The new Champions League 2024–25 league phase promises greater competition than the old group stage, paving the way for potential chaos ahead of the round of 16.
Not only did the Champions League expand, allowing 36 teams to now compete in Europe’s top competition, but it also features a fresh, exciting league phase that pits each team against eight different opponents over the next five months.
The top eight teams in the competition automatically advance to the knockout stage while the bottom 12 are eliminated. The remaining 16 clubs will battle in two-legged league play-off matches in which the winners of each tie will make the round of 16.
Outside of Real Madrid making UCL history, the tournament has been impossible to predict over the years. The league phase draw, though, revealed a few key possibilities for some of the biggest clubs in the world, and some are less than favorable.
Manchester City Will Finish Atop the League Phase Standings
Predicting Manchester City to top tables is not exactly bold, but the Citizens look unstoppable ahead of the UCL league phase. Despite Rodri’s injury, the reigning Premier League champions have yet to drop any points in their English campaign and Erling Haaland already has nine goals to his name.
Pep Guardiola’s side was favored to finish first in the league phase standings even before the draw, and now after seeing the clubs it is set to face, Manchester City’s spot in the round of 16 is surely all-but guaranteed. Inter Milan and PSG will be a fine test, but even they are no match for the 2023 Champions League winners.
AC Milan Will Not Advance to the Knockout Rounds
Normally AC Milan would be a strong pick to make the round of 16, especially since the club made the semifinals just two years ago. Yet Paulo Fonseca’s men have only managed a single victory in their 2024–25 Serie A campaign. One of Milan's defeats came against newly promoted side, Parma less than one month ago.
Milan also has one of the toughest league phase schedules for a Pot 2 team; not only must it host a revitalized Liverpool under Arne Slot and the Belgian champions, Club Brugge, but the club also must face the defending European and Spanish champions, Real Madrid, and the reigning Bundesliga winners, Bayer Leverkusen, away from home.
In its current form, Milan is not built to survive the league phase.
PSG Will Settle for a Spot in the Phase Playoff
Paris Saint-Germain is the fourth-ranked team in Pot 1, behind only Real Madrid, Manchester City and Bayern Munich. On paper, the French champion should be a lock to finish in the top eight of the league phase standings and therefore automatically punch a ticket to the knockout rounds.
Luis Enrique’s side, though, must play Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Atlético Madrid and Arsenal as four of its eight league phase opponents. It is no secret PSG has struggled in the past against some of the biggest clubs from Europe’s top leagues, and now, it is left to face them without Kylian Mbappé.
Do not be surprised if the Ligue 1 winners stumble in the league phase and find themselves forced to win a two-legged phase playoff tie to advance in the competition.
Bundesliga Runner-Up Will Finish in the Bottom 12
Stuttgart did the impossible last year and finished above Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, recording its best season since 2007. Just four years ago, the club was relegated from Germany’s top-flight and now it is gearing up for a Champions League berth.
Despite its monumental 2023–24 season, Sebastian Hoeneß's squad was ranked as a Pot 4 team in the UCL and drew almost all superior opponents, including PSG, Real Madrid, Atalanta and Juventus. Even Young Boys look like a formidable threat after defeating Galatasaray to earn a spot in the 2024–25 Champions League.
Stuttgart, meanwhile, could not even come away with three points against Freiburg or Mainz to kick off its 2024–25 Bundesliga campaign. The club’s backline is missing recent departures, Hiroki Ito and Waldemar Anton, and will not be good enough to secure enough gritty results to finish in the top 24.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Champions League 2024–25 League Phase Predictions.
