To all intents and purposes, Cardiff City and Swansea City are teams with broadly similar capabilities.
Since Cardiff's drop back down into the Championship in 2019, both clubs have followed comparable trends. They both challenged for the play-offs, armed with parachute payments from their stints in the top flight, before dropping into mid-table and, at times, a little further down that ladder.
Swansea are an extremely well-organised side who play eye-catching, pleasing football, but they are not infallible, although Cardiff always make them out to be.
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Since the Swans beat Cardiff, who were then managed by Mark Hudson, back in October, Russell Martin's side endured a run which saw them win only three of their next 20 games, seeing them plummet from fourth to 20th in the table, before beating Bristol City ahead of the most recent international break.
Yet, when the South Wales derby looms, Bluebirds fans are filled with dread. Not because Swansea are some all-conquering, Burnley-like team, but simply because the weight of history is so stacked against them that the result seems inevitable. The dice, for whatever reason, always seems loaded on Swansea's side.
Let's get one thing straight, though, nothing should be taken away from Swansea. They always shoot out of the blocks, impose themselves on Cardiff and take the bull by the horns in these derby games. The talk before the match, certainly in the press room, anyway, is, "If Cardiff get at Swansea early then that's their best chance."
Well, that never seems to happen. That is partly Cardiff's fault, indeed on Saturday they allowed Swansea, one of the best passing teams in the division, to knock the ball about at will and feel their way into the tie. But credit must go to the visitors, who never veer from their game plan and appear confident in what they are trying to implement, orchestrated by the ever-impressive Matt Grimes in the middle of the pitch.
Martin said after his third South Wales derby win back in October that the fact he had faced three different managers in each of his victories had played a part in giving his side the upper hand. On Saturday, he conquered his fourth Bluebirds boss in Sabri Lamouchi.
While there might be some truth to that, it simply does not explain Cardiff's utterly woeful record against their local rivals compared to other teams in the division.
Take a look at the table below. This is Cardiff's last eight league results against the 23 other teams currently in the Championship. It might not come as a huge shock that their record against the Swans is the worst.
The trouble for Cardiff is, since they have defunded the playing squad due to soaring debts and the increasingly harsh financial climate, the prospect of achieving promotion to the Premier League gets more remote by the season. It does, in fact, make the prospect of relegation to League One more likely than getting back up to the top flight, as we have seen this term.
That, like it or not, places even greater emphasis on these South Wales derby matches. With no bigger picture or loftier aim, so to speak, these two matches against Swansea City have a far sharper focus on them for fans and, more often than not, Cardiff come out on the wrong side of the results, which only serves to heighten the negativity hanging over the club.
They are only two games, but they have, and always will, mean so much to the fans. Despite the shocking season Cardiff are having, more than 28,000 people packed into Cardiff City Stadium to cheer the teams on, the most since the Premier League days. The support is still unwavering and it shows just how much these supporters care not only about this fixture, but about their club, which is constantly being put through the wringer.
Since both teams dropped back down into the second tier, they have experienced relatively similar fortunes. If we were to stop the season now, with Cardiff in 21st and Swansea in 15th, then the clubs' average league finishes since the 2019/20 campaign would read; Swansea 10th, Cardiff 13th. Swansea have been in the play-offs twice, Cardiff once.
In that time, the Swans have had only two managers, while Cardiff have had six. Despite comparable results overall over the last four years, Cardiff appear to be in a state of constant turmoil, while Swansea have remained relatively stable.
It is often said to this reporter, tongue in cheek, that "it must never boring covering Cardiff!" That is true, but it would be nice if that was the case for once. It's never boring, but in four years, even the positive times have been fleeting. The charge to the play-offs under Neil Harris with Lee Tomlin in full flow and that unbeaten run under Mick McCarthy, spearheaded by Kieffer Moore, when he first came in have been brief highlights.
Otherwise, it's been a slog for Cardiff back in the second tier. They have had to deal with draining financial troubles behind the scenes, as well as the emotionally and physically absorbing Emiliano Sala ordeal, which is still being played out. These background factors invariably have an impact on the playing squad, which was also ripped up and put back together last summer.
But even so, no matter how you dress it up, the derby results have been inexcusable. Despite playing well for periods against Swansea on Saturday, sloppy, uncharacteristic errors allowed Swansea to score three goals on the Bluebirds' own turf. Swansea have scored nine goals on their last three visits to Cardiff City Stadium, an utterly unacceptable statistic. That will not and will never be tolerated by Cardiff fans.
Cardiff as a club would take umbrage with the school of thought that the derby "means more" to Swansea, but how else do you explain just how blatantly the Swans have the wood over their south Wales rivals more than any other team in the Championship? Swansea being Cardiff's bogey team and their fiercest rivals cannot simply be a coincidence.
What the most recent result means, however, is Swansea have sunk Cardiff further into the mire. The Bluebirds have a game in hand on their relegation rivals, with the rearranged Rotherham United game still to be played, but that 99th-minute Ben Cabango goal stole a point from Cardiff and immediately altered the fans' perspective on the relegation run-in.
One morsel of positivity Cardiff can take from the match is that they did not simply roll over and surrender, as they have done in previous editions of this derby, and showed some heart and fight. Jaden Philogene showed his class again while Sory Kaba, while often ungainly, proved once more he knows where the back of the net is.
Cardiff will need Philogene, Kaba and that fighting spirit if they are to bounce back from yet another wounding defeat by the Swans, because all that matters now is survival. Staying in this division and ensuring there are two more South Wales derbies next season is the only priority.
Lamouchi now has eight games to "save the club", as he likes to put it. Three of their final eight matches are against immediate relegation rivals, starting with McCarthy's Blackpool on Friday. The only way to begin to heal Cardiff fans' hurt is with three points up at Bloomfield Road.
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