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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday he’s focused on the work ahead after the ruling Liberals lost in another by-election, raising more questions about his ability to lead the party into the next federal election.
For the second time in recent months the Liberals lost in a former stronghold when the Bloc Quebecois won the vote in the electoral district of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun Monday in Montreal in a tight three-way race with the New Democratic Party.
“Obviously it would have been nicer to be able to win . . . but there’s more work to do,” Trudeau said in Ottawa.
“The big thing is to make sure that Canadians understand the choice they get to make in the next election," Trudeau said. "That’s the work we’re going to continue to do.”
Election Canada results show the Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauve finished with 28% of the vote. Liberals' candidate Laura Palestini collected 27.2% and finished just 248 votes behind the winner. The NDP collected 26.1% and was about 600 votes behind the winner.
It’s the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party has lost a by-election in a riding they held for years. In June, the Conservatives narrowly defeated the Liberals in Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election.
Monday's loss “is a major blow for the Liberals,” said Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.
“This is a riding we would expect them to win under normal circumstances,” Beland said in an email. “Not only did this not happen, they lost by nearly 16 percentage points in popular votes compared to their score in the riding back in 2021, when they had easily won there.”
Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal supporter and strategist, posted on social media that the loss is “yet another nail in Justin Trudeau’s coffin.”
“If Trudeau’s Liberals can’t hold this safe seat, it will spell even bigger trouble for the party’s prospects in Quebec and across Canada in a critical election year,” Perez said in a statement before the final vote.
Beland doesn’t believe Trudeau will step down as party leader before the next election, which is scheduled for next fall.
“Some Liberals might try to convince him to step down but it’s not sure at all he would,” said Beland.
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne was asked Tuesday if Trudeau should remain as prime minister.
Champagne said there is “concern, there’s anxiety” among Canadian voters.
“They’re ready for a positive vision of the country,” he said. “I think if there’s someone who can really inspire Canadians, it’s Justin Trudeau.
Most polls show the federal Conservatives well ahead of the Liberals. Trudeau is also very unpopular with many Canadians.
The NDP recently ended its supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals that helped keep the minority government in power. That led to speculation there could be an early federal election.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has said his party plans to put forward a non-confidence motion “at the earliest possible opportunity” in hopes of bringing down the Liberal government.
Neither the NDP nor Bloc, a party based only in Quebec and devoted to Quebec sovereignty, has said if they will help bring the government down.
Beland said it’s difficult to predict if there will be an early election.
“It seems that only the Conservatives want a federal election right now so either the Bloc or the NDP could still decide to support the Liberals at the next confidence vote,” he said. “They (the Liberals) only need the support of one of these opposition parties to stay alive.”
In another by-election Monday, the NDP held onto its seat in Winnipeg in a race closer than previous votes. The NDP defeated the Conservative candidate by 1,200 votes.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh took to social media to call the decision “a big victory.”
