Melbourne's future suburban rail loop will return at least $1.10 on every dollar spent, the business and investment case for the multi-billion-dollar project shows.
But the business case does not put a total projected cost of the entire project, raising questions about the accuracy of its cost-benefit analysis.
The report says the first two sections will cost up to $57 billion.
The train route will begin at Cheltenham and run underground to Box Hill and then across Melbourne's north to the Airport, and then south to Werribee — it will not be fully completed until 2053.
The final section between Melbourne Airport and Werribee has no price tag.
The first section dubbed SRL East is expected to cost between $30 billion and $34.5 billion, with work to begin next year and be completed by 2035.
It includes six new stations along an entirely underground route.
The business case estimates a benefit cost of 1.1 to 1.7 for the first two sections — $1.10 to $1.70 return on every dollar invested.
The project is designed to help decentralise Melbourne and stimulate work precincts across the middle and outer ring suburbs.
During a press conference, Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan could not say how much the first two sections would cost.
"This project absolutely stacks up,'' Ms Allan said.
"Victorians voted for the Suburban Rail Loop and we're going to get on with it – it'll change the way our city travels, ensuring every Victorian has access to housing, education and jobs as our state continues to grow."
She said Victoria "couldn't afford to not build" the project.
Ms Allan said the loop would help create more affordable housing close to public transport in the suburbs.
To help fund the project, special precincts from new stations will be set up for development.
Ms Allan also said the project would take 600,000 cars off the road every day.
There would be a number of funding sources for the project, the government said.
Announced just before the 2018 election, the loop has been credited by some Labor insiders as contributing to Daniel Andrews landslide victory, especially victory in Liberal held seats in Eastern Melbourne.
Revamping car registration
Car registration could be a thing of the past for Victorian motorists, who would instead be charged for how much or little they use the state's roads every year.
The bold idea is one of 94 recommendations from Infrastructure Victoria's blueprint for the next 30 years that also features major road and rail projects on top of the Andrews Government's existing list of projects.
There is $100 billion worth of projects recommended to be built over the next 30 years including redeveloping the Royal Melbourne Hospital and rebuilding the Alfred and Austin hospitals.
Infrastructure Victoria was set up by the Andrews government after it won office in 2014 and is charged with providing independent, non-political advice.
The blueprint has taken into account more people working from home due to COVID-19.
More underground rail on the cards
The 30-year strategy calls for the state government to build 3 kilometres of new train tunnels in the City Loop – between Richmond and Parliament, and Flagstaff and North Melbourne stations – to reduce congestion in the City Loop.
"It is an absolute no-brainer,'' Infrastructure Victoria chief executive Michel Masson said.
Work on those tunnels should begin as soon as the Metro Tunnel project is finished, under the plan. The project is due to be completed in 2025.
It's proposed that over the next 30 years, the government must also build Melbourne Metro 2, an underground train line from Clifton Hill to the City, then through Fishermans Bend to Newport.
Mr Masson said the route could provide direct rail access to Southern Cross Station for Geelong.
"It provides exceptional benefits and finishes untangling the city loop in creating a truly resilient metro-style service, turn-up-and-go network," he said.
To help pay for such an expensive project, a business case must be developed in the next five years.
Mr Masson said the government should use development around new stations to help pay for the project.
Suburban train lines should also be extended to Beveridge, Rockbank and Wyndham Vale.
The vision stops short of recommending reviving the East West Link but says government should keep land set aside for a future motorway connecting the Eastern Freeway and CityLink.
Instead, it recommends an outer suburban orbital rail and road corridor to ease freight on city roads once the North East Link is completed.
Plan rooted in climate action
Infrastructure Victoria's plan has a strong emphasis on climate action and encouraging people to use public transport.
As part of this strategy, it wants a move away from registration to a usage charge for motorists.
"It will enable less reliance on cars and more use on public transport and active transport, which is clearly a future I want for my daughters,'' Mr Masson said.
The state is already charging electric vehicle motorists a road user charge along with a discount on registration.
Infrastructure Victoria recommends this model be adopted for all road users.
"Road user charges should ultimately combine a distance charge and a congestion charge at the times and locations of road congestion,'' the report said.
"Low-income and vulnerable Victorians can receive discounts on road user charges, like those for public transport.
"Designers can also consider the implications for those living more remotely and the fairness of the system."
London-style congestion charge suggested
Another weapon the body wants to use to discourage road use is a trial of a controversial congestion charge on vehicles travelling into inner Melbourne.
It's a tax used in other major cities, notably in London, and has been floated by experts before – but Victorian governments have been cool on the idea, worried about political backlash.
Modelling by the infrastructure body shows that there won't be negative equity impacts because drivers in the inner city have "above-average" incomes.
The set-up of a zone bordered by the West Gate Freeway, Alexander Parade, Citylink and Punt Road would be relatively easy and would use number plate recognition technology.
There would also be peak and off-peak tolling on new toll roads like the West Gate Tunnel and North East Link to better spread traffic throughout the day.
In a blow for car park owners, the blueprint calls for the congestion levy – a tax on CBD and inner-city car parks – to be increased and the area covered by it widened.
Abolition of free tram zone in the mix
The report also recommends extending tram routes, including to Fishermans Bend, by 2026, while discounting off-peak public transport fares.
However, it also recommends the state abolish the free tram zone in central Melbourne to improve network performance and equity.
Mr Masson also wants greater investment in buses in suburban Melbourne.
Victoria has already set a target of 50 per cent of all new vehicle sales by 2030 to be zero emission vehicles.
Infrastructure Victoria wants the state to stop registering new petrol and diesel engine cars by 2035.
"To decarbonise and hit net zero emissions by 2050, we think that we have got to go harder and further in regard to making sure that at a point in time, no further petrol of diesel engines will be sold,'' Mr Masson said.
"It's really a trend we are seeing worldwide."
The COVID-19 pandemic has smashed government budgets around the world so under the plan, the state would work existing infrastructure harder.
Mr Masson also says the state needs to use better traffic management, including priority traffic lights and dedicated lanes, to make the system flow better.
Other recommendations include:
- better planning of growth suburbs to include at least a 30 per cent canopy of trees
- building libraries and swimming pools in growth areas
- making homes more energy efficient
- encouraging gas-free homes
The plan for Infrastructure Victoria also makes a series of recommendations to better improve Victoria's regions and agricultural sectors, including better energy supplies.
Concern raised over impact of resource shortages on major projects
Also tabled in Parliament was an auditor-general report into the state's ability to deliver major projects.
With so many projects planned and underway in Victoria and Australia's eastern seaboard, there has been a squeeze on resources, such as aggregate, as well as skilled labour.
The report criticised government departments for a lack of coordination and properly assessing workforce and resources shortages.
"The consequence of this is that the risk of cost overruns and delays will be higher than it needs to be,'' Auditor-General Andrew Greaves found.
He said no agency fully understood the construction industry and public sector's ability to deliver the government's multi-billion-dollar pipeline of projects, or "how effective their work to mitigate resource shortages is".
A Victorian government spokesperson said it was closely monitoring the resources and materials needed to deliver its project pipeline.
She said the government had invested in initiatives to increase capacity – such as the Victorian Tunnelling Centre, operating the Rail Skills Academy and establishing a joint industry forum with New South Wales.
