KEY POINTS
- Polymarket bettors believe chances for a Bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days of Trump 2.0 are not so high anymore.
- Earlier this month, chances shot up as high as 48% but now, the odds have plummeted to 16%
- Crypto bettors on the platform believe it's not feasible to get a digital asset reserve established within a short period
- Others believe the EO's 'within 180 days' language only solidifies their no bets
Cryptocurrency bettors on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket appear to be losing hope that U.S. President Donald Trump will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) within the first 100 days of his second presidency.
As of early Friday, odds for a Bitcoin reserve have plunged to 16% from 48% on Jan. 19, marking a significant decrease in crypto users on the platform betting on a national BTC treasury in the U.S.
What Polymarket Bettors are Saying
Crypto users on the popular betting platform have different reasons for why they are betting No on a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the first three months of Trump 2.0.
One user argued that while the U.S. president does wield power in the White House, establishing a reserve around digital assets will require "foresight, unity, and strategy – a rare alignment of forces."
Republicans have regained majority of the Senate and are still the majority within the House of Representatives. The number of pro-innovation GOP lawmakers has also increased in the lead-up to the 2024 elections.
However, some crypto bettors believe it's still not possible for a BTC reserve to be established as soon as May 2025.
Many crypto bettors also pointed out that even if Trump has signed a digital assets-centric executive order, it was very clear on some aspects regarding his order for a "national digital asset stockpile."
As per the EO, Trump ordered the Working Group to submit a report regarding the provisions in the order "within 180 days" after the EO's signing, which means Trump isn't necessarily rushing to establish a crypto reserve and instead wants to take time to assess such a treasury.
180 days is way past the 100-day period, and the president also noted that the working group should hold public hearing and coordinate with industry leaders to ensure that it receives appropriate guidance from key players – naturally, such a process will take several months.
The Battle for Digital Asset Reserve Supremacy
Odds for a Bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days of Trump's presidency dropped significantly at a time when a "turf war" is brewing between Bitcoiners and XRP users, often called the XRP Army.
Bitcoin maximalists believe a national reserve should only be around BTC, being the supreme cryptocurrency and designed to be a store of value.
XRP users, on the other hand, believe that a basket of digital assets, which doesn't limit the reserve to BTC alone but instead considers other notable cryptocurrencies, will be more feasible, especially considering the foundations of diversified investing.
It remains to be seen whether a Bitcoin reserve will be pushed in the U.S. first, or if altcoin creators will continue to call for consideration for the technology around their crypto tokens.
