- In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady at the Yale CEO Caucus finds corporate leaders are miserable about Trump’s trade program.
- The big story: Ukraine accepts peace plan, but tariff war heats up.
- The markets: A dead-cat bounce or the return of the bulls?
- Analyst notes from Wedbush on losing patience with Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs on downgrading U.S. GDP, and Convera on equities.
- Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. How quickly CEO optimism has turned. I’m just back from the Yale CEO Caucus in Washington, where 100 CEOs gathered with 60 big-city mayors, policymakers, and journalists like me to talk off the record about “navigating Trump 2.0.” Gone is the optimistic dream of economic growth spurred by Trump’s pro-business mindset around taxes and regulation. In its place is the grave uncertainty of not knowing what this administration will do next. As the host, Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, noted afterward, the consensus was one of bewilderment, condemnation and a feeling that “Trump’s policies were bad for the U.S. economy.”
Though the attendees identified as 60% Republican to 40% Democrat, the mood was dour. In a flash poll at the summit, 80% of CEOs said they find themselves “apologizing to our international partners for Trump’s capriciousness.” Eighty-five percent oppose his approach to tariffs and think they’re backfiring. Almost all—92%—are now concerned about recession. Indeed, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist just downgraded the entire U.S. economy. Here’s what else leaders were talking about in D.C.:
Opportunity costs – America is in a sweet spot when it comes to the depth of our technology, research institutions and capital markets—not to mention our rule of law and ability to draw top talent. Everyone wanted to come here to do business with the most vigorous economy on earth. CEOs I spoke to worry that we’re getting distracted by paper enemies.
Talent challenges – To address a skills shortage, you invest in education. Instead, we’re cutting funding in the name of DOGE and allegations of antisemitism. CEOs now face having to try and create more jobs with fewer tools to train the people to fill them.
The consumer – U.S. consumers tend to be a remarkably productive, resilient and optimistic bunch. Their hunger to travel, buy homes, educate themselves and make merry has sustained 70% of the U.S. economy—and a lot of economies elsewhere, too. CEOs are watching this closely, but many I spoke to expressed a fear that anger, inflation, and uncertainty aren’t going to spur spending.
And, of course, there’s the challenge of rebuilding trust. One Fortune 500 CEO—who was headed off to a Business Roundtable meeting with Trump—told me he’s stopped making predictions entirely: “I don’t trust that what’s said today will be true tomorrow.”
More news below.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
