The Champions League is set for an exciting final day to the new league phase format of the competition, with 25 of the 36 teams still awaiting their fate and fans checking on the permutations to see what result their team needs.
All 18 games will be played at the same time – at 8pm on Wednesday, 29 January, with 16 matches having something on the line.
Liverpool are through but are fighting for bragging rights on the final day as they could finish top of the 36-team league.
Arsenal have one foot over the line, Manchester City are in danger of elimination while Aston Villa and Celtic have a play-off spot but could still finish in the top-eight which would secure them an automatic spot in the last-16.
Champions League Permutations: What British Teams Need In Final League Phase Game
Liverpool (1st)
Arne Slot’s side have already qualified for the last-16 – avoiding the rigmarole of a two-legged play-off.
Liverpool are the only side left with a 100% record winning seven straight games. The only thing they have left to fight for is bragging rights as Barcelona could knock them off top spot in Gameweek 8.
A draw for Liverpool away at PSV Eindhoven would be enough to secure them top spot. If Liverpool lose, they will still finish top if Barcelona fail to beat Atalanta on home soil.
Arsenal (3rd)
Mikel Arteta’s side are 99.9% certain of finishing in the top-eight going into their game with Girona.
A win or draw would see them through and even with a defeat it would take an extraordinary set of results for them to drop into the play-offs.
That includes Inter Milan getting at least a point, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan and Atalanta all taking victories and then two of the teams on 13 points to both win and overcome Arsenal’s huge goal advantage difference.
The Gunners’ goal difference of +12 means they are unlikely to be overtaken by Bayer Leverkusen (+6), Aston Villa (+5), Monaco (+3) and three other teams who are on +2.
Aston Villa (9th)
Aston Villa’s Champions League permutations show that they are guaranteed a play-off spot. However, Unai Emery’s side have eyes on finishing in the top-eight.
A win at home against Celtic and they would have a great chance of avoiding the play-offs. However, they would need one of Bayer Leverkusen, Atalanta, AC Milan or Atletico Madrid to get no better than a draw.
They could also finish ahead of Inter Milan and Arsenal but need those sides to lose and overcome their greater goal difference advantage.
Even if Villa win they will still need to keep an eye on the sides behind them.
Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest are only behind Emery’s side on goal difference. A big win for one of those sides could see them jump Villa on the final day.
Celtic (18th)
Celtic are just one point behind Wednesday’s opponents Aston Villa and are also guaranteed a play-off spot.
They could finish in the top-eight but it would require a victory at Villa Park and have seven other results go their way. That would include a draw between Feyenoord and Lille.
While a victory for Celtic is unlikely to be enough, it could help them avoid a clash with one of Europe’s giants in the play-offs.
If the table stays the same, Celtic would play one of Real Madrid or Bayern Munich in a two-legged play-off.
Manchester City (25th)
Pep Guardiola’s side are in the ‘relegation zone’ of the Champions League and are currently facing elimination.
In terms of Champions League permutations it could not get any simpler for Pep Guardiola’s side. Only a victory will do for the reigning Premier League champions in Gameweek 8.
City host Club Brugge in the final game and will jump ahead of the Belgian side with a victory.
Champions League Permutations: What About The Rest Of Europe?
Barcelona have already qualified for the last-16 while Inter Milan need just a point to finish in the top-eight.
Atletico Madrid, AC Milan and Atalanta would secure their places with a victory, though a draw would be enough if results elsewhere go their way.
Bayer Leverkusen would likely remain in the top-eight if they beat Sparta Prague. A draw or defeat will see them drop out if just one of the 10 clubs below them records a victory.
Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest are all behind Bayer Leverkusen on goal difference alone. Those sides need a win on the final day and hope the teams above them drop points.
Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are likely to remain in the play-offs. That is due to the number of results they would need to go their way.
PSV are assured of a play-off spot, though Club Brugge – also on 11 points – could crash out. If the Belgian side lose to Manchester City, they would need one of Benfica, PSG, Stuttgart or Sporting Lisbon to also suffer defeat.
However, a point for each of those four clubs could see them finish ahead of Club Brugge on goal difference.
Dinamo Zagreb need to beat AC Milan and hope two of Benfica, PSG, Sporting Lisbon, Stuttgart or Manchester City lose.
Shakhtar Donetsk are three points off the play-off spots. They have a minimal chance of qualifying due to their much inferior goal difference to the clubs they could overtake.
