Canada and the US have issued a rare public notice over planned military exercises in the Arctic amid growing concern over Russian aggression.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command said on Tuesday that it would hold air defence exercises throughout the Canadian Arctic, adding that the drills were meant to test the ability to “respond to both aircraft and cruise missiles” threatening the continent.
Operation Noble Defender has been a recurring event in recent years, but the drills have taken on new meaning in the weeks since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking at a defence conference before the operation, Canada’s top soldier said that while the threat of a Russian incursion into Canada’s Arctic was low at the moment, he would not rule it out in years to come.
Gen Wayne Eyre, the chief of defence staff, said it was “not inconceivable that our sovereignty may be challenged” from the Arctic region and that Canada needed to closely watch Russian action elsewhere.
In recent years, Russia has increased its military presence in land bases in the Arctic, and launched a string of provocative aerial missions. Two years ago, a pair of long-range Russian bombers buzzed Canadian airspace before turning back. The TU-160 Blackjack bombers, capable of carrying nuclear missiles, crossed the North Pole and approached Canada from western Russia.
Experts agree that any overt military aggression in the Arctic would probably take the form of attacks from the air and sea, rather than the land. Russia has previously tested hypersonic missiles that would be difficult, if not impossible, to detect with much of the current technology deployed in the Arctic.
Moscow’s brazen attack on Ukraine three weeks ago has renewed worries the Russian president has become increasingly unpredictable – and raising tensions in other regions where Russia has shown signs of aggression.
“If Putin were rational, it’d be a different story,” said the retired Canadian colonel Pierre Leblanc, who spent years overseeing troops in the northern reaches of the country. “But he’s forcing us to destroy his country’s economy. And despite all the threats, all the sanctions, he continues to bomb civilian targets, and commit war crimes.”
Despite the vulnerabilities of the region, Leblanc said successive Canadian governments had failed to modernize early warning systems and neglected the development of military bases and deep water ports.
He pointed out a gap of 2,800km between Inuvik and Iqaluit, the two forward operating locations for Canada’s F-18 planes, leaving vast swaths of land and sea exposed and difficult to patrol.
At the same time, the technology behind short-range radar used to guard the region is “largely obsolete” and that parts used in repairs are no longer manufactured.
“If you placed all of continental Europe in the Canadian Arctic, there’d be room to spare. So when we sending out monitoring ships, it would be the equivalent of sending out two ships to monitor all of Europe. If you suggested that, you’d be laughed out of the room.”
In recent years, Leblanc has become a strong advocate for developing a base and deep water port in Resolute Bay and believes greater investment in the region would create jobs for Inuit communities.
Earlier this month, the Inuit-run Nasittuq Corporation was announced as the winner of a C$592m (US$464m) contract to operate the North Warning System, a 37-year-old network of dozens of remotely operated radar stations stretching more than 5,000km along the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The radar system functions as a critical set of eyes on the region’s airspace but needs significant upgrades.
But Michael Byers, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia who focuses on Arctic issues, argued that Russia had little incentive to show aggression in the Canadian Arctic.
“[It’s] the largest country in the world and it has considerable Arctic resources of its own. There’s nothing in Canada that Russia doesn’t have,” he said. He added that Moscow knew that any military interference in the Canadian Arctic could be a “tripwire into a full-blown” conflict with Nato.
Instead, he said, Canada and allies should focus on the European Arctic, where Russia has a network of submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles.
“The idea that we need to be worried about a Russian invasion strikes me as misleading, because we know where the real concern is,” said Byers. “The real concern is in Europe, today.”
Still, Leblanc said the recent events in Ukraine had highlighted the importance of planning for future events, even if the odds of military attacks remained low.
“We have very little resources to actually look after a beautiful part of our country,” he said. “Ukrainians are dying for their land. We barely protect ours.”
