The main reason Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ill-considered and brutal invasion of Ukraine has so far proved unsuccessful has been the unexpected determination and courage of the Ukrainian people in fighting to keep their independence.
But two other facts have also been crucial: the unexpected unity among members of NATO in backing U.S. initiatives to punish Russia and bolster Ukraine and the degree to which Republicans have provided bipartisan backing for President Joe Biden’s economic, military and moral leadership.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has strongly supported providing funds and military equipment for the Ukrainians, and just last week, former Vice President Mike Pence stressed the importance of continued U.S. backing.
But congressional Republicans are divided on the matter, and there is rising resistance within the House GOP to the administration’s continuing efforts to provide billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine.
As a result, next month’s midterm elections could threaten not only the Democratic hold on the House and Senate, but that bipartisan support for Ukraine at a time when Russian terror tactics make maintenance of U.S. aid more vital than ever, lest all that has been done go for naught.
That threat was articulated last week by House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, who’ll likely be the speaker in a Republican-controlled House, when he warned of growing reluctance among GOP lawmakers to keep the Ukraine aid spigot open.
“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy said in an interview with Punchbowl News. “And then there’s the things [the Biden administration] is not doing domestically. Not doing the border and people begin to weigh that. Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do and it can’t be a blank check.”
That was not an idle threat by McCarthy. Although he has supported funds for Ukraine, 57 House Republicans voted last May against a $40 billion administration aid package for the embattled country. And while many Senate Republicans have not only backed U.S. aid but pushed the administration to use some $1.2 billion in previously voted authority, all but 10 House Republicans voted against a stop-gap spending bill in September that included $12.3 billion more for Ukraine.
To be sure, there have been signs of disquiet in both parties over the administration’s handling of Ukraine.
Just this week, 30 liberal House Democrats urged Biden to seek negotiations with Russia to end the war, the first sign of possible dissent within his own party. However, the group led by Washington state Rep. Pramila Jayapal also said it would continue to support aiding Ukraine, at least for now. A day later, they withdrew it when some signers said they had not been consulted on its release.
But there is far greater division within the GOP.
The chairman of its House Freedom Caucus, Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry, texted its members about the possibility of investigating the Biden administration’s handling of the situation in Ukraine, Axios reported last week. Perry opposed last May’s aid package.
In the text, Axios said, Perry said he was “completely opposed to Russian actions regarding Ukraine” but also opposed to war with Russia. “If these nitwits in this jackwagon administration are blundering us or intentionally marching us to war with Russia, nuclear or otherwise,” it continued, “we’d better start to preserve the evidence so there can be accountability.”
The day after McCarthy’s interview was published, Pence used a speech before a prominent conservative group to criticize those Republicans reluctant to continue aid to Ukraine and made the case for continued help.
"I know there is a rising chorus in our party, including some new voices to our movement, who would have us disengaged with the wider world," Pence said at the Heritage Foundation. But he said, “appeasement has never worked, ever, in history," adding there "can be no room in the conservative movement for apologists to" Putin.
“We must continue to provide Ukraine with the resources to defend themselves,” he said. Two days later, McConnell issued a statement urging the administration to speed delivery of aid to Ukraine.
But McCarthy’s comments may prove prescient because the House is likely to be the key 2023 battleground on Ukraine. Partisan battles on federal funding between a Republican House and the Democratic president are inevitable, and aid for Ukraine is likely to be caught in the middle.
One way to compensate for possible House GOP resistance next year is to seek additional funds this year. When lawmakers reconvene in December, a major agenda item will be funding the government until next Oct. 1. NBC News says some lawmakers are talking of adding another $50 billion for Ukraine to the $65 billion Congress previously voted.
Last Thursday, while campaigning in Pennsylvania, Biden expressed concern about the impact of a Republican House on the effort in Ukraine. “They said that if they win, they’re not likely to fund, to continue to fund Ukraine,” he told reporters, somewhat exaggerating what McCarthy had said.
“These guys don’t get it,” Biden added. “It’s a lot bigger than Ukraine. It’s Eastern Europe. It’s NATO. It’s really serious, serious consequential outcomes.”
That’s because weakening of U.S. support can only help bolster Putin’s gamble that he can outlast the West in the war that has become a proxy for the broader struggle between the world’s autocracies and its democracies.
