaps and Derrick Nnadi has a win rate of 1.2% on 89 snaps. Those are both dismal numbers, but Omenihu finished last season 11th in win rate, ahead of names like Maxx Crosby and Josh Allen.
That puts more pressure on a Chargers unit that has been good but not great, with errors in crucial moments that have worsened its perception.
