February always seems a long way off when the Champions League knockout draw is made, but this season perhaps more than ever. With a World Cup to be played between now and then, the usual fluctuations of form are likely to be more pronounced, particularly with fatigue and injury. But this is, nonetheless, a fascinating draw, throwing up two of the past three finals.
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City
For Manchester City, after four Premier League titles in the past five seasons, the Champions League remains the grail. It clearly has the talent, but Pep Guardiola’s repeated near-misses in the competition have perhaps damaged confidence. The question now is whether the goals of Erling Haaland can overcome that, or whether the more direct style he necessitates renders City more vulnerable to the counterattacks that have always been its Achilles heel—and it has, of course, been Guardiola’s attempts to guard against that flaw that have repeatedly undermined his sides in the biggest games.
Leipzig’s season began poorly, but there has been a major upturn since Marco Rose replaced Domenico Tedesco as coach in September. Saturday’s 3–1 win at Hoffenheim extended its unbeaten run to 11 games and it has been prolific in that time. The 4–0 win away to Shakhtar was a demonstration of the effectiveness of the front four of Andre Silva supported by Dominik Szoboszlai, Christopher Nkunku and Timo Werner, who should be back from his ankle injury by February. The sides met in the group stage last year, with City winning 6–3 at the Etihad before a 2–1 defeat in Germany with qualification long since secured.
Prediction: Comfortable City win
Club Brugge vs. Benfica
Whether they can sustain it is open to question, but Benfica was one of the delights of the group stage, playing thrilling, open football, based around the probing of Rafa Silva and the incisiveness of João Mário. Roger Schmidt was one of the coming forces of German coaching when he took up an offer to manage Beijing Guoan in 2017 and there has been a sense since his return of having to re-earn his spurs, first at PSV and then at Benfica, who he has eight points clear at the top of the table having dropped just two points all season. There may be some concerns about defensive solidity but, as it showed even more in the 4–3 win over Juventus than the 6–1 win away to Maccabi Haifa that clinched the top spot in the group, there is real attacking verve.
Club Brugge progressed in a very different way, keeping clean sheets in each of its first four games. The Belgian champion secured progress early, which perhaps explains a downturn in the final two group games, but the 4–0 defeat to Porto that cost it the top spot perhaps exposed the true level of Carl Hoefkens’s side.
Prediction: Comfortable Benfica win
IMAGO/Ulrich Hufnagel
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
The hope for Liverpool before a repeat of last season’s Champions League final must be that it is in a better shape by the time the last 16 comes round. Injuries and a general sense of fatigue have hampered it this season, with the rejigged forward line struggling to click, the midfield looking old, the defense making errors and even Virgil van Dijk looking distinctly mortal. Mohamed Salah, though, is returning to form after being redeployed to a more central role, and recent wins over Napoli, Manchester City and Tottenham suggested this is not an unrecoverable slide, even if it has been interspersed with defeats to Leeds and Nottingham Forest.
The defending champions had few difficulties topping a less-than-taxing group and they were comfortable winners of the Clásico. Last season’s triumph was the result of a blend of self-belief, good fortune and the individual excellence in key moments of Karim Benzema, Thibaut Courtois and Luka Modrić rather than a sustained cohesion, which may not be sustainable. Nor has the post-Casemiro midfield really been tested. Madrid’s president Florentino Pérez, arguing for a Super League, expressed disgust last month that his side and Liverpool have met only nine times in competitive games; the 10th and the 11th, though, may be tough.
Prediction: Narrow Liverpool win
AC Milan vs. Tottenham
The Italian champion has lost only twice in Serie A this season, although that is enough to trail a rampant Napoli by six points. It also has in Rafael Leão one of the more exciting forwards in Europe. The ease of its defeats in the two games against Chelsea, though, albeit with an injury-hit side, perhaps hinted both at its limitations and the lingering concern that Serie A sides can be overpowered by those from the Premier League.
Whether Tottenham is any good is anybody’s guess. Injuries to forwards haven’t helped, Spurs have struggled to link midfield to attack in Dejan Kulusevski’s absence and have fallen into a pattern of dismal first halves followed by much-improved displays in the second half. Results have been rather better than performances so far, but if the theory that Antonio Conte has designed his fitness program so his squad peaks in February is correct, Spurs could represent a significant danger.
