Donald Trump made history in becoming the first president in US history to be impeached twice by the House of Representatives.
But while losing to Joe Biden in November 2020 may have dented the one-term president’s pride and fuelled 18-months of lies about rigged ballot boxes, it now seems almost certain that Mr Trump will run again for the White House in 2024.
Mr Trump has not stopped fundraising since moving from Washington DC to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, amassing a war chest of well over $100m with which he can help boost Republicans who backed his “Big Lie” to defeat those in the GOP who did not.
And Mr Trump has been back out on the road this year ahead of the midterm elections. He’s been holding MAGA rallies in state after state with candidates he’s endorsed, insisting to crowds that he did not legitimately lose to Mr Biden and repeatedly hinting that he plans on avenging his defeat by running again.
With under two weeks until Americans head to the polls for the midterm elections, Mr Trump is set to address his signature rallies in multiple states, including a swing through Pennsylvania and a stop in his adopted home state of Florida that will feature Senator Marco Rubio but not his former ally and potential 2024 rival, Governor Ron DeSantis.
Mr Trump is widely expected to announce plans for a third presidential campaign after the midterms. And while some other potential candidates, such as Mr DeSantis and his ex-vice president, Mike Pence, do not appear to be considering the ex-president’s plans, it’s unclear whether either could garner enough GOP primary voters to claim the 2024 nomination.
So what, if anything, could stop him?
Impeached and acquitted twice
The ex-president’s run for a second term became a possibility in February 2021 when the Senate failed to convict him at his second impeachment trial, which was the shortest in presidential history.
He had already been impeached by the Democratic-run House of Representatives on one charge of incitement for urging his supporters to “fight like hell” before they attacked the Capitol on January 6.
Had the Senate voted to convict, Mr Trump could have been barred from ever standing again. Under the Constitution, “judgment in cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honour, trust or profit under the United States”.
However, only seven Republicans voted to convict, along with all 50 Democrats on 13 February 2021 – thus falling short of the two-thirds majority needed to find the former president guilty.
Trump’s hold on Republican party is overwhelming
Today, Mr Trump’s hold on the Republican party is overwhelming, and none of this year’s major candidates have broken from the former reality TV host. But that does not mean he faces no obstacles to a return to the White House.
In reality, the biggest hurdle he may face could be a legal rather than electoral one.
Mr Trump is fighting law enforcement investigations on several fronts.
The Trump Organization is on trial
After three years of investigations by Manhattan prosecutors, Mr Trump’s company The Trump Organization is on trial accused of aiding some of its top executives to avoid paying income taxes on the compensation they received in top of their salaries, such as rent-free apartments and expensive vehicles.
The trial began on 24 October with jury selection.
New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg has said that his office’s investigation into Mr Trump is “active and ongoing”, adding that no decision has been made on if Mr Trump may face criminal charges at a later date.
Mr Trump has called the investigation a “political witch hunt”.
The Trump Organization has rejected all claims of wrongdoing and said it looks forward to “to having our day in court”.
Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer, is expected to be the main witness. In August, he pled guilty to receiving untaxed benefits valued at $1.7m.
Lawsuit filed by New York attorney general
In a separate case, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a civil lawsuit last month accusing Mr Trump and the Trump Organization of misleading banks and other investors over the course of years concerning the value of Mr Trump’s assets.
The lawsuit is seeking $250m and a lifetime ban on Mr Trump operating businesses in the state of New York. A court hearing has been set for 31 October.
Trump sued for defamation after blasting rape claim
Mr Trump also faces a defamation case from writer E Jean Carroll, who sued Trump for defamation in 2019 in state court after he called her a liar for saying he raped her in a New York department store dressing room in the mid-1990s.
In denying her claims, Mr Trump said that she was “not his type”, and alleged she had made up the claim to help the sales of her book.
Trump spokesperson Liz Harrington posted a statement by the former president on Truth Social ahead of his deposition in the case on 19 October.
“You have to fight for years, and spend a fortune, in order to get your reputation back from liars, cheaters, and hacks…It is a Hoax and a lie, just like all the other Hoaxes that have been played on me for the past seven years,” Mr Trump said in part.
“And, while I am not supposed to say it, I will. This woman is not my type! She has no idea what day, what week, what month, what year, or what decade this so-called ‘event’ supposedly took place,” he added.
The new statement may open Mr Trump up to a new defamation claim, according to legal experts, as he launched the verbal assault as a private citizen and not as the president of the United States.
The classified documents brought to Mar-a-Lago
The FBI and the Department of Justice are also continuing their investigation of Mr Trump’s handling of classified documents after leaving the White House.
Georgia election investigation
In addition, a special grand jury in Georgia is investigating if Mr Trump and his allies tried to influence election officials in the state.
Subpoenaed by January 6 committee
During its last hearing, the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 insurrection voted unanimously to subpoena Mr Trump.
If Trump is convicted, he could still run
As things currently stand, Mr Trump could run again. If he is convicted of a crime, it is still possible he could run.
Slate reported legal professor Kate Shaw as saying: “When we’re talking about federal office, the limitations would really be political, not legal.”
“The Constitution actually is really clear about what the qualifications to run for president, or a member of Congress or Senate are.”
In the annals of US political history, only three elected officials have ever been permanently barred from holding future office: former federal judges West Humphreys, Robert Archibald, and Thomas Porteous.
Trump likely to win GOP nomination
While the 2024 presidential election is still two years away, Mr Trump appears likely to win his party’s nomination should he decide to run again.
In a YouGov poll conducted between 17 and 19 October, 53 per cent of GOP primary voters said they preferred Mr Trump, to 29 per cent for Mr DeSantis and six per cent for Mr Pence.
Meanwhile, Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger, who is not running for re-election, has said he “would love” to run against Mr Trump in a primary election “even if he crushed me”.
