You might think that in an economic slowdown, use of cannabis products would be likely to increase.
After all, with more time on their hands and more misery to escape from, unemployed folks could be expected to seek some kind of relief.
Certainly, the common trope is that vice sales rise during times of economic uncertainty.
But with banks like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank saying it's a toss-up whether the U.S. economy falls into a recession, there's a more nuanced view developing for the cannabis industry in the coming months.
A key comparison comes with data from the great recession nearly 15 years ago.
Alcohol use "significantly declined during the economic recession," falling from 52% in 2006-2007 to 51.6% in 2008-2009. That translates to 880,000 fewer drinkers, according to an Oxford Academic abstract.
However, at the same time, there was a 770,000 person increase in the prevalence of frequent binging.
In effect there were fewer people drinking, but more intense drinking among those that were.
Cannabis and Alcohol are Different Animals
While cannabis and alcohol aren't necessarily the same type of drug, the alcohol industry does offer some insight into the possible behavior of weed smokers during an economic downturn.
In Colorado, total cannabis sales in April fell 26% year over year to $153 million from $206 million, the Portland Press Herald reported.
Illinois just put out adult use cannabis sales numbers, and while the state will easily top May 2021's levels, $129.8 million in sales during the month did fall sequentially from April's total of $131.8 million and is below February's $130.9 million in sales.
The combined U.S. medical and cannabis industry market could reach $33 billion by the end of this year, according to, MJBizDaily.
Meanwhile, Canadian cannabis companies are showing continued slowing growth, according to New Cannabis Ventures' revenue tracker, despite cannabis sales increasing 3.7% sequentially in April.
An important unknown factor is the effects of broader inflation on cannabis usage.
Americans are paying about 8.6% more for all items, according to the latest Consumer Price Index.
Between gas prices at their peak rising nearly 50% year over year, inflationary pressures and a potential recession, cannabis connoisseurs may have to start making tough choices on what they spend their money on.
That may prove the ultimate test of how committed users are.
