Carvana smashed earnings expectations for the third quarter late Thursday, while a key metric swelled again. Carvana stock soared Friday.
Carvana Earnings
Estimates: Analysts, on average, expected Carvana to narrow its net loss per share to 70 cents from $2.67 a year ago, according to FactSet. Revenue was seen falling 17%, year over year, to $2.807 billion.
Analysts projected 77,474 retail unit sales, the first quarter-over-quarter increase since Q2 2022, FactSet shows.
Results: Carvana swung to earnings of $3.60 per share vs. expectations for a loss. Revenue came in at $2.773 billion, down 18% year over year, and also down 7% quarter over quarter, "primarily due to lower retail average selling prices," Carvana said.
In Q3, Carvana sold 80,987 retail units, above analyst expectations but down 21% year over year.
Its total gross profit per unit, or GPU, was $5,952, up 70% vs. the year-ago quarter but down 9% from Q2 2023. Retail GPU was $2,692, up 138% vs. a year ago. Wholesale GPU was $618, up 38% vs. a year ago.
Carvana's GPU is a closely followed metric.
"For the second consecutive quarter, we delivered GPUs that far exceed our 2021 high water marks," CEO Ernie Garcia said in an earnings release.
Outlook: For the current fourth quarter, Carvana guided:
- A sequential decline in retail units sold
- GPU above $5,000 for the third consecutive quarter
- Positive adjusted EBITDA for the third consecutive quarter
For the full year, analysts expect Carvana to lose $3.38 per share, a sharp improvement from a loss of $15.74 in 2022, FactSet shows.
Carvana Stock
Shares of Carvana rocketed nearly 8%, to 32.30, on the stock market today. CVNA stock spiked 15.2% to 29.94 ahead of results Thursday. Carvana stock rebounded from just above the 200-day moving average, the MarketSmith chart shows.
Amid a broad market decline, CVNA stock failed a September breakout attempt, with shares selling off over several weeks. There is no new buy point.
Brick-and-mortar rival CarMax popped 5.2% Friday and is below key levels of support.
CVNA Stock Price Targets
Following the Carvana earnings report, nine analysts on Wall Street lowered price targets on CVNA stock, FactSet shows. One raised.
Stephens analyst Daniel Imbro and RBC analyst Brad Erickson, who both cut price targets, flagged concerns around the trajectory for used vehicle volumes into 2024, while Carvana aims to return to profitable growth. They also saw risk of further capital raise / equity dilution.
"We expect Carvana will demonstrate unit growth next year, but we believe attractive / affordable inventory will continue to be in short supply (due to around 7 million to 8 million fewer new cars sold in recent years)," Imbro wrote. Plus, consumers are struggling with affordability issues, he said.
Used-Car Prices Falling
In October, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote that car dealers, including Carvana and CarMax, are exposed to a decline in pricing of new and used vehicles, which would impact their gross profit margins.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks wholesale prices, fell 3% in the first half of October.
In September, Carvana closed a debt exchange offer with 96% of noteholders. It had announced a deal in July to reduce its debt by $1.2 billion in a quest for growth and profitability.
In August, Carvana raised Q3 earnings guidance, citing "fundamental progress in key business drivers and momentum early in the quarter."
Founded in 2012, Carvana disrupted the auto industry by selling used cars online. It's famous for car vending machines.
The company grew fast during the pandemic used-car boom. Subsequently, when consumers began tightening their belts, Carvana found itself stuck with too many cars for which it had paid too much.
After a collapse in 2022, Carvana stock has surged nearly 580% year to date off a low base, amid improving business trends and a possible short squeeze.