Prediction: Narrow Tottenham win
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Napoli
Fifth in the Bundesliga, Eintracht Frankfurt may be one of the less fancied sides in Pot B, but its success in the Europa League last season showed just how well-organized it is and how it benefits from a supremely noisy fan culture. What was really striking then was results on the road, progress to the final coming via wins away to Real Betis, Barcelona and West Ham. It beat Marseille away in the group stage and then, when it really needed it, came from behind in Lisbon on the final matchday to defeat Porto and claim runner-up spot in the group.
Napoli, though, represents a major challenge, the most serious from Serie A perhaps since Max Allegri’s first stint in charge of Juventus. It is unbeaten in Serie A, which it tops by six points, and won five out of five in the group before, with qualification secured, succumbing away at Liverpool. The football under Luciano Spalletti, another forgotten man proving his worth again, has been fluid and dynamic and, after the failure of Italy (and Nigeria and Georgia) to qualify for the World Cup, Napoli may not suffer with fatigue quite so significantly as the other contenders.
Prediction: Comfortable Napoli win
IMAGO/Sven Simon
PSG vs. Bayern Munich
How many ways can PSG find to shoot itself in the foot? It was superb in the first half of the opening group game against Juventus, but eased off in the second half so that, although they won 2–1, they came under needless pressure. That was a microcosm of the group as a whole. It seemed to be cruising but was pushed into second by Benfica’s late flurry against Maccabi Haifa, undone ultimately by their home draw against the Portuguese champions, which came as stories broken of Mbappé’s supposed unhappiness at the club. The greatest challenge for Christophe Galtier, as for any PSG manager, is handling the viperous nest of egos. The consequence of that slip-up has been severe.
Union Berlin’s collapse at Leverkusen meant Bayern returned to the top of the Bundesliga at the weekend, but four draws and a defeat at Augsburg have led to a certain amount of debate about Julian Nagelsmann. Six wins out of six in the Champions League group stage may be some counter to that, particularly given it is Europe where Bayern managers are really judged, but Nagelsmann’s past record in major European games is questionable; last season’s quarterfinal defeat to Villarreal followed disappointments with RB Leipzig against Liverpool and PSG.
Prediction: Narrow Bayern win
Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea
In the group stage, Jude Bellingham became just the third teenager (after Kylian Mbappé and Haaland) to score in four successive Champions League games and his importance to Borussia Dortmund is made clear by the fact that he is one of only three ever-presents for the club in the Bundesliga this season. Progress to the last 16 was straightforward enough for Dortmund and, despite losing four games already, it is only three points behind Bundesliga leader Bayern.
Edin Terzić’s side play in the familiar Dortmund way, with a high press. Chelsea would probably love to have such a clearly defined style, but recent defeats to Brighton and Arsenal have shown the limitations of this squad when it is deprived of a couple of key players. There’s a shortfall at wingback and at centre forward, while the injury to N’Golo Kante has left it without a ball-winner in midfield. The sense is that Kepa’s spell of excellent form papered over some cracks. Graham Potter clearly has work to do and come February there may be a sense that European progress is required to ease pressure generated by uncertain domestic form. In USMNT news, Christian Pulisic will line up against his former team, which also features U.S. teammate Gio Reyna.
Prediction: Narrow Chelsea win
Inter Milan vs. Porto
Inter’s start to the season domestically has not been easy, and there has been a good deal of chatter about manager Simone Inzaghi’s position, but he was sustained in the job by two fine counter-attacking performances against Barcelona, which brought a 1–0 win at San Siro and a 3–3 draw at the Camp Nou. The problem is that almost anybody of any substance has counter-attacked effectively against this Barça, and in the two group games against Bayern, Inter was comfortably beaten. But if Romelu Lukaku can rediscover his form and fitness, the threat represented by his partnership with Lautaro Martínez is well-attested.
Porto also suffered a difficult beginning to the season and the sense must be that the gap to Benfica is already too great to challenge domestically. But after losing its first two group games, it showed great resolve to bounce back with four straight wins, including a 4–0 trouncing of Club Brugge in Belgium to take top spot. The Brazilian Evanilson and the Iranian Mehdi Taremi represent a formidable strike pairing.
Prediction: Narrow Porto win
