Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer 2022 Stock Market Prediction

Despite the choppy waters of the market, there have been a few analysts who were on top of the market action. Those who saw the warning signs well-before the bear market grabbed hold of the S&P 500. Among those analysts: Tony Dwyer, of Canaccord Genuity.

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Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer Predicted 2022’s First-half Correction

Tony Dwyer of Canaccord deserves a lot of credit. Not only because he’s been spot on with his 2022 predictions, but for the amount of predictions he’s been willing to make amid so much uncertainty.

While many strategists restrict themselves to making open-ended, hedged statements like the famous, “With a 5-to-10 year time horizon, we think- ”, or the often repeated, “It’s time to buy solid, high-quality names.” Tony Dwyer hasn’t been afraid to make bold, highly specific market calls. That’s exactly what he did on January 11th, when he called for a broad market correction with the S&P trading near all-time-highs:

“When the S&P is up 25% in a calendar year, each time (since 1980) it’s had a correction [...] early in the year.”

Dwyer said that once the market sold off he would be interested in buying into select oversold areas — and that’s exactly what happened. The S&P 500 fell almost immediately, briefly entering correction territory, making January 2022 the worst January for the stock market since 2009. Still, stocks weren’t quite oversold enough to trigger Tony’s oversold signal just yet — and they would continue to fall for months.

Tony Calls the Summer Rally

By early Summer, Tony Dwyer began to see the first sign of those oversold conditions. The Canaccord fund manager took to CNBC once again to call an upcoming bounce in the market, specifically in beaten down sectors like tech and consumer discretionary.

“We are going to get an oversold bounce. Sentiment and my tactical indicators are about as bad as they get [...] What’s done the worst could bounce the most.”

In the following month, that’s exactly what took place. While the S&P rallied as much as 17.5% off the June lows, stocks within Tony’s target sectors like Amazon (a top holding in both the tech and consumer discretionary sector) would ultimately rally far more — running more than 41% off the June lows in the case of Amazon.

But what does Tony think now?

Tony Dwyer Says Don’t Rush in and Buy This Rally Until the “Fall-fall”

Despite the market delivering on Tony Dwyer’s tech-heavy summer rally, this analyst isn’t issuing the all-clear for markets just yet — especially at these prices. In August, Tony Dwyer said in an interview,

“Our call is the Fall-fall. So, once we look through the Summer rally (which I think we’re pretty close), you get the Fall-fall. [...] Not only has the Fed not started easing — they’re actually telling you they’re almost going to double rates from here. So I’m having a hard time wanting to buy stocks when they’re up 14%.”

One week later, following the soft July-CPI print, Dwyer gave yet another interview where he expounded on his end-of-year thesis. Asked by CNBC anchor Sara Eisen, “So you think this is just the final innings of the Summer rally?”, Tony said,

“Yeah I do. But forget about my opinion, you know I’m about the data. Remember the indicator that we use — the 10-day rate of change on the S&P 500. When you have it drop by 15%, and then pivot higher [...] the only time where you don’t have some retest of the lows [...] is when the Fed already started easing. Obviously, that’s not the case.”

What Tony Dwyer’s saying is that history suggests the market might pull back from here to retest the June lows, which clocked in at $3,636.37. Tony Dwyer believes this potential second-half dip (Or the “Fall-fall”, as he calls it) will be triggered by economic weakness as the effects of consistent Fed rate hikes begin to take effect.

In short: Tony Dwyer isn’t buying at these levels, and if the data is right, the market may be in for a bumpy ride this fall.

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