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The Canberra Times
The Canberra Times
Brittney Levinson

Canberrans forking out $1386 more each month since rate rises

How to manage a mortgage in a time of rapidly rising interest rates | October 3, 2022 | ACM

Canberra home owners are likely to see more than $100 added to their monthly mortgage repayments, following the Reserve Bank's seventh consecutive cash rate rise.

That's on top of more than $1250 extra per month some Canberrans could already be forking out since the rate rises began in May.

Data provided to The Canberra Times by comparison website Canstar shows Tuesday's 25 basis point increase to the cash rate would take a Canberra house owner's monthly repayment to $4616, if passed on by their bank in full.

The figure is modelled on an 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio, based on Canberra's current median house value of $990,851.

For a unit holder (based on the median value of $608,653), the rate rise could translate to a $76 increase, taking monthly repayments to $2835.

NAB the first of the big banks to pass on the 0.25 percentage point lift to its home loan customers.

The previous rate rises are already having a significant impact on household budgets.

Canstar's modelling shows a Canberra home owner who purchased a house before the rate rises began could pay $1386 more each month following the latest increase.

Home owners are "far from out of the woods" yet, Canstar editor-at-large Effie Zahos said, with more rate rises predicted for 2023.

"The big four banks have revised their cash rate forecasts following the October inflation figures and are forecasting rates could rise by a further 1.25 per cent by March next year," she said.

"Higher interest rates, slow wage growth and rising unemployment will put a dent in inflation but it also means there's more pain ahead for households and businesses."

Mortgage stress likely to worsen

The burden of higher interest rates is expected to push more Australians into financial stress by the end of the year.

For the three months to September, 948,000 mortgage holders (21.1 per cent) were identified as at risk, up from 272,000 a year ago, the latest Roy Morgan data shows.

The term at risk is based on households that pay more than a certain proportion of their after-tax income - 25 per cent to 45 per cent depending on income and spending - into their home loan.

Despite the increase, the figure is still below the 35.6 per cent (1,455,000 mortgage holders) seen during the Global Financial Crisis in early 2009 and the 15-year average of 22.7 per cent.

However Roy Morgan anticipates more households will be at risk following Tuesday's rate rise and a possible December rise.

Another 25 basis point rise in December would put 26.2 per cent of mortgage holders (1,151,000) at risk, the highest rate since April 2012.

Of more concern is the 611,000 (14.1 per cent) of home owners who were deemed extremely at risk in September.

Roy Morgan chief excutive officer Michele Levine said it is important to note interest rates are just one factor to be considered.

"The variable that has the largest impact on whether a borrower falls into the at risk category is related to household income - which is directly related to employment," she said.

"These figures show that as long as employment levels remain strong the number of mortgage holders considered 'at risk' will not increase to anywhere near the levels experienced during the Global Financial Crisis."

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Rate rises are expected to add further stress to Canberra households. Picture by Elesa Kurtz
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