Earlier this week, an interesting data point surfaced, thanks to the great New York Knicks-centric Twitter account of Rit Holtzman (@BenRitholtzNBA).
NYK vs 5-on-KAT, primarily drop teams (IND, MIA, DET):
3-0, 130 points/100 possessions
NYK vs wing-on-KAT, switching teams (BOS, CLE, HOU):
0-3, 113.4 points/100 possessions https://t.co/Yvdon7XA8y
— Rit Holtzman (@BenRitholtzNBA) November 5, 2024
Since that tweet, the stat has changed slightly. The Knicks continue to be winless against switching teams, but are now 3-1 against drop-centric defenses. So, what’s going on here, and what does it mean for Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks long-term?
What’s Happening?
In those four games against drop coverage, Towns is averaging 30 points on 67.8 percent true shooting. In three games against switching teams, those numbers shrink to 14 points on 55.3 percent true shooting.
Part of the story is the three teams that do more switching are just flat-out better defensive teams with stronger defensive personnel. All three of those teams — the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets — are currently top nine in defensive rating. Meanwhile, outside of the Miami Heat (which are still only 13th), all of those other teams are in the bottom ten in defensive rating. Great defenses make life harder on offenses, even healthy ones like the Knicks (fourth in offensive rating).
Another piece of the puzzle relates to what this does to the Jalen Brunson-Towns pick-and-roll. One tradeoff of using drop coverage is that leaves the defense vulnerable to pick-and-pops. As one of the greatest shooting big men ever, Towns feasts against this coverage.
When teams properly switch the pick-and-roll — something good defenses tend to do — it eliminates the opportunity to take these pick-and-pop 3-pointers. That’s why Towns’ 3-point attempts decline from 5.5 per game against drop teams to two per game against switching teams.
Towns has a robust frame (7 feet, 248 pounds), but he isn’t the burly bruiser that, say, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are. As a result, these good defenses can get away with putting well-built forwards on him. For instance, in the Knicks’ game against the Houston Rockets on Monday, the 6-foot-6, 220-pound Dillon Brooks limited Towns to 4-of-10 shooting from the floor, per NBA.com.
But even then, per Synergy Sports, Towns is still scoring 1 point per chance against switches, which ranks in the 69th percentile league-wide. This isn’t elite, but it also isn’t a death sentence for the offense. What else could be contributing to New York’s collective struggles offensively against switch-heavy teams?
The Josh Hart Problem
Sporting News’ Steph Noh — one of the best writers in the business — posted this tweet the night of the Knicks’ season opener against the Boston Celtics.
The Knicks have a Josh Hart problem. Celtics threw their centers on him and ignored him throughout the game. pic.twitter.com/zCsnzv3NLh
— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) October 23, 2024
This gets at why teams want to put non-centers on Towns. As a carer 40 percent 3-point shooter, he’s a masterful spacer. So, his defender is always hanging around the perimeter. You don’t want your center spending too much time over there because it opens the paint for easier scoring chances from the opposition. You want them near the rim, protecting the most precious region of the court.
To remedy this, great defenses — which have wings who can handle players like Towns — will place a non-center on him and move their center to the opposing team’s worst shooter. With the Knicks, that player is Hart, who’s a 29.6 percent 3-point shooter this year and 34.3 percent for his career.
The forward pays Towns his proper due diligence, while the center ignores Hart and offers reinforcements in the paint.
In fairness, Hart does better than most players against this strategy. He pushes the pace in transition to avoid half-court sequences), cuts, operates well as a screener and pulls the trigger on open threes to maintain offensive flow. But even with his best efforts, the offense loses a couple of miles off its fastball, which is particularly relevant for New York as it aims to make a championship run this season. The impact of marginal differences like this are magnified in the playoffs.
Outside of the paint being better fortified, this hurts the Knicks’ offense because it takes the teeth out of Brunson-Towns pick-and-rolls. Brunson handles switches OK, but he is much more efficient against traditional coverages. Synergy grades Brunson’s performance against switches on ball-screens as “average,” whereas he earns a “good” score against Over/Under/Ice coverages.
To avoid Brunson handling a high volume of switches, the Knicks have gone with more pick-and-rolls featuring Hart as the screener, which involves opposing centers. Hart has fared well in these spots (68th percentile in points per chance as a screener). But the Knicks are still leaving something on the table by using Hart instead of Towns because he lacks the center’s duality as a roller and popper.
Towns Isn’t Without Blame
Towns isn’t completely innocent. As we mentioned earlier, defenses with the right personnel feel comfortable switching against him because he isn’t incredibly physical. This applies both in the mid-post — where Towns often operates — and on the offensive glass.
Towns is a good offensive rebounder, but not a great one. Between 2019 and 2024, he never finished higher than the 53rd percentile in offensive rebounding rate among bigs, per Cleaning the Glass. During his minutes this year, the Knicks are only in the 55th percentile in offensive rebounding percentage. Teams can profit off of putting a smaller player on Towns without having to suffer too many consequences because he doesn’t maximize his size advantage in these spots.
Further evidence of teams not fearing Towns’ offensive rebounding is seen in how they shift matchups against Jericho Sims, who’s a more assertive force on the glass. When Sims was on the floor against the Rockets, he was defended by a big man, while Hart was shadowed by a wing.
Long-Term Ramifications
To go deep in the playoffs, as Knicks aspire for, you must fit one of three team molds. You need to be an elite offense, an elite defense or a balanced blend of both (top 10 on each side).
As the 20th-ranked defense, the Knicks probably won’t qualify for the latter two categories; maybe, the eventual return of Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa changes things, though. But as it stands, they will likely need to be an elite offense. The Knicks are a potent machine on that side of the ball, but there is a weakness formidable foes can poke at to slow their efficiency.
It isn’t all doom and gloom for the Knicks, however. Solutions, like closing with Miles McBride, do exist. Head coach Tom Thibodeau just has to get in the lab and throw darts at the wall. Fortunately, the regular season is the perfect place to do that, and there are plenty more opportunities ahead for them.
